Weeks after his dismissal triggered days of protests, former Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov surged into third place in a presidential poll and was projected to defeat Volodymyr Zelenskyy 63.8% to 36.2% in a hypothetical runoff — raising the question of whether public anger can propel him into a lasting political career.

Two recent polls captured a dramatic realignment in Ukrainians’ trust in and support for the country’s political figures. Mykhailo Fedorov, now a former defense minister, has emerged as a rising star.

Within weeks, Fedorov went from an unconventional but otherwise ordinary government official to one of the fastest-rising figures in Ukrainian electoral politics and a credible challenger to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

His ascent is inseparable from Zelenskyy’s decision to dismiss him, a move that unexpectedly triggered days of protests.

The demonstrators ultimately achieved one of their goals, forcing Zelenskyy to remove Oleksandr Syrskyi as commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Mykhailo Drapatyi replaced him. They did not secure Fedorov’s return to the Defense Ministry, but the former minister’s poll numbers vaulted into the top tier of Ukrainian politics.

Can Fedorov stay there and turn his potential into a successful political career?

A Kyiv International Institute of Sociology poll conducted in the second half of July found that 63% of respondents trusted Fedorov, 16% did not and 14% said they did not know who he was. In a similar KIIS survey conducted in May and June, the figures for the then-defense minister were 50%, 21% and 20%, respectively.

Political analyst Ihor Reiterovych said the main reason for the rapid rise in trust was that the “father” of Diia had managed, while leading the Defense Ministry, to present a vision for ending the war from a position of strength.

“Citizens really liked that vision, and when officials decided to replace him with virtually no explanation or adequate reason, people felt as though their future was being taken away,” Reiterovych said.

Volodymyr Fesenko, chair of the Penta Center for Applied Political Studies, said Fedorov had already been well known in expert and political circles before his dismissal, where his work was viewed favorably. But the conflict surrounding his removal did more than draw wider public attention. It “placed him at the center of the political process,” driving the surge in his personal popularity.

Although Fedorov continues to distance himself from politics and even from the demonstrations supporting him, pollsters took the next step and measured his support in a presidential race.

The result was startling, if not entirely unexpected. Fedorov vaulted into third place with 13.1% in a SOCIS poll. Only Zelenskyy, at 22.3%, and his perennial electoral rival Valerii Zaluzhnyi, at 21.4%, ranked higher. Zaluzhnyi is Ukraine’s ambassador to Britain and a former commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces.

More strikingly, Zelenskyy appears to have created a dangerous new opponent for himself. Earlier polling suggested the president would lose a hypothetical runoff only to Zaluzhnyi. Fedorov has now joined the former commander-in-chief among the potential candidates who could defeat the incumbent, along with Zelenskyy’s chief of staff, Kyrylo Budanov.

In a hypothetical runoff, the poll projected Fedorov defeating Zelenskyy 63.8% to 36.2%.

Turning those numbers into a viable political campaign, however, will be difficult. Reiterovych believes Fedorov’s surge is largely a product of the moment and will not last.

“This is not the same story as Zaluzhnyi, who had a very long record to build on,” Reiterovych said. “So far, Fedorov has had a short, though impressive, record connected to the Defense Ministry. His behavior also raises questions for many people, so I think that if another poll is conducted in a month, his ratings will already have changed.”

Trust in Fedorov could remain high because “he left with his head held high,” Reiterovych said, while his presidential support could fall sharply.

“That often happens with politicians who burst onto the scene,” he said. “If that momentum does not lead to a concrete next step, they lose their support very quickly.”

Fesenko noted, however, that many experts once predicted a similar decline for Zaluzhnyi. The former commander-in-chief’s rating has endured for more than 2 1/2 years despite his absence from active domestic politics.

“Attitudes toward him have cooled, and his ratings are no longer as stratospheric as they were in 2022–2023, but a significant share of Ukrainians still view him as an alternative to Zelenskyy,” Fesenko said.

The fate of political “supernovas” can be unpredictable, he added. They can become fringe figures, as happened with former presidential office adviser Oleksii Arestovych and “Kremlin captive” Nadiya Savchenko. They can also flame out unexpectedly at the polls, as former Defense Minister Anatoliy Hrytsenko did in 2019. He had led the polls but finished only fifth in the first round of the presidential election.

“A certain political myth has formed around Fedorov, just as it once did around Zaluzhnyi, and that myth has roots in reality,” Fesenko said. “It is the myth of a successful reformer — someone who did a great deal for Ukraine’s defense and for successfully waging the war against Russia, a tech-savvy figure and a new political star.”

Like Zelenskyy in 2019, Fedorov has become a favorite among younger voters, who see him as technologically adept, modern and connected to global leaders. He also appeals to a significant share of the middle class and business community.

His position is weaker among the country’s broader conservative electorate, where Zelenskyy, Zaluzhnyi and Budanov perform better.

“If he seeks the highest offices, his political prospects will depend on how successfully he can attract and persuade this conservative Ukrainian electorate, which may otherwise vote for Poroshenko, Yulia Tymoshenko or Zelenskyy,” Fesenko said.

To maintain that momentum, a politician must remain active, avoid political mistakes and take concrete steps toward a defined goal.

That is where Fedorov has a problem.

Political analysts believe Fedorov now stands at a crossroads: He can accept Zelenskyy’s offer to become deputy prime minister for defense, return to business or pursue civic and political work.

Speaking on volunteer and blogger Serhii Sternenko’s podcast on Aug. 6, Fedorov said he had not ruled out returning as defense minister.

“As long as people are fighting for tomorrow, as long as my name is being mentioned and people generally believe this can be done, and as long as there is no clear ‘no’ today, I believe we always have a chance,” he said.

A source on Fedorov’s team told NV that he still believes he has a chance to return to the Defense Ministry.

Fedorov is not considering the deputy prime minister’s post. In his view, it would amount to little more than an advisory role, without the ability to build a team or influence actual results.

“You could have an institutional conflict with the ministries under your supervision because you do not choose their leaders. You may have different views on the policies they pursue,” he told Ukrainska Pravda. “So it is more of a symbolic role, one that is not designed to make use of my strengths.”

Fedorov has not announced any firm plans for the future and, accordingly, has taken no concrete steps.

The former minister said he would discuss what comes next only after Aug. 18, when parliament is expected to vote on the appointment of a defense minister. Acting Defense Minister Yevhen Khmara currently holds the post.

“So let’s get past that date, or those dates, and then I will talk about the path ahead,” Fedorov said. “I have plans B, C and D.”

Fesenko believes Fedorov is accustomed to being part of Zelenskyy’s team and is not yet psychologically prepared for a complete break with the president. Reiterovych offered a similar assessment of the new star in Ukraine’s opinion polls, saying the former minister would try to remain on the team and accept a “reasonable compromise.”

Neither analyst believes Fedorov is likely to join the opposition to Zelenskyy.

“So far, Fedorov has not shown himself to be much of a politician. If he is betting entirely on somehow pressuring Zelenskyy into giving way, that is very risky. It is essentially putting all his eggs in one basket,” Reiterovych said. “For any politician, that is a very risky and dangerous strategy.”

If Fedorov accepts his dismissal and is effectively pushed out of Zelenskyy’s team, his ratings will crumble, the analyst said.

Whatever happens, Fesenko is convinced that politics will not let Fedorov go.

“Unless the war drags on, the political process will pull him in,” Fesenko said. “He already has one foot in politics.”

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