Oct 5

Why Ukraine must join NATO asap – and why I am worried about the nukes. Russia is falling apart, militarily as well as politically. After successful counter-offensive on the north-east, Ukraine is now succeeding in the south-east, liberating Liman and numerous towns in Kherson region (total number of liberated Ukrainian towns now stands at 1,534). 700,000 people left Russua following the “partial mobilization” announcement. And formerly pro-Putin military bloggers are turning on Kremlin, criticizing Russian authorities for their ineptitude.

I am elated and worried at the same time. My joy comes from the obvious reason of seeing evil defeated. My worry comes from knowing President Vladimir Putin will not give up easily and still has the last card to play – a nuclear strike.

Ukraine’s heart – Kyiv – has thus far remained relatively unmolested. So has Ukraine’s star of the west – Lviv. Both cities, however, have been hit by the missiles before. Without the Iron Dome type of defense, they are, therefore, remain exposed. Decision not to strike then is clearly a political, not a military one.

Between the two, I am less concerned about Kyiv. Annihilating it would distance from Putin even his closest supporters.

Lviv is a different story. In Russia, it has been historically portrayed as the cradle of Ukraine’s nationalism. It is a high value political and military target.

While this is not my base case scenario, I am, therefore, highly concerned about Russia’s nuclear missile strike against Lviv. It can be Putin’s last hurrah and his way to instill fear both within Russia and around the globe.

Unlike the conventional weapons, nuclear – including the tactical ones that Putin might use under such scenario – also have a “side effect” of the fallout & radioactive contaminatation. Targeting Lviv will hence curtail humanitarian and military supply lines between Ukraine and the West. It will not change the outcome of war – but it will inflict unimaginable damage.

Is there a way to de-risk and to avoid such outcome?

There is one – and, in fact, only one – option. It is to admit Ukraine into NATO asap. Joining the Alliance will both extend to Ukraine the West’s nuclear and conventional air defense umbrellas. More importantly it will – perversely – give Putin a way out.

Putin cannot fathom being defeated by Ukraine, which he has long portrayed as a failed state. It will mean loss of face and loss of control.

Being defeated by a “mighty” enemy, such as NATO, is a different story. There is far less humiliation in such defeat – and far greater chance for Putin’s personal survival.

If Ukraine is admitted, NATO may not even need to put its boots on the ground. Given enough support, Ukrainians will do their job.

Ukraine’s NATO membership, however, will deter a nuclear strike by Russia. And that is a win for Ukraine, Europe and the world.

warinukraine #ukrainewillprevail #nato #nuclearweapons