June 29

I was invited to speak at Tuesday’s international conference “Ukraine and NATO on the eve of the Vilnius Summit: From Support via Victory to Membership”, organised by GLOBSEC.

The event included distinguished speakers like Michał SZCZERBA (Vice-President, NATO PA), Ihor ZHOVKVA (Deputy Head of the Office of the President of UKR), Gen Ben HODGES, (Commanding General, US Army Europe (2014-2017)), Gen Michel YAKOVLEFF (Vice Chief of Staff SHAPE (2014-2016)), Laurynas KASČIŪNAS (Chairman, NSDC, Parliament of the Republic of Lithuania), Annegret KRAMP-KARRENBAUER (Minister of Defence (2019-2021)), Ian BRZEZINSKI (Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Europe and NATO Policy (2001-2005)), Gen Volodymyr HAVRYLOV (Deputy Minister of Defence), Gen Richard SHIRREFF (Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe (2011-2014)), Roderich KIESEWETTER (Deputy Foreign Policy Spokesperson, Bundestag) and Oleksiy DANILOV (Secretary of the NSDC of Ukraine). And many more.

In my speech, I addressed the misconception that NATO membership is solely in the interests of Ukraine. Firstly, it is fighting our war. Secondly, it is in NATO and the EU’s interest to ensure a Ukrainian victory). Thirdly, Ukrainian NATO membership will help end the war,

Accepting Ukraine into a defensive military alliance is not an act of escalation or war: It would be an act of diplomacy forcing Russia to consider the consequences of continuing a war.

The West has not changed its strategy since 2014. It only does more of what it already did before 24 February. Ukraine’s international partners still lack a commonly agreed aim and objective, and, therefore, a unified strategy. NATO keeps military power off the table despite its commitment to intervene in its late strategic concept. The West is still governed by fear. The US and some Europe countries still seek negotiations and, therefore, appeasement.

The present ”strategy” has turned peace into conflict and a full-scale war.

The West need a new strategy. Offering Ukraine a NATO membership at Vilnius – effective from 1 August – would allow Russia to withdraw its forces from Ukraine (or face a war with a collective West). It would offer Putin an off-ramp and an opportunity to present himself as the stateman that de-escalated and averted a “WW3”.

A Ukrainian NATO membership accession could end the war without a single shot being fired by a coalition of the willing.

The West has the means to end the war but has so far refused to use them. In the words of Hanne Hopko:

“Crime of inaction is worse than crimes of aggression. When you know you can help and save lives but don’t do this .. or deliberately delay with decisions. Moral decadence or degradation is much cynical .. this is how evil prevails.”

It is time to face our fears and solve a war that would have never happened if the West had demonstrated resolve and invested in security and defence during the last three decades (one of which includes the ongoing war).

…….

Comment from Pamela Williamson:

“Crime of inaction is worse than crimes of aggression. When you know you can help and save lives but don’t do this .. or deliberately delay with decisions. Moral decadence or degradation is much cynical .. this is how evil prevails.”
Excellent analysis, thank you Hans Petter Midttun. You are so right. It would be an ‘act of diplomacy’ not war!

John Hill:

Excellent analysis. Crimes of omission always trump crimes of commission. The inaction of fear.