Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Charles Q. Brown, Jr., attends a Congressional Gold Medal ceremony on March 21, 2024. TOM WILLIAMS / CQ-ROLL CALL, INC VIA GETTY IMAGES

The United States is becoming more comfortable giving Ukraine the long-sought weapons.

PATRICK TUCKER | 

MARCH 28, 2024 09:18 PM ET

Ukraine has been asking the United States for long-range ATACMS missiles since 2021, and the White House has consistently resisted, at least publicly. But the tide may be turning. 

Thursday, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. C.Q. Brown, told reporters “the risk of escalation is not as high as maybe it was at the beginning.”

Russian statements in September 2022 indicated that providing such weapons to Ukraine would cross a “red line,” because their range would allow Ukraine to target Moscow. Gen. Mark Milley, then the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, toldDefense One at the time: “Folks in academia or think tanks or other forms of analysis, they call that ‘declaratory policy,’ when senior officials…issue out statements, predictive statements, of what they would or would not do, if certain actions were to take place.”

Top military officials, speaking on background, have pointed to Russian military doctrinespecifically as it relates so-called existential risk, saying that giving Ukraine such weapons could compel a nuclear response from Russia, or spur it to attack a NATO partner.  

Since the fall, reports have suggested the United States may have changed its calculation, and may be sending small numbers of the long-range missiles in secret—despite the fact that the White House has previously said it doesn’t have enough of them to send. 

But the Biden administration has taken pains to avoid confirming or denying that reporting. As recently as March 20, White House national security advisor Jake Sullivan declared, “I have nothing to announce here publicly today on that issue. When we do have something to share, we will be sure to share it.”

Brown didn’t officially confirm or deny the reporting either, but he did say that Russia’s muted response to a series of recent Ukrainian drone attacks well inside of Russian territory have allowed the Pentagon to adjust its analysis on the risk of sending ATACMS. 

“Those are the things that we…pay attention to. You know, what is the likelihood of escalation based on…different capabilities and different actions,” he said.

Observers and even some Republican lawmakershave been pushing the United States to send the missiles, as they would allow Ukrainians to hold Russian positions in Ukraine in danger, including Crimea, far from the front line, including from well into western Ukraine. That would make it harder for Russia to advance as Ukraine could continue to strike even the most well-fortified Russian positions in the eastern portion of the country from virtually anywhere else in the country. That, in turn, would make it more difficult to reinforce troops even if Russia took more territory. 

Ukraine has recently been losing territory, and some experts say that if Congress does not pass the $60 billion supplemental aid package for Ukraine, Russia may take more this spring. 

Brown again encouraged swift passage of the supplemental, and said Ukraine will face continued artillery shelling for the foreseeable future. But he also said that fears of a massive spring Russian offensive may be overblown. 

“I don’t know if the Russians can generate a major offensive. I mean, if you look at…what’s happened over the course of…the past year, the Russians have actually thrown a lot of capability and personnel and weapon systems and vehicles to gain what they have gained. And the way I would say, it’s almost a meat grinder.”

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Dan Rice in Kyiv recommended the above article with a comment on his LI page :

The new Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Brown hasn’t made any major statements, so this one is very important.
The messages are clearly being sent that the longer range ATACMS MGM-140 with 300 km range is going to be on the battlefield sometime soon. The shorter range ATACMS M-39 with 165 km range already had spectacular results with the October 17, 2023 attack on two Russian airfields in temporarily occupied Crimea.
Even with the longer range ATACMs, the Kerch Bridge will still be out of range. But there are plenty of other high value targets with the 300km range and this will cause Russian to have to change strategy and tactics, as it had to do when the 165km M-39 ATACMs arrived in October 2023. Then Russia had to pull all it’s attack helicopter bases out of range, making them much less effective due to the increased range to get to the front lines.
The longer range ATACMs can’t reach halfway to Moscow either, so those objections are just misinformation and propaganda.
General Brown is also a US Air Force pilot so expect Ukraine will see more and more air power approved, which it has been desperately needing and deserving.