Republicans are worried the slim margin of victory in Tuesday’s special election may spell doom in 2026.

12/02/2025

Republicans won Tuesday’s special election in Tennessee. But instead of celebrating, many are dreading what it means about the midterms.

Republican Rep.-elect Matt Van Epps’ roughly nine point win marks a massive shift toward Democrats from 2024, when President Donald Trump carried the district by 22 points. That double digit swing — on the heels of crushing losses in off-year elections in November — could be a harbinger of what House Republicans will face in the midterms next year, members and strategists warned, as they seek to hold on to their narrow control of the chamber.

“Tonight is a sign that 2026 is going to be a bitch of an election cycle,” said one House Republican, granted anonymity to speak candidly. “Republicans can survive if we play team and the Trump administration officials play smart. Neither is certain.”

Democrat Aftyn Behn’s overperformance in the Tennessee special election — which attracted millions of dollars in spending and national attention in its final days — continues a trend of concerning electoral results for the GOP. Earlier this year, Democrats saw big overperformances in losses in other special elections in deep-red seats, and last month they swept a slate of critical off-year elections, including gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey.

In the wake of those victories, some Republicans urged the White House to retool its political message to better engage moderate voters and independents who broke for Trump in the presidential election.

“I’m glad we won. But the GOP should not ignore the Virginia, New Jersey and Tennessee elections,” Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), who is retiring from his swingy Omaha-based district, said. “We must reach swing voters. America wants some normalcy.”

House Republican leadership had been preparing for Tuesday night’s results. And while Speaker Mike Johnson leadership’s team was bracing for a tighter-than-comfortable race, the single-digit margin was still a hard pill to swallow after national Republicans pulled out all the stops — including a Trump tele-rally and Johnson visit to the district — to rescue Van Epps in the final days.

“It was too close,” said one House GOP leadership aide, who was also granted anonymity to candidly discuss the race.

Trump himself projected confidence after the win, celebrating Van Epps’ victory. “The Radical Left Democrats threw everything at him, including Millions of Dollars. Another great night for the Republican Party!!!,” he wrote on Truth Social.

But Matthew Bartlett, a GOP strategist and appointee in the first Trump administration, said the single-digit margin for Van Epps continues the momentum Democrats already feel after the New Jersey and Virginia races.

“None of it bodes well for the GOP in the midterms,” Bartlett said. “Being an ostrich with your head in the sand on the key issues that matter most to Americans is not a strategy, or certainty not a winning one.”

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) directly tied Van Epps’ underperformance to Democratic voters motivated by their disapproval of Trump, and he pleaded with Republicans to “set out the alarm” with Republican voters about the consequences of losing control of the House and the Senate.

“It was dangerous. We could have lost this district because the people who showed up, many of them are the ones that are motivated by how much they dislike President Trump,” Cruz said in a Fox News interview Tuesday evening.

“In a year, it’s going to be a turnout election, and the left will show up,” he added. “Hate is a powerful motivator.”

Turnout was extraordinarily high for a special election, pacing the 2022 midterms. Van Epps got roughly 90 percent of the number of raw votes Republican Mark Green — whose retirement triggered the special election — got that year, while Behn got over 115 percent of the 2022 Democrat nominee’s total.

One GOP consultant, granted anonymity to speak candidly, worried the result in Tennessee signals that Republican voters won’t turn out in significant numbers for candidates other than Trump — a problem that has plagued Republicans in the past.

“The Trump coalition is captivated by the force of his personality and willingness to disrupt the established order. There’s not much interest in supporting other ‘politicians’ when Trump isn’t on the ballot,” the consultant said. “The winds are likely to blow against Republicans in federal races in 2026. People are rarely satisfied anymore and they’re looking for someone to punish.”

In a statement celebrating his victory on Tuesday, Van Epps acknowledged Trump’s importance in the race.

“Running from Trump is how you lose. Running with Trump is how you win,” he said.

Ahead of Tuesday’s election, National Republican Congressional Committee chair Rep. Richard Hudson sought to downplay the results of an election that was projected to be uncharacteristically competitive, telling House Republicans in a closed-door meeting that special elections are unique. And after Tuesday’s win, he celebrated Van Epps, saying in a statement “no one is better positioned to take up the mantle and deliver results” for Tennessee.

But coming out of that meeting, one House Republican said that a narrow result could send shockwaves among the House GOP conference.

“If our victory margin is single digits, the conference may come unhinged,” the House Republican said prior to polls closing on Tuesday.

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/12/02/tennessee-election-republican-midterms-fallout-00674124