Phillips’s Newsletter

Whatever intrigues me–these days the Russo-Ukraine War with regular departures

By Phillips P. OBrien

Also: MAGA and Putin; Russian advances in the Donbas in perspective. 

PHILLIPS P. OBRIEN

OCT 27, 2024

Hello All,

Well what we are witnessing in Georgia is both depressingly predictable and yet horrifying at the same time. A nation that wanted to be democratic, whose people saw their future in the West, in Europe, is having their freedom corrupted in front of their (and our) eyes. Its shows how fragile democratic systems can be in the face of unopposed brutality.

Two other stories this week. The connections between Putin and MAGA have come even more into focus, and its clear (once again) what will happen if Trump wins. 

Also, the Russians continue with the tiny advances—though clearly many people think they are seizing much more of Ukraine than they actually are. Its important, because understanding what is going on in relative terms can help people understand how Ukraine can be armed to win the war.

Georgian freedom is teetering, the same cant happen for Ukraine.

The Death of Georgian Democracy and its Meaning for Ukraine

What we are seeing in Georgia might best be called the dictator’s playbook—one we have seen used repeatedly in the last few years in countries like Belarus and Venezuela. A state calls an election which it says is free, even allows in some foreign observers—but it goes ahead and in front of the world steals the vote. It uses intimidation, ballot-box stuffing, ballot irregularities, etc, and in the end it simply declares itself the victor. Sure, the people might protest, get together in their hundreds of thousands, but the dictators have prepared for this. They have their security forces, even the army, prepared and by their side. To crush the dissent where its dangerous, and let it die of neglect where its not a direct threat. 

The end result is that they keep power and are freed even more from any restraint. 

Maybe I’m wrong about Georgia—but sadly I doubt it. Georgia Dream has the enthusiastic support of Russia and China, has been preparing for this moment for years, and it has access to the guns and prisons. The EU and USA will, I’m sure, express concern, maybe even extreme concern, but in the end they will do nothing.

And in the end another European democracy will be extinguished. Democracy is not just treading water in Europe and around the world, its in retreat. Its been crushed in Belarus and probably Georgia, its been completely perverted in Hungary, its tottering in Slovakia, and lord knows what will happen in any other state where anti-Liberal populists will gain power. 

There is only one exception to this trend—Ukraine. Ukraine has become a more vibrant democracy, a more engaged civil society, and maybe the only sign of hope Europe has had for its future in the last few years. It has a people willing to fight and die for their freedom, and has shown the ability to bear an enormous amount of pain and suffering to be both European and free. 

Ukraine represents a chance for renewal for Europe, a reassertion of the values of openness and democracy with which it was rebuilt after 1945. If Ukraine wins, the whole tide of the anti-democratic movement can be halted and reversed.

However, if Ukraine is sacrificed, even just part of Ukraine, and the rest of the country is left without full membership into the EU and NATO, the future of Europe is bleak. The parts handed to Russia will be subsumed in an anti-democratic empire, and the remaining part if Ukraine will feel abandoned (as it has every right to feel).

MAGA really believes in the Equivalence of Russia and Ukraine—And Putin Knows That

Before a single vote had been counted in Georgia (illegally or otherwise), Viktor Orban popped up to congratulate Georgian Dream on their victory. Enemies of democracy don’t need to worry about the niceties of respecting elections it seems.

For those who dont know, Orban is Donald Trump’s favorite leader in Europe (outside of Putin). In the last few weeks Trump has praised Orban lavishly, using words such as “fantastic” a “friend” a “great man” and a “great leader”. In a campaign event in Florida, Trump practically swooned when discussing Orban.

“There’s nobody that’s better, smarter or a better leader than Viktor Orbán. He’s fantastic,” the former president told a crowd gathered for a concert at the Florida resort, as shown in a series of videos posted to Orbán’s Instagram account.

Trump added that the European autocrat is “a noncontroversial figure because he said, ‘This is the way it’s going to be,’ and that’s the end of it, right? He’s the boss and … he’s a great leader, fantastic leader. In Europe and around the world, they respect him.”

Its another sign that MAGA is not even bothering to hide its disdain for free systems and the rule of law these days. I don’t know if you saw JD Vance’s discussion of Russia and Ukraine two days ago. If you didn’t, it provides an even more chilling future about what a Trump administration might mean for freedom in Europe than the Georgian election. For there is no pretence or even genuflection towards democracy in Vance’s words. Ukraine is no better than Russia, Putin is a normal leader, and the US needs to act accordingly. Or as Vance put it in a televised event—it is wrong for some Americans to “beat their chests” and look at the Russo-Ukraine war as if one side is good and one side is bad.

His solution, as always, is to end the war now and give Putin what he wants. Its been a constant theme for months now—I wrote a detailed piece in July laying out all his different statements to that effect up until that time. You can read it here if you want all the gory details:

JD Vance and Ukraine: We can say now what Trump wants–and its not good.

PHILLIPS P. OBRIEN

·

JUL 15 Read full story

Of course this week it was not just Vance reiterating his position. It emerged that Elon Musk, who has been the single most prominent public backer of Trump, and helped with the selection of Vance as VP while plowing millions and millions into the Trump campaign—has been having secret conversations with Putin now for years.

This is really extraordinary. Musk is one of the most important defense contractors in the USA, whose company benefits from lavish Pentagon contracts and through which he has access to many US secrets, and he has been talking with the head of a state that is one of the greatest security challenges to the US if the Pentagon’s own statements are to be believed. Indeed, its worth going and reading how Russia (and its relationship with North Korea and Iran) is discussed in the recently released US National Defense Strategy.

The US is supposed to be working with NATO to help thwart Russia in its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, and at the same time remaining vigilant against North Korea and Iran.

And what do we see from MAGA, them reaching out to Putin, working with Putin in a way, while Russia is openly deepening its relationship with North Korea and Iran—to the point that North Korean troops are poised to join the fighting against Ukraine.

And Putin knows this. At the BRICS summit this week, Putin said openly he supported Trump’s “peace” plan for Ukraine. I think we can say clearly that if Trump wins in 9 days, the prospect for the US abandoning Ukraine is close to 100%. 

The Russian Offensives in 2024 in Perspective

I asked in a poll of all subscribers this week how much of Ukraine they thought Russia had seized in 2024. I was intrigued to see what you all believed, and in some ways I was pleased.

Military Metrics and the Russian 2024 Offensive

PHILLIPS P. OBRIEN

·

OCT 22Read full story

Here are the results 

(ps—when I was doing my first cut and past of this, I ended up voting for the more than 10% result—though happily with almost 3000 voters, my vote didnt make a difference)

31% percent were right that when you add the area Russia has taken (minus the area of land Russia has lost in Russia) it would be less than half of one percent. Of course, as regular readers of this substack, hopefully you had read the stories about the war and great Russian successes with a skeptical eye. 

On the other hand more than a third (a total of 34%) had a greatly inflated view of what Russia has achieved—in some cases a hugely inflated idea. That is concerning, because it feeds into the narrative of Russian success that people like Vance, Musk, Orban, etc, are and will continue to use to try and force a peace deal on Putin’s terms.

To give you the national picture, here was the front line as part of all of Ukraine (and the bordering areas of Russia) on January 1, 2024.

And here is the front line today.

And because the amount of land that has changed hand is actually so small, here is the map today with a circle around the area Ukraine still holds in Russia itself (the blue smudge at the top) and another circle around where Russia has had its greatest advances in 2024 (at the bottom). Its worth noting that the bottom circle contains almost every town Russia has taken this year, from Avdiivka, Ocheretyne, Vuhledar, Niu York.

Yes Russia has made advances, at extremely high cost, but within a context of a country the size of Ukraine, the area is tiny. Moreover, Ukraine still holds a sizable chunk of Russia. In fact to compare the areas, you can see how small the differences are. Here is a map showing the distance of the Russian advance from Avdiivka (seized in February) to the closest point of the Russian line in Avdiivka. Its 37.27 kilometres (or 23 miles)

The area that Ukraine still holds in Russia’s Kursk Oblast (even after Russia has started massing troops there to try and retake it) has a similar length (if not depth) and 35.92 kilometres,

And remember that Russia has made its advances with some enormous advantages, from the US cutting off aid to Ukraine for the first 4 months of the year, from the US refusing to allow Ukraine to make ranged attacks into Russa, from Russia receiving 5 million+ shells from North Korea (more than all of Ukraine’s partners have given it during the war), to Russia getting its hands on thousands of Shaheds through Iranian assistance, and Russia being allowed to bombard any part of Ukraine with impunity whenever it wants. 

So yes, Russia has made advances, but considering the major strategic advantages its had, and the small areas, it would be very hard to say that the area seized represents some great success. Actually, and depressingly, what it shows that the Russian military remains more than beatable if Ukraine’s partners wanted to help Ukraine beat it. The only hope for such a policy remains with Kamala Harris. 

Have a good rest of the weekend everyone.

© 2024 Phillips P. OBrien
548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104