Berlin had a chance to show true leadership over Ukraine. It’s blown it, and Putin will be delighted
1 March 2024 • 6:00am
‘We will not go it alone. Germany will not act differently from other countries,” chancellor Olaf Scholz promised in April 2022. It’s become a mantra, deployed whenever Berlin is asked to do more to support Ukraine against Russia’s brutal invasion. Unfortunately, it no longer appears to be true. Germany looks increasingly isolated, with its domestic divisions, careless communication and tensions with its closest allies a far cry from the robust leadership we were promised.
Scholz’s latest breach of trust came on Monday. Keen to bat away internal opposition, he discussed British and French aid to Ukraine in terms that implied they were active participants in the war. Explaining his own reluctance to send long-range Taurus cruise missiles while Britain and France have sent comparable Storm Shadow and Scalp systems respectively, he said: “What is being done in the way of target control and accompanying target control on the part of the British and the French can’t be done in Germany.”
The fact that Britain aids Ukraine with intelligence on targets isn’t new, but Scholz’s open discussion of the matter did nothing for the veiled ambiguity in which such interventions are deliberately shrouded – “a gift to Russian propagandists”, as one intelligence expert put it. A senior Tory MP was stronger still, describing the chancellor’s comments as “a flagrant abuse of intelligence deliberately designed to distract from Germany’s reluctance to arm Ukraine with its own long-range missile system”.
Germany is increasingly out of step with another of its allies, too: France. In a jarring contradiction to Germany’s guiding principle in Ukraine – avoiding direct conflict with Russia – French president Emmanuel Macron told reporters after a summit of European leaders in Paris that there was “no consensus today to send ground troops officially but … nothing is ruled out”.
Scholz had said the precise opposite shortly before. While several other Nato countries, including the UK and the US, also rejected Macron’s remarks, the disunity between Berlin and Paris, usually so keen to stress how crucial their partnership is for peace in Europe, will have been noted in Moscow.
A large part of the problem for Germany’s allies are the severe splits within the country’s ruling coalition. These have again come to the fore in an emerging debate over whether the country should acquire nuclear weapons or there should be a common European deterrent, sparked over concerns about the reliability of Europe’s partnership with the United States should Donald Trump return to the White House.
The debate was largely started by a member of Scholz’s own Social Democratic Party (SPD), whose lead candidate for the European elections in the summer, Katarina Barley, wants the option on the table. Her colleague Ralf Stegner, however, has called the idea “extremely dangerous and irresponsible”.
Such internal rifts within the chancellor’s own party mean that allies rightly worry they can’t rely on a clear stance from Germany while war is raging in Europe. And it’s just the tip of an iceberg of domestic division as anti-establishment parties tear chunks out of the ruling coalition. The three parties in Scholz’s coalition would now only gain around a third of the vote combined. Meanwhile, the hard-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) and a new party under the direction of Left-winger Sahra Wagenknecht both advocate negotiations with Russia. The survival of his fragile coalition is a priority for Scholz over security policy.
This lack of German leadership is a tragedy for Ukraine and for the West. When Scholz promised that Russia’s illegal invasion would be a Zeitenwende, a turning point for Germany, there was an opportunity for the country to step out of its post-war shadow and assume more responsibility for Western security. This could have had an immensely stabilising effect, underpinned by the country’s economic might and geostrategic position.
As it stands, Germany may be the second biggest contributor of military aid to Ukraine after the US, but it can no longer credibly claim to offering any form of leadership. That Germany is struggling to set its own house in order, leaving it neither the will nor the authority to lead on European security, is clear for all to see, including Vladimir Putin.
Selected comments from DT readers:
Florian Danzinger
Schroeder is on PooTin’s payroll. Merkel never stopped to be a STASI agent. I wouldn’t be surprised if Scholz was working for Russia as well.
David Newman
France has given 300m euros while Germany is over 8bn in military aid. Maybe Macron ought to say less and do more.
Scott Glenister
The establishment in the US and UK have thrown Ukraine under the bus. They don’t care about Ukrainians or Ukraine, otherwise they would have backed them to the hilt. No, they wanted to weaken Russia (failed), sever Europe from Russia (succeeded) and make billions by selling weapons using tax payers’ money (a great triumph).
Chano Khosla
East Germans in the merged Germany are in control in my view. Very well planned for a reverse takeover. I can foresee what’s going to happen.
Tub Thumper
Germany is next stop for Putin after Poland. So when the Russiam army rolls up to the Polish border in Summer 2025 we can expect a sharpened awareness of the threat.
“Meanwhile, the hard-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) and a new party under the direction of Left-winger Sahra Wagenknecht both advocate negotiations with Russia. The survival of his fragile coalition is a priority for Scholz over security policy.”
The author Ms Hoyer, was born in East Germany and has taken UK citizenship. She writes for the Speccie, the WP and Die Welt.
Another key ally; Poland, seems to be faltering :
Roman Sheremeta:
“Something is seriously broken in Poland. Hundreds of trucks from Poland are constantly traveling to Belarus and back, while Ukrainian trucks are blocked.
A Ukrainian journalist, Mykhailo Tkach, whom I know personally, was recently detained by Polish police for investigating the trade activities between Poland and Belarus.
According to his investigation, hundreds of trucks from Poland are daily traveling to Belarus and back. They carry russian products. Products from russia go to Poland through Belarus, being reloaded in Belarus into trucks with Polish license plates.
Last year, Poland imported $450 million worth of goods from Belarus, $2.6 billion from Russia. Despite the russian war against Ukraine, the Poles are only strengthening cooperation with these countries.
At the same time, only in February, Ukraine lost $210 million due to the blockade of Ukrainian products on the Polish borders by the so called “Polish farmers.” For the past few weeks, these thugs destroyed hundreds of tons of Ukrainian grain and wouldn’t even allow civilian cars to pass by at the boarder. I personally had to switch to train in order to get to Ukraine.
Of course, most Poles, instead of apologizing and acknowledging that something is seriously broken in Poland, will complain and tell me that I am an ungrateful Ukrainian, that I am trolling Poland, that it is just a minority, that it is all russian agents, that Poland is a democratic country and everyone is free to do what they want.
No, something is seriously broken in Poland.
I will end by making two points. First, over the past two years, I have wrote dozens of grateful posts acknowledging and thanking all Poles who stood with Ukraine in its darkest hour. Ukriane will forever be grateful to Poland for that!
Also, my grandma was Polish, so Polish blood is also in my veins. But I am not going to hide behind my Polish roots to justify this despicable behavior. The current behavior that I see in Poland is nothing short of disappointment.
Something is seriously broken in Poland.”
I have no words. What a treacherous spineless lying piece of shit Scholz is.
^bert
I guess Scholz has noticed by now that he has screwed up, big time:
“Western Allies Slam Scholz for Foot-in-Mouth Comment About UK, French Troops in Ukraine”
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/28871
😖
“most Poles, instead of apologizing and acknowledging that something is seriously broken in Poland, will complain”
Well, I do think there’s something to the stereotype of the crafty Polish salesman, who won’t let ethical considerations stop him from making a profitable deal with the enemy – or from disrupting the trade of a friendly competitor. I’m not saying all Poles are that way, but quite a lot. Btw, I have distant cousins there, who managed to get along well under both the communist and the capitalist economy. So, there’s a bit of, uh, flexibility there, indeed. Poland’s national interest obviously ain’t the same one as Ukraine’s. 🤔
Just in at the KyivPost:
“Russian Media Says Audio Tape Shows Germany Planning Attack on Crimean Bridge”
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/28889
If actually true (which is doubtful, may be AI-generated), this is probably just hypothetical talk. Totally normal for army officers to discuss how they would accomplish a mission. That’s just a sandbox game, no real threat.
It’s not Germany, it’s Scholz. Most of German politicians are supporting Taurus to be sent to Ukraine.
Thanks for this correction, Mr. Ofp! Much appreciated. 👋🙂👍
That’s my nick, Mr. Gray, only facts, please. 😉