April 5, 2024

Two groups of Ukrainian pilots are finishing up their training on F-16 fighter jets in Denmark and the US. Now, they are sharpening their skills and accumulating flight hours. These aircraft are set to arrive in Ukraine in July, which marks two years since Volodymyr Zelensky initially requested them. But is it too late? A senior Ukrainian military official recently toldPolitico that F-16s may no longer be ‘relevant’ and won’t have an impact on the war effort. ‘Often, we just don’t get the weapons systems at the time we need them – they come when they’re no longer relevant,’ he said. ‘Every weapon has its own right time. F-16s were needed in 2023; they won’t be right for 2024.’

Ukraine’s allies have committed to sending approximately 60 F-16s but, due to varying training schedules, they won’t all arrive simultaneously. Also, Russia is aware that the aircraft are being sent – and has probably already prepared countermeasures against them. Instead, the official said that Ukraine needs more traditional weapons and drones: ‘We need Howitzers and shells, hundreds of thousands of shells and rockets.’

Most importantly, though, Ukraine needs Patriot systems to shield Ukrainian cities and troops on the front line from Russian attacks. Zelensky revealed on Wednesday that Russia launched more than 3,000 guided aerial bombs, 600 drones, and 400 missiles towards his country last month alone. A recent strike on Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, was particularly devastating, destroying almost all of its energy infrastructure and leaving at least 200,000 people without electricity and heating.

According to Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine’s foreign minister, Kyiv’s allies have more than 100 Patriot systems at their disposal, but that they were unwilling to send five to seven more – the minimum number, he said, for the country to significantly bolster its defence. ‘Is it such a big problem? Is it not feasible to provide Ukraine with the minimum request?’ Kuleba asked. It’s understood Ukraine has only about five Patriots: not enough for full protection. Kuleba added that it was not clear to him why allies weren’t forthcoming with the Patriots – especially because they aren’t facing the military threat Ukraine is facing.

Kuleba delivered a scathing address at the Ukraine-Nato council gathering in Brussels yesterday, on the anniversary of the alliance’s formation. ‘I urged them not to seek excuses for why delivering the Patriots is impossible, but to simply take action and deliver them,’ he declared. It appears the allies heeded his call: Germany, leading the coalition for Ukraine’s anti-aircraft defence, committed to spearheading the search for Patriot air defence systems for Kyiv ‘not only among allies but globally’.

Still, the most effective defence against Russian strikes lies in neutralising their missile and bomb carriers. Despite Kyiv’s efforts to persuade Olaf Scholz to send Taurus missiles, which are capable of hitting targets from 310 miles away, to Ukraine, appeals have fallen on deaf ears. The reasons trotted out – concerns about escalation, red lines, and other worn-out justifications – only serve to mask the allies’ lack of resolve. With a looming Russian summer offensive, Ukraine’s pleas to allies for more weapons appear more and more desperate.

……………

Portrait of the week in Ukraine

• Volodymyr Zelensky has signed a law lowering Ukraine’s minimum conscription age from 27 to 25. It is unclear how many more men will be called up. Meanwhile, Russia is preparing to mobilise an additional 300,000 troops before its summer offensive.
• Ukraine hit a Russian drone factory 745 miles from the border with a homemade remote-controlled plane.
• The Belarusian military began drills near its borders with Ukraine, Poland and Lithuania, with President Alexander Lukashenko saying he was preparing for a war.
• Just 45% of Ukrainians believe the war will end with Ukraine restoring its 1991 borders, the poll by the International Republican Institute found.
• Ukraine has begun equipping some of its attack drones with AI to target the Russian energy industry.
• Ukraine’s defence ministry has created an office to hear soldiers’ appeals and complaints and protect the rights of military personnel.
• The US and other western allies have discussed moving the US-led group directing Ukrainian military aid under Nato control to maintain weapons supplies to Kyiv, even if Donald Trump returns to the White House.
• Nato secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg has suggested creating an allied fund worth $100 billion to aid Ukraine over five years.
• Republican officials have said that a vote on the $60bn Ukraine aid bill in Congress is still at least weeks away. Ukrainian-born Republican Congresswoman Victoria Spartz has said she won’t vote for it.
• Emmanuel Macron held confidential calls with Joe Biden and Olaf Scholz in February to convince them that strategic ambiguity in their approach toward Russia is necessary.
• Ukraine and Finland have signed a long-term security agreement on the provision of military and financial assistance. Kyiv has already signed bilateral security deals with eight countries, including the UK.
• Two German companies have been found to be involved in the Russian ‘reconstruction’ of occupied Mariupol in the Donetsk region.

Wider reading on the war

Ukraine is at great risk of its front lines collapsing – Politico

Ukraine eyes Kerch bridge in Crimea for drone attack – Guardian

As Zelensky’s party falters, Ukrainian parliament drifts to standstill – Kyiv Independent

Ukraine’s arms industry is growing, but is it growing fast enough? – New York Times

Ukraine’s election day dawned with no vote in sight and little appetite for one – CNN

In pictures:

Kharkiv, Ukraine: Russia attacked the city’s residential areas with several waves of Shahed drones. Four people were killed; three of them were rescuers who arrived on call to help after the first strikes. Russia’s ‘double-tap’ attacks against Ukraine have killed 91 first responders and injured 348 in more than two years of full-scale war. (Photo: State Emergency Service of Kharkiv)

Quote of the week

‘I think we have assessed throughout the last couple of months that Russia has almost completely reconstituted militarily… [Moscow] suffered initial setbacks during the Ukraine war but has retooled and now poses a threat, not just to Ukraine. Its newfound capabilities pose a longer-term challenge to stability in Europe and threatens Nato allies.’

– US deputy secretary of state Kurt Campbell speaks at a talk hosted by the Center for a New American Security.

The war in numbers:

Ukrainians against holding the next elections during the war:

67%

according to a poll by the Rating group

Cases of suspected treason under state investigation in Ukraine:

1,633

since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion

Ukraine’s parliamentary committee has approved renaming:

51

cities and villages that reference Russian or Soviet names.

A note from the author: Thank you for your interest in this newsletter. I hope it helps you to understand my country – and the war – better from a Ukrainian perspective. If you enjoy the Ukraine in Focus newsletter, please forward it to someone you know: you can sign up here. My writing for The Spectator can be found here. All feedback is welcome: svitlana@spectator.co.uk