BY LAURA KELLY – 02/16/24

The GOP chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee was bullish Friday on the chamber delivering U.S. military assistance to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, despite the “brainwashing” of some within his caucus who oppose foreign spending because of the crisis at the southern border.

Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas) said Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) was committed to eventually moving President Biden’s national security supplemental request, though the pathway remains unclear amid fierce pushback from the far right of the GOP.

Speaking during a discussion hosted by the Christian Science Monitor in Washington, D.C., McCaul said Johnson faces two challenging options: bring the supplemental to the floor and face a potential move to oust him from the far right, or let Ukraine backers in the party force the vote and undermine his power.

“I think that’s going to be a difficult choice for him, because if they’re threatening a motion to vacate, it’s a tough decision,” he said, referring to the rule that allows one member to force a vote on removing the Speaker from his position.

“I don’t see anyway of getting out of Israel, Indo Pacific and eventually Ukraine coming to the floor. He’s either going to have to do it — put it on the floor himself — or it’s going to be by virtue of a discharge petition, which is a complete evisceration of his power, because it basically says we’re going to do this without the Speaker being in charge,” the chairman continued.

Lawmakers could “discharge” legislation if a majority of members signed onto a petition to release it – a difficult path that would require most Democrats teaming up with at least a handful of Republicans. While Republicans hold a slim majority, Democrats could lose members of their own party in a discharge petition vote over progressive opposition to sending U.S. military support for Israel.

McCaul said Democrats would struggle to win over Republicans, even if they are supportive of Ukraine.

“I think Republicans supportive of Ukraine wouldn’t support a discharge, because it’s really going around leadership altogether,” McCaul said.

On the other side of the conference, McCaul said convincing the GOP’s Ukraine skeptics to back the supplemental would also be an uphill fight. 

“There are some [House Republicans] that I don’t think can be persuaded, because the narrative is so strong. I think the sort-of brainwashing, if you will, that we have to choose between our southern border and Ukraine, has been out there. I don’t agree with that,” McCaul said . 

“I think it’s a false dichotomy. We’re a great nation, and we can do both. I live in Texas. But I think we have to explain to the American people why Ukraine is a national security interest; it directly impacts China and has an impact with Iran and our adversaries.” 

House leaders said the Senate-passed $95 billion aid package for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan was “dead on arrival” earlier this month. Johnson has rejected the bill outright because it doesn’t include changes to immigration policy, despite House Republicans also killing a bipartisan Senate deal on the border. 

McCaul said there’s urgency to pass some sort of aid for Ukraine that would impact Ukrainian plans to launch another counteroffensive against Russia by April. He said the House is likely to focus on funding the U.S. government before a March 8 deadline and then focus on passing more aid for Ukraine.

“On the urgency, I think there are many of us who understand that, but there are many who don’t. I know that April’s been the time frame for Ukraine for another potential counteroffensive,” he said.

“They may have to delay it by a month or two, depending on how soon this can all be put in place.”

McCaul described Johnson as “committed” to providing military assistance to allies abroad, saying the Speaker takes his advice, along with that of the chairs of the House Intelligence and House Armed Services committees.

“He does draw on us as his national security resource,” he said. 

But the final form of any package is still up in the air. McCaul was critical of a proposal floated by Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) on Friday laying out changes to immigration policy that could be linked to foreign military assistance, saying it was not “well thought out.” 

But he said there are some changes to the Senate-passed foreign aid package that could make it more “palatable” for critics, including former President Trump. 

Trump effectively killed the bipartisan immigration-Ukraine proposal to prevent President Biden from scoring a political win ahead of the November election.

“[Trump has] a lot of control over my party, no question about it. Whatever he does say, it either would encourage, or motivate, or give them cover,” McCaul said when asked if lawmakers are seeking the former president’s approval before coming out for or against the national security supplemental.

“I do think the House is going to want its own imprimatur on this; we’re not going to just rubber-stamp the Senate supplemental,” McCaul said.

He suggested some changes that could bring more supporters on board, such as adding to any supplemental the “REPO Act,” a bill that would use frozen Russian assets in the U.S. to pay for Ukraine’s reconstruction, and looking into whether economic assistance for Ukraine could be delivered as a loan.

Trump and his supporters have criticized U.S. economic assistance to Ukraine, of which about $18 billion has gone to help pay the salaries of health care and education professionals, and pensions.

While a provision in the Senate-passed national security supplemental blocked economic assistance to pay for pensions, McCaul suggested budgetary support for the Ukrainian government could also be listed as a loan, but he spoke out against conditioning military assistance as a loan.

“I think this loan program could be very helpful. And I know there’s been some progress with the former president to talk about this, that I think can be helpful as well. But at the end of day, I believe there’s a majority in the House that will pass this. It just has to come to the floor.”