12/2/2024 – Translated from Ukrainian via Google and OFP
Germany is an extremely important country in the process of helping Ukraine. Therefore, not only Germans, but also Ukrainians need stability and inner peace. At the same time, today we have a real political crisis in our main European partner – due to which the country is facing early elections to the Bundestag on February 23, 2025.
Many Germans are tired of the war and fear that Germany will be drawn into it. Such fears are fueled by the pro-Russian parties from Alternative for Germany and Sara Wagenknecht’s Union. Olaf Scholz takes this circumstance into account in his own way, betting not on force but on de-escalation in the election campaign.
Due to a certain political instability, there is a threat, in particular, in the issue of the further supply of weapons to Ukraine. Taking this into account, the Ukrainian government insists on making a decision on the further supply of weapons before the early elections in Germany.
About how Germany is going through a rather difficult political life and preparing for extraordinary elections – in the OBOZ.UA article
Scholz avoided Biden’s fate
To date, Berlin has done more for Ukraine than any other EU country, but the policy of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz still raises questions. In Ukraine, he is criticized for his indecision regarding joining NATO and the transfer of long-range TAURUS missiles to Ukraine, which would be extremely helpful in the war with Russia. Scholz’s coalition allies claim that he is following a “middle course” between “hawks” and “doves”, seeking to provide aid to Ukraine without provoking Russia and without upsetting the too pacifist part of German society. However, during such a policy, he managed to alienate almost everyone: both those who believe that he should have done more, and those who wish for peace with the Kremlin.
Depressing ratings – and Olaf Scholz is currently the least popular politician in Germany, with 78% of Germans criticizing him – prompted some members of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) to call on Scholz to follow the example of US President Joe Biden and drop out of the election race. The idea was to replace the chancellor’s candidacy in a snap election with the more popular German defense minister, Boris Pistorius.
An official decision on this matter was expected shortly before the pre-election conference of the party on November 30. But already on November 25, Pistorius refused his candidacy and Olaf Scholz was officially nominated as a candidate for chancellor. A unanimous decision was made by the governing committees of the SPD.
Kremlin for the current chancellor?
The nomination of the currently extremely unpopular chancellor as a candidate for the position does not seem logical only at first glance. Yes, the SPD and Scholz today lose significantly to the favorite of the race – CDD-CSU and their leader Friedrich Merz, but it seems that the party is starting to neutralize the latter.
While the Christian Democrat has long wanted to supply Ukraine with Taurus cruise missiles, the current chancellor still refuses to do so. Of course, the Kremlin would clearly prefer the re-election of the indecisive and dependent Scholz to the election of the belligerent Mertz.
Scholz started his “party” with a “peacemaking call” to the Russian dictator Putin, and continued it the day before when he emphasized how “unwaveringly” he and no one else guaranteed and guarantees that Germany will not make the wrong decisions in this “conflict”.
“In such a war, it is necessary to think carefully about how to act carefully, to act wisely when it comes to war and peace,” Scholz said. Noting that his country does not have the right to do certain things, for example, transfer long-range missiles and allow strikes with already transferred German weapons on targets on the territory of Russia. By the way, according to the survey, 6 out of 9 Germans agree with this.
The Kremlin happily “nodded” to Sholtz’s words. The Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Serhii Lavrov called this a “responsible approach”. Therefore, it will not be surprising if the Kremlin “warms up” German fears of a world war with new threatening gestures, such as another “Oreshnik” blow, before the elections in February. In this case, such a step will be an indirect help for Scholz in the election campaign, who will have the opportunity to play his favorite game “do everything to avoid escalation” more actively.
Scholz’s party wants to come to an understanding with Putin
As you know, SPD leads the coalition currently ruling in Germany. As early as the 1970s, this party pursued a course of rapprochement with Moscow. The peak of understanding on the line between the Kremlin and Germany falls on the chancellor of Germany from the Social Democrats, Gerhard Schröder, today a personal friend of Putin.
After February 24, 2022, the SPD leadership admitted its mistakes regarding Russia, distanced itself from Moscow and supported Ukraine. But now Schröder’s associate Matthias Mirsch has become the new general secretary, who has already expressed his readiness to reconcile with him, saying that “Schröder has achieved a lot as chancellor.”
There are other facts that Stoltz’s SPD party is slowly but steadily drifting in the pro-Russian direction. In the eastern lands, the Social Democrats are discussing a coalition with the pro-Russian BSW. In addition, it is reported that Berlin, and more precisely the SPD, has been slowly establishing a dialogue with Moscow since November 2023, because in the German establishment “there is a growing contingent of supporters of restoring ties with Russia, as the German economy has problems.” They point to the figure of Matthias Platzek, the former head of the Social Democratic Party during Gerhard Schroeder’s chancellorship.
Platzek visited Moscow twice – in November 2023 and in February 2024. The German newspaper Die Zeit reported that in November 2024 he was supposed to go to Baku, where he planned to meet with Viktor Zubkov, the former prime minister and chairman of the board of Gazprom, as well as with other Russian officials. Platzek responded by saying that all the trips he took, including the trip to Moscow, were “private” and not at the request of any institution or individual.
CDU/CSU are the future winners, and Friedrich Merz is the likely chancellor
According to current polls, Germany’s conservatives are leading with 32% of the vote, far more than any other party. This is a positive moment for Ukraine, because the program of the conservatives, for example, states that Ukraine should continue to provide “comprehensive” aid and “support Kyiv’s course to join the EU and NATO.” Also, the faction has already twice submitted a draft resolution to the Bundestag with the demand to start supplying Ukraine with German Taurus cruise missiles. Therefore, it can be expected that in case of victory in the elections, the new government will still start supplying such missiles to Ukraine.
Friedrich Mertz, who has a clear reputation as an ardent supporter of Ukraine in the war against the Russian Federation, has been nominated for the position of chancellor from the CDU/CSU. He was one of the first German politicians to visit Ukraine after the start of the full-scale Russian invasion. At the beginning of May 2022, having arrived by train in Kyiv, Merts met with the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyi, and also examined the consequences of the Russian occupation of the Kyiv region. Subsequently, the oppositionist recommended that Scholz also come to Kyiv, which the current chancellor soon did.
In the future, Mertz constantly criticized the current government of Germany for Berlin’s too sluggish and insufficient support for Ukraine. For example, according to Mertz, Germany cannot “stand aside” in the matter of supplying Western combat aircraft to Ukraine. Mertz has repeatedly called on Scholz to provide the Ukrainians with long-range Taurus missiles, as well as to strengthen support for the Defense Forces of Ukraine with other important types of weapons.
Ukraine will receive long-range Taurus missiles if the Christian Democratic Union wins the early elections in Germany and its leader Friedrich Mertz becomes chancellor, believes Andrii Melnyk, the former ambassador of Ukraine to Germany and now the ambassador of Ukraine to Brazil.
The problem of “Putin’s friends”
The Russia-friendly parties Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the left-wing Sara Wagenknecht Union achieved significant gains in the last regional elections. The main common denominator of the German far-right and far-left seems to be their covert or open support for the policies of Russia and its dictator Vladimir Putin and their opposition to further aid to Ukraine. Both pro-Russian parties hope to increase their influence in the rest of the country by doing well in the upcoming Bundestag elections, playing on German public fears of a world war with a nuclear slant.
But Germany is gradually recovering from the onslaught of the pro-Russian far-right. Not so long ago, a petition signed by 112 deputies to ban “Alternative for Germany” was submitted to the Bundestag. The authors of the initiative hope for a decision on this issue before the next parliamentary elections. Whether it will be possible to do it is difficult to say.
Quarrel over rockets
They want to put the question of the supply of Taurus missiles to Ukraine to a vote in the Bundestag. The Free Democratic Party (FDP) intends to do this even before the early parliamentary elections in Germany, said the head of the liberal faction in the German parliament, Christian Durr. In his opinion, this proposal may well pass considering the position of other opposition parties – the conservative CDU/CSU bloc and the Greens.
However, the CDU/CSU is likely to refuse to vote on the issue despite the bloc backing the start of supplies, accusing parliamentary colleagues of trying to score extra points ahead of snap elections.
Johann Wadeful, deputy head of the CDU/CSU parliamentary faction, said in an interview with BILD: “During this convocation, the FSDP had the opportunity to support our proposals several times. Why they were against then, and now suddenly in favor, can only be explained by the election campaign. Since Chancellor Scholz remains against, the CDU/CSU bloc will not participate in the vote at this stage.”
A change of power in Germany will benefit Ukraine
For the voters of any country, the main issue is their well-being, that is, the economic situation in the country. Unfortunately, Russian aggression against Ukraine had negative consequences for the economic situation in many European countries, Germany is no exception, which caused certain problems in the government. In general, the situation in this country is quite stable, although a change of power is probably inevitable. We are talking about the CDU-CSU and their leader Friedrich Merz, who has a good chance of becoming the new chancellor. If this happens, it is quite positive news for Ukraine, because Merts has repeatedly proven that he is a supporter of Ukraine and a supporter of increasing aid – People’s Deputy of Ukraine, Chairman of the Parliamentary Committee on Foreign Policy and Interparliamentary Cooperation Oleksandr noted in an exclusive comment for OBOZ.UA Mesh.
As for Scholz, according to Oleksandr Merezhko, Ukrainians should be grateful to him, because Germany, in particular, thanks to his efforts as chancellor, became the main European aid donor. At the same time, Germany, which is a very powerful military state, could give more.
“However, the latest actions on the part of Scholz were not very positive. I mean the call and the conversations with Putin. This, in my opinion, is a mistake, because it gave Putin an opportunity to say that he is not completely isolated from on the part of civilized Western democratic politicians. Unfortunately, there are two wings in Scholz’s party, the Transatlantic, which understands the danger posed not only to Ukraine, but also to of the European security architecture for Germany as well. But there is also a pro-Russian wing that seeks to come to an understanding with Putin in any development,” says Oleksandr Merezhko.
According to Oleksandr Merezhko, there is a certain economic basis for this, because the German economy at one time was very dependent on Russian energy carriers. And such politicians, in particular in SPD, count on the return of the era of cheap Russian energy carriers.
“One way or another, we have to count on greater support from the CDU-CSU, which has every chance of winning in the extraordinary elections to the Bundestag. It is the party most favorable to us of all in Germany. There are also “greens” who also strongly support Ukraine , but they currently have big electoral losses,” said Oleksandr Merezhko.
“Many Germans are tired of the war and fear that Germany will be drawn into it. Such fears are fueled by the pro-Russian parties from Alternative for Germany and Sara Wagenknecht’s Union. Olaf Scholz takes this circumstance into account in his own way, betting not on force but on de-escalation in the election campaign.”
Germany, like the US and many other Western countries, have been extremely negligent during this war by not educating their populations of the dire consequences a Ukrainian defeat brings with it. They’ve also allowed too much mafia influence to infect social media like the Black Death plague.
However, Olaf is out. Take my word for it. His days as chancellor are over soon. The name of Germany’s next chancellor is Friedrich Merz. Although Scholz had done a lot to help Ukraine, I’m sure that Merz will be better. At least, Merz understands that the only viable way to counter mafia land is with bullets and not with balloons.
We can only hope that a) Merz wins and b) he sticks to his guns. Pun intended.
It seems quite likely that Merz has a better understanding of what’s at stake than Scholz.
I would think that if Germany’s pro Ukrainian faction gets into office quickly could tamper down Trump’s course for Ukraine. Kinda like telling Trump “go away, you’re not needed here.”
That could be the case, but perhaps together with France and Britain.