Oct 16
Laughably, Putin has offered a ceasefire
Ukraine’s military are proving successful on every front, but two areas of interest can be highlighted this week. First the build-up of Belarussian and Russian soldiers on the North Ukraine border. I believe this mixed force is intended to be a distraction. Placing Russian soldiers alongside Belarus soldiers might also be a form of intimidation on Lukashenko and his people.
This force consists mainly of infantry without armour or artillery. The reason for this is because months ago Belarus gave most of its heavy weapons to Putin to assist him in holding Donbas.
This threat does however, force Ukraine to place some of its forces on the border as a precaution. If Belarus invades under pressure from Putin they will be slaughtered by artillery, air superiority and other heavy weapons.
My second highlight is Kherson. The Ukrainian army has renewed its advance from the north-east towards the Inhulets River. They have resupplied, refuelled and look capable of sealing off the Russian army in the east of Kherson Oblast.
If Russia reinforces them from Kherson city they weaken their western flank and open the doors to the city. The Russian appointed Governor and Mayor have fled south to Crimea. This indicates that they believe they cannot hold the area north of the Dnipro for much longer.
Laughably, Putin has offered a ceasefire in return for withdrawing from Kherson. Ukraine will take Kherson without his ‘ceasefire’. He can’t trade what Zelensky can take.
When Russia withdraws, they will withdraw without their heavy weapons for two reasons; they have no fuel and the bridges behind them are down.
The next two weeks will be a positive time for Ukraine. We in the west must not think the job is done. There is still a long way to go and unless Putin takes the sensible route and withdraws from Ukraine his war will extend into the summer of 2023. The western nations must remain at Zelensky’s side until the job is completely done.
Slava Ukraini!
Who Dares Shares
Robin Horsfall
