Kateryna Chornovol22:58, 31.07.24

It is not yet clear how tough Iran’s response will be.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has ordered a direct strike on Israel in response to the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran , The New York Times reported, citing three Iranian officials.

“Khamenei gave the order at an emergency meeting of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council on Wednesday morning, shortly after Iran announced Mr. Haniyeh’s killing, three Iranian officials, including two members of the Revolutionary Guard, said. They asked not to be identified because they do not have permission to speak publicly. Iran and Hamas have accused Israel of the killing. Israel, which is fighting Hamas in the Gaza Strip, has neither acknowledged nor denied the killing of Mr. Haniyeh, who was in Tehran for the inauguration of Iran’s new president. Israel has a long history of assassinating enemies abroad, including Iranian nuclear scientists and military commanders,” the newspaper wrote.

It is unclear how tough Iran’s response will be, or whether it will calibrate its attack to avoid escalation as it did in April. Iran’s military is considering another combined drone and missile attack on military targets near Tel Aviv and Haifa, but will try to avoid hitting civilian targets, Iranian officials have said.

One option being considered is a coordinated attack by Iran and other fronts where it has allied forces – including Yemen, Syria and Iraq – to achieve “maximum effect”.

“Khamenei, who has final say in all government affairs and is also commander-in-chief of the armed forces, has instructed Revolutionary Guard and army commanders to prepare both offensive and defensive plans in case the war widens and Israel or the United States strikes Iran, officials said. In his public statement on Mr. Haniyeh’s death, Khamenei signaled that Iran would respond directly, saying “we consider avenging his blood our duty” because it occurred on the territory of the Islamic Republic. He said Israel had created the conditions for “severe punishment,” the reporters said.

Statements by other Iranian officials, including new President Masoud Pezeshkian, the Foreign Ministry, the Guard Corps and Iran’s UN mission, have also openly stated that Iran will respond to Israel and that it has the right to defend itself against attacks on its sovereignty.

It is noted that the killing of the Hamas leader shocked Iranian officials, who called it “crossing red lines.”

“It was a humiliating security breach for a country eager to project strength but long frustrated by its inability to stop Israel from conducting covert operations on its soil. The embarrassment was heightened by Mr. Haniyeh’s high profile, the presence of other allies and the fact that he was attacked in a high-security Revolutionary Guard compound on a high-security day in the capital,” the Times notes.

Iranian officials view Mr. Haniyeh’s killing not only as an opportunistic assassination by Israel of one of its enemies, but also as an affront to their security apparatus, demonstrating that anyone in Iran, at any level, can be targeted and killed.

Analysts, however, say Iran sees revenge as necessary “both to avenge Mr. Haniyeh’s killing and to deter Israel from killing other powerful enemies,” such as Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah or Gen. Ismail Qaani, the Quds Force commander who controls militant groups outside Iran.

“Iran likely feels it has no choice but to respond in order to deter further Israeli attacks, protect its sovereignty and maintain its credibility in the eyes of its regional partners,” said Ali Vaez, Iran director at the International Crisis Group.

Assassination of Hamas leader

On July 31, the leader of the political wing of the Palestinian group Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed in his residence in Tehran. One of his guards was killed along with him. It was reported that his house was hit by a missile fired from an airplane.

Iran’s UN envoy Saeed Iravani later said Iran would carry out a “special operation” against Israel in retaliation for Haniyeh’s assassination.

(C)UNIAN 2024