15 August 2026
The authorities claim the fuel situation is normalizing, but lines at gas stations are growing again . Many stations, even in the Moscow region, are out of gasoline, and regions are reinstating restrictions on sales. An analysis by the Institute of Energy and Finance (IEF) confirms that the fuel problem is worsening.
The IEF assesses the situation based on data on fuel card transactions from major retail banks, primarily Sberbank, whose catalog includes 29,800 gas stations. “The bank records the card payment. If the refill is successful, the status is ‘fuel available,'” explains the IEF. If the station is clearly out of fuel or closed, it’s labeled “no fuel,” and if no valid payment has been made, it’s labeled “no data.” Sberbank almost never marks gas stations as “no fuel.” Its main indicator is the percentage of stations with a signal that doesn’t clearly indicate “fuel available,” notes the IEF. On August 14, it was 37.3%. A month earlier, at the peak of the crisis (when the IEF calculations begin), it was around 33%.
The situation is worst in Yakutia and North Ossetia, where half of the gas stations there can’t be said to have fuel. Among the most problematic regions, according to Sberbank, are the other republics of the North Caucasus, Kalmykia and Mordovia, and the Astrakhan and Kurgan regions: in all of them, the share exceeds 43%. AI-95 is noticeably more scarce than AI-92 everywhere, according to the IEF.
In the Caucasus, the high proportion of “problem” stations often reflects a weak meter reading, not necessarily a widespread physical fuel shortage, notes the IEF, acknowledging the method’s limitations. However, the change in this “repeatable, day-to-day comparable indicator” reflects the overall situation, he believes: “It’s the dynamics here that are more valuable than one-off reports: the same tool, every day, across the country and all regions.”
Leading NEST Center expert Sergei Aleksashenko calls the IEF “an interesting tool for analyzing the gasoline situation,” which “does not claim that its results are the ultimate truth,” while at the same time allowing “a bird’s-eye view of the situation and does not use arguments like ‘I was driving today and couldn’t fill up.'”
Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak ordered additional measures to ensure fuel supplies to “vulnerable” regions. On August 14, the government reviewed the situation in the Orenburg, Lipetsk, Tver, and Oryol regions, Tuva, Krasnodar Krai, Khakassia, and the Trans-Baikal, Primorsky, and Krasnoyarsk regions.
Officials constantly claim that gasoline supplies will soon improve. To address the crisis, they banned the export of gasoline and diesel fuel, extended tax breaks to imported gasoline, and permitted the use of Euro-2 fuel, which is already destroying modern cars. “The situation will gradually improve,” Vladimir Putin assured in mid-July. “The balance is now better, and the situation at gas stations is significantly better,” Novak said in late July, and the Central Bank’s latest forecast assumes “a gradual stabilization of the fuel market.”
Data from other banks analyzed by the IEF shows that “stabilization” turned out to be “stagnation at a high level.” Fuel shortages have become the “new normal” for many, Aleksashenko concludes.
There is just so much fuel that mafia land can confiscate from its eastern regions, and india can’t send enough to make up for the country’s supply shortage caused by demolished refineries. It must get worse for them before it can get better again. It doesn’t only hurt the common sheep, but the economy, too.