11.01.2023
Translated from Ukrainian via Google
The fierce battles for Soledar are due to the fact that the Russian occupying army failed to take Bakhmut “on the forehead” – now the enemy is trying to create an “operational coverage” of the Ukrainian Defense Forces , surround them, take them into the boiler and force them to leave the region, giving Bakhmut, like this was with the occupied Lisichansk. But the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine already has a plan to transfer additional reserves to this sector of the front. The Ukrainian army will hold Soledar, which means that the encirclement attempt in the Bakhmut area will fail.
At the same time, the most active period of the war is expected with the onset of spring. Its outcome will depend on how prepared both sides are for it – the occupier and the Ukrainian army. This opinion was expressed in an exclusive interview with OBOZREVATEL by the former Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Lieutenant General Igor Romanenko .
– Adviser to the Office of the President Mikhail Podolyak suggested that, subject to the liberation of Donbass and the Zaporozhye region, the occupier could decide to withdraw from Crimea. Is such a scenario really possible?
– It really can be. But the military doctrine of the Russian Federation says that in this case, the Russians can raise the issue of using weapons of mass destruction. This is a clear loss in the war, and in order to prevent this, the Kremlin may decide to take such a step. There are also such assessments.
But if the Ukrainian army now had the necessary capabilities to operate in the north of the Lugansk region, in the Zaporozhye direction, in the direction of Melitopol, the enemy would have very serious problems with the defense. But this requires great strength.
Of course, it is very important and essential that Western partners provide Ukraine with armored combat vehicles, but their number is 6-7 times less than what General Zaluzhny had requested for the liberation of the captured Ukrainian territories since the beginning of the invasion on February 24. And this is only for combat vehicles. There are no tanks at all. There are howitzers, but 50, and he requested 300. That is, six times less.
– It turns out that, no matter how events unfold, the Ukrainian army will still liberate the occupied territories. And sooner or later, in any case, the question will arise that Russia is finally losing this war, which means that the issue of the use of nuclear weapons will become relevant again?
– There is such a scenario. Therefore, the leadership of Western countries is trying to prevent a clear and quick victory for Ukraine in this war, regulating the process through the supply of weapons . And this is what we are seeing.
It is important that the provision of armored combat vehicles to us has already been agreed. They provide offensive action. But they will be transferred after 8 weeks of training, that is, in two months.
Therefore, with the onset of spring, further active actions are possible. And here the main question is which of the parties will prepare faster in these conditions.
– Journalist Yuri Butusov, who is now at the forefront, said that since December 27 to this day, Russian troops have been persistently storming Soledar. Why is this place so important to them?
– In any case, the main goal of the Russian army is Bakhmut. But it is impossible to capture him in the forehead, and they understood this. The Russian army suffers heavy losses. Therefore, Prigozhin transferred forces from under Bakhmut and other, in their opinion, the least relevant sectors of the front to the Soledar region.
This is about the same story as with the capture of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. Severodonetsk was taken for a long time, with heavy losses, but still captured. But, having such experience, they decided not to take Lisichansk head-on, because there were certain problems. In particular, because the city is located on a hill. The invaders used the tactics of operational coverage. Our forces, in order not to be surrounded, were forced to withdraw.
Therefore, the same model is used with Bakhmut. Since it is impossible to take the city head-on, an attempt is made to quickly cover it from the north and south.
Why is Bahmut so important? From a military point of view, it is of great importance, since there is an important road junction here. If you capture Bakhmut, this will give the prospect of going to Chasov Yar, Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.
Western analysts also name other, non-military reasons. Including the fact that in Soledar there are deposits of salt and gypsum on a world-class scale. And Bakhmut is mines, coal. That is, in addition to the military and military-political, there is also an economic background.
– What is your forecast? How will events develop on this hottest sector of the front?
– Taking into account the fact that the commander of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Syrsky, arrived there, he decides on the transfer of reserves, weapons, equipment and personnel to this direction. Therefore, there is a prospect that we will be able to resist both in the direction of Soledar and Bakhmut. If we keep Soledar, the enemy will not be able to realize another option for capturing the same Bakhmut by surrounding him.
– The New York Times stated that allegedly in Ukraine they are developing “tank killers” – fragmentation grenades will be installed on Chinese-made drones. Do you know about it? What new developments can the Ukrainian military-industrial complex present in the near future?
– Frag grenades against a tank? It’s kind of unrealistic. I don’t understand this kind of weapons.
But I know that in November last year, Ukroboronprom, together with the Ministry of Defense, announced that five types of unmanned aerial vehicles had been adopted by the army. On the one hand, this speaks volumes.
On the other hand, when it was investigated how strikes were carried out on military airfields in the rear of Russia with long-range aircraft, in Engels, it was said that Ukroboronprom was testing drones that could operate at a distance of 1,000 kilometers or more. This is also important, essential. This is a serious weapon.
– The last question is about the morale of the occupying army. The General Staff reported that in the Zaporozhye direction, in order to stop the panic among the occupying soldiers, the National Guard actually executed six military men who called for surrendering to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In your estimation, how important is the panic in the enemy’s camp? Can it lead to a situation where the soldiers refuse to follow the orders of the commanders and will flee from the battlefield?
– The main criterion here is the number of soldiers who succumbed to panic. If these are isolated cases, this is one option. But these are not isolated cases. In order to stop the facts of non-fulfillment of orders, abandonment of positions, desertion in the Russian army, they resorted to barrage detachments, including the so-called National Guard and the Kadyrovites.
They carried out public executions of servicemen who tried to behave in this way.
Earlier, I said that the losses of the Russian army will be of great importance when this figure exceeds 100,000. Moreover, they must be multiplied by three – not only killed, but also wounded. Such a quantity will lead to the realization of the philosophical law of the transition of quantity into quality.
On the one hand, the moral and psychological state of the troops will be undermined. On the other hand, the war will enter Russian families. It’s one thing when Russians discuss the war in Ukraine, sitting on the couch in front of the TV, and quite another thing when one of their relatives is wounded or killed in this war.
This, of course, affects the personnel of the Russian military structures – and there are not only the armed forces of the Russian Federation, but also Wagnerites, and criminals, and foreign mercenaries, “wild geese.” One way or another, such huge losses affect them and the deep people, helping them to see clearly.
It is a disgrace that the defenders have had to tolerate mass attacks from huge numbers of cockroaches in this area for months. The allies should have long ago provided the weaponry and armoury to punch through the vermin strongholds.
Now they must wait for months for heavy metal to arrive and training to complete. Fucking infuriating.
I honestly don’t think the weapons that will be sent are meant to use in these sectors.
In Bakhmut it is mainly small arms fire and mortars, not really something Ukraine lacks or cannot be done with Soviet era equipment.
In this urban house to house fights you don’t really need armoured vehicles, it is basically all infantry digged in.
I think the new arms deliveries are in preparation for a counteroffensive in the countries South to Melitopol.
I also think this will reduce the intensity around Bakhmut, as they will be forced to move forces and equipment towards this region.
I don’t think Ukraine is even going to attempt any breakthrough in the Bakhmut area, as they are too careful with their people. Ukraine usually only attacks weak spots after softening up the area before with long range missile strikes.
It never should have got to street fighting.
The putinazis have one modus operandi (apart from rape, torture, theft and genocide). That is to use superior numbers of manpower, tanks and artillery. Then keep on pounding until ground troops can mop up.
For six months, the defenders said they could only return 1/20th of what the orcs were chucking at them. They had to use mainly old Soviet artillery and had limited ammo.
That is why they are in the situation they are now. If they had 200 HIMARS instead of 40, modern tanks and western jets, we wouldn’t be having this conversation.
It is a catastrophic failure by the allies of deploying the “trickle down” approach to weaponry allocation.
That’s what happens when the people in the West vote spinless monkeys into high offices. I’m afraid that only few have learned anything from this terrible war.
I agree. Trying to break through Bakhmut would not be wise. The AFU general staff hasn’t been stupid so far, and I doubt they will start being so now. They’re only bleeding the cockroaches dry there while looking for a soft spot. They’ve probably already found one or more and are preparing to strike.
Indeed, it’s infuriating! It gives me a feeling of very deep anger.