09/1/2026
Back in the spring of this year, I had some doubts about the capabilities of the Ukrainian Defense Forces to quickly finish off Russia’s huge oil refining industry, which has 40 large refineries.
However, based on the results of the summer combat work, I was pleasantly surprised. The latest data shows that the SOU completely disabled all the large refineries of Lukoil and some other companies. The basic Russian industry was on the verge of a real disaster.
The myth of inexhaustibility has been destroyed
Until 2026, Russia had a significant margin of safety due to excess capacity. However, in the summer of 2026, the situation changed qualitatively. Repeated and serial defeats of plants turned into a systemic limitation for the entire industry.
Falling numbers
In pre-war times, the Russian Federation refined about 5.5–5.7 million barrels of oil per day. As of the end of August 2026, this figure had fallen to about 3.8–4 million barrels. In fact, only about three-fifths of the nominal primary refining capacity is currently operating.
Gasoline is already in open shortage
The gasoline market was the first to feel the impact. In early July, gasoline production fell to a level that covered only about 65% of average seasonal consumption.
As a result: Russia imposed an export ban and is forced to buy gasoline abroad, losing foreign currency.
Diesel is the last line of defense, barely holding back the fall into the abyss.
Diesel has always been the main export buffer of the Russian Federation, but it is also rapidly declining. In July, sea exports of diesel and gas oil collapsed by about 60%. The market is in a state of fragile equilibrium. Autumn is ahead – the season of harvesting, increased military consumption and the transition to “winter” grades of fuel, which are in critical shortage due to damage to secondary installations.
Imports will not save
Russia is trying to make up for the losses. Belarus supplies record volumes, purchases are being made from Asia, but imports can only fill some local gaps. They cannot fully replace the losses of a large national oil refinery due to high costs and logistical difficulties.
What does this mean for the Russian economy?
More expensive fuel is fueling inflation in all areas: from the cost of food (through farmers) to freight transportation, the extractive industry, and construction. The authorities are forced to put out this fire with budget money, while simultaneously losing revenue from oil product exports.
What is the strategic goal for Ukraine?
The current pressure creates a scenario of “managed depletion” for Russia. But if effective processing falls to 2-2.5 million barrels per day, Russia will face extreme cascading disruption. This would mean large-scale rationing, a sharp reduction in civilian consumption, logistical disruptions, and a deep recession with unpredictable socio-economic and political consequences.
“But if effective processing falls to 2-2.5 million barrels per day, Russia will face extreme cascading disruption. This would mean large-scale rationing, a sharp reduction in civilian consumption, logistical disruptions, and a deep recession with unpredictable socio-economic and political consequences.”
This goal must be reached, and it’s Ukraine’s only chance for victory and even survival. Destroying the fascist-terrorist state’s fuel supply can and will cripple it, and it might even make the entire shithole collapse into a heap of rubble. Ukraine must hit refineries and other oil infrastructure like its life depends on it. It actually does.