Yuri Shutyak
Sept 15
šŖ It’s official! In the course of assault, the Defense Forces took control of the village of Andriyvka in Donetsk region, – General Staff
Our heroes are causing significant losses in manpower and machinery, consolidating at the borders reached, The General Staff added.
Very positive news!
Yesterday, this page, which normally confines itself to factual reports on military activity, published a curious item. Itās an imperfect translation, like everything on FB, but itās very interesting. It purports to come from āOleg Sharpā, who does not seem to have a media presence. Comments were mixed. Some agreed, some thought he was a kind of Ukrainian Vanga (the Bulgarian woman believed to have Nostradamus-type powers).
Anyway here it is:
āWhen will the war end and will we be able to cross the 1991 borders?
Iāve talked to many politicians and military analysts about this. Based on their opinion, in general:
The hot phase of the war is likely to end with a frozen front in November-December 2024. No documents, except the international ceasefire document, will be signed. Likely, “peacekeepers” from India, China, Kazakhstan, Britain, Germany and Japan will be deployed on the line of conflict (these countries are currently being considered during sideline consultations). All sanctions against Russia will be preserved.
The Korean version for many years to come. But these years will play on Ukraine, which will quickly switch to weapons (including aviation) NATO and launch production of RSD. Russia has already shown its military maximum – except YAZ, but the likelihood of its application is extremely low.ā
– Oleg Sharp
Thoughts?
Anyone know what YAZ refers to?
Original:
ŠŠ¾Š»Šø Š·Š°ŠŗŃŠ½ŃŠøŃŃŃŃ Š²ŃŠ¹Š½Š°, Ń ŃŠø Š²Š“Š°ŃŃŃŃŃ Š½Š°Š¼ Š²ŠøŠ¹ŃŠø Š½Š° ŠŗŠ¾ŃŠ“Š¾Š½Šø 1991 ŃŠ¾ŠŗŃ?
ŠÆ ŃŠ¾Š·Š¼Š¾Š²Š»ŃŠ² Š· Š±Š°Š³Š°ŃŃŠ¼Š° ŠæŠ¾Š»ŃŃŠøŠŗŠ°Š¼Šø ŃŠ° Š²ŃŠ¹ŃŃŠŗŠ¾Š²ŠøŠ¼Šø Š°Š½Š°Š»ŃŃŠøŠŗŠ°Š¼Šø Š· ŃŃŠ¾Š³Š¾ ŠæŃŠøŠ²Š¾Š“Ń. Š”ŠæŠøŃŠ°ŃŃŠøŃŃ Š½Š° ŃŃ Š“ŃŠ¼ŠŗŠø, ŃŠ·Š°Š³Š°Š»ŃŠ½Ń:
Š”ŠŗŠ¾ŃŃŃ Š·Š° Š²ŃŠµ, Š³Š°ŃŃŃŠ° ŃŠ°Š·Š° Š²ŃŠ¹Š½Šø Š·Š°ŠŗŃŠ½ŃŠøŃŃŃŃ Š·Š°Š¼Š¾ŃŠ¾Š·ŠŗŠ¾Ń ŃŃŠ¾Š½ŃŃ Ń Š»ŠøŃŃŠ¾ŠæŠ°Š“Ń-Š³ŃŃŠ“Š½Ń 2024 ŃŠ¾ŠŗŃ. ŠŠ¾Š“Š½ŠøŃ Š“Š¾ŠŗŃŠ¼ŠµŠ½ŃŃŠ², Š¾ŠŗŃŃŠ¼ Š¼ŃŠ¶Š½Š°ŃŠ¾Š“Š½Š¾Š³Š¾ Š“Š¾ŠŗŃŠ¼ŠµŠ½ŃŃ ŠæŃŠ¾ ŠæŃŠøŠæŠøŠ½ŠµŠ½Š½Ń Š²Š¾Š³Š½Ń, ŠæŃŠ“ŠæŠøŃŠ°Š½Š¾ Š½Šµ Š±ŃŠ“Šµ. Š”ŠŗŠ¾ŃŃŃ Š·Š° Š²ŃŠµ, Š½Š° Š»ŃŠ½ŃŃ Š±Š¾Š¹Š¾Š²Š¾Š³Š¾ Š·ŃŃŠŗŠ½ŠµŠ½Š½Ń Š±ŃŠ“Šµ Š“ŠøŃŠ»Š¾ŠŗŠ¾Š²Š°Š½Š¾ “Š¼ŠøŃŠ¾ŃŠ²Š¾ŃŃŃŠ²” Š· ŠŠ½Š“ŃŃ, ŠŠøŃŠ°Ń, ŠŠ°Š·Š°Ń ŃŃŠ°Š½Ń, ŠŃŠøŃŠ°Š½ŃŃ, ŠŃŠ¼ŠµŃŃŠøŠ½Šø ŃŠ° ŠÆŠæŠ¾Š½ŃŃ (ŃŃ ŠŗŃŠ°ŃŠ½Šø Š½Š°ŃŠ°Š·Ń ŃŠ¾Š·Š³Š»ŃŠ“Š°ŃŃŃŃŃ ŠæŃŠ“ ŃŠ°Ń ŠŗŃŠ»ŃŠ°ŃŠ½ŠøŃ ŠŗŠ¾Š½ŃŃŠ»ŃŃŠ°ŃŃŠ¹). ŠŃŃ ŃŠ°Š½ŠŗŃŃŃ ŠæŃŠ¾ŃŠø ŃŠ¾ŃŃŃ Š·Š±ŠµŃŠµŠ¶ŃŃŃŃŃ.
ŠŠ¾ŃŠµŠ¹ŃŃŠŗŠøŠ¹ Š²Š°ŃŃŠ°Š½Ń Š½Š° Š“Š¾Š²Š³Ń ŃŠ¾ŠŗŠø. ŠŠ»Šµ ŃŃ ŃŠ¾ŠŗŠø Š³ŃŠ°ŃŠøŠ¼ŃŃŃ Š½Š° Š£ŠŗŃŠ°ŃŠ½Ń, ŃŠŗŠ° ŃŠ²ŠøŠ“ŠŗŠøŠ¼Šø ŃŠµŠ¼ŠæŠ°Š¼Šø ŠæŠµŃŠµŃ Š¾Š“ŠøŃŠøŠ¼Šµ Š½Š° Š¾Š·Š±ŃŠ¾ŃŠ½Š½Ń (Š²ŠŗŠ»ŃŃŠ°ŃŃŠø Š°Š²ŃŠ°ŃŃŃ) ŠŠŠ¢Š ŃŠ° Š·Š°ŠæŃŃŃŠøŃŃ Š²ŠøŃŠ¾Š±Š½ŠøŃŃŠ²Š¾ Š Š”Š. Š Š¾ŃŃŃ Š¶ ŃŠ²ŃŠ¹ Š²ŃŠ¹ŃŃŠŗŠ¾Š²ŠøŠ¹ Š¼Š°ŠŗŃŠøŠ¼ŃŠ¼ Š²Š¶Šµ ŠæŠ¾ŠŗŠ°Š·Š°Š»Š° – Ń ŃŠ±Š° ŃŠ¾ ŠÆŠ, Š°Š»Šµ Š¹Š¼Š¾Š²ŃŃŠ½ŃŃŃŃ ŃŃ Š·Š°ŃŃŠ¾ŃŃŠ²Š°Š½Š½Ń Š²ŠŗŃŠ°Š¹ Š¼Š°Š»Š°. – ŠŠ»ŠµŠ³ ŠØŠ°ŃŠæ
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I don’t think that we will see such an ending.
The time frame seems unfortunately to be quite likely, given the trickledown weapons policy, the GOP split on Ukraine funding and the pending election?
Romney sadly thinks that his pro-Ukraine faction is now in the minority.
The writer is perhaps purposely vague, but he seems to imply one of the better outcomes, ie return to legal borders, demilitarized zone, peacekeeping forces, continuation of sanctions.
Absence of course of reparations and war crimes prosecutions, which would have to wait until the collapse of the RF.
Do you visualize a more, or less positive outcome facts?
I do, Scradge. Although it will cost lots of blood, the Ukrainians are NOT willing to relent on any of their lands. Most in the West do not comprehend this level of determination. We have lived too long in a fluffy, pink, soft woke world to understand. This strong determination to be free alone will prevent anything else but to at least liberate the entire country of these creatures, if not, to completely destroy their military.
Another point is that the mafiosi have no viable concept to win this war. They acted stupidly a year and a half ago, and they are still acting stupid. This is true regardless of how many generals get fired and hired. Although the Ukrainians had made their own mistakes, they do learn quickly and adapt fast. Right now, they are concentrating not only on liberating land, but destroying the orc’s capabilities in logistics and their artillery systems. Without gun barrels available, even having 10,000,000 rounds won’t do you much good.
This, in a nutshell.
Thatās what I said :
āreturn to legal borders, demilitarized zone, peacekeeping forces, continuation of sanctions.āØAbsence of course of reparations and war crimes prosecutions, which would have to wait until the collapse of the RF.ā
Itās everything except a formal peace deal (impossible under putler), reparations and war crimes prosecutions; which canāt happen until the end of putlerism.
Ukraine gets her legal borders, demilitarized zone and peacekeeping forces.
Conflict is frozen, but not to Putlerās advantage.
When I said that I donāt think that we will see such an ending, I meant the one described in the article. I guess I should’ve made that clear.
I chose to interpret the āline of conflictā as the legal borders of Ukraine. I think thatās what āOlegā was saying.
But he leaves it open to a range of interpretations.
We both agree 100% that only the legal borders are acceptable.
Where I would compromise is on the question of reparations and prosecution for war crimes. There can be no possibility of waiving them, only deferring until the end of putlerism.
The solution I outlined is acceptable. No end to sanctions, no compromise, no āpeace dealā, a demilitarized zone and permanent peacekeeping forces.
Ukraine will rebuild in comparative safety.
Itās a virtual mirror of the Korea solution.
I donāt see anything else being possible without a liberal revolution in Russia. Which at the moment seems about 1% likely.
Spot on! Can’t argue with that logic!
Only YAZ I found thus far is the ruzzian tanker, but that doesn’t seem to fit the narrative.