Oleg Davygora15:38, 28.10.24

Trump’s advisers say America should not bear the financial burden of maintaining peace, and suggest shifting that responsibility to European countries.

If he returns to the White House, former US President Donald Trump intends to quickly end the war in Ukraine by “freezing” it.

According to his team’s plans, the conflict could be resolved by creating autonomous zones and demilitarized zones on both sides of the border, but without Ukraine joining NATO. European countries have been asked to assume the role of guarantors and “overseers” of the peace process, while the participation of the United States and NATO will be minimal, the Financial Times writes .

“I wrote speeches for defense secretaries 20 years ago, begging our partners to step up. Collectively, NATO can shoulder a large share of this defense burden. If they’re not going to do it now, when are they going to do it?” said Mike Waltz, the top Republican on national security in the House. 

It is noted that after pressure in Trump’s first term, NATO members and East Asian allies increased the share of their budgets spent on defense. As of June, 23 of NATO’s 32 members had met their goal of spending 2 percent of GDP on defense, double what they had four years earlier. But in Trump’s second term, they will face pressure to do more.

Germany and France, Europe’s two largest economies, both of which recently hit the 2 percent mark, could face particular pressure both because of their defense spending and their bilateral trade surplus with America, the reporters noted. Fred Fleitz, a former CIA analyst who worked in the Trump White House, noted:

“I think it’s going to be tough for them and for NATO members who don’t pay 2 percent. It’s a big deal for Trump.”

Fleitz says he does not speak for Trump and does not know his foreign policy plans, but he believes energy security, trade balance and protecting supply lines will be priorities in a second term.

It is noted that Trump and his vice-presidential running mate J.D. Vance have repeatedly spoken about their desire to end the war in Ukraine.

“The question is how to do it. A rare insight came in September, when Vance outlined the idea of ​​a frozen conflict with autonomous regions on either side of the demilitarized zone – and Kyiv in diplomatic limbo, outside NATO,” the article says.

The plan, one Trump adviser says, could be a reimagining of the failed Minsk agreements of 2014 and 2015.

This time, the adviser argues, there will be enforcement mechanisms with consequences for breaking the agreement. But it will have to be overseen by European troops, not NATO forces or UN peacekeepers, he argues, adding:

“America will insist on two things. We will have neither men nor women in the enforcement mechanism. We are not paying for this. Europe is paying for this.”

Trump’s allies argue that Ukraine is losing the war and therefore pushing for a settlement is morally right. He believes Biden should have talked to Putin, as presidents did with Soviet leaders during the Cold War, and that NATO membership is not an option for Ukraine in the short term.

Fleitz says membership could be taken off the table for a few years to force Russia to negotiate.

“We are freezing the conflict, Ukraine is not giving up any territory, they are not giving up their territorial claims, and we are negotiating with the understanding that there will probably be no final agreement until Putin is gone from the scene,” he said.

Journalists write that such an approach would not receive unified support within the Republican Party. 

Elbridge Colby, a Pentagon aide in Trump’s first term, dismisses the argument that the deal will embolden Beijing.

“They will not wait patiently to be taught the moral history of what is happening thousands of miles away. They will look at the balance of power in Asia and our resolve there. If anything, it is in their interest to weaken Russia in a protracted war and thus make it more dependent on China,” he said.

As for how to force Putin to negotiate, he suggests that Trump could threaten to collapse Russia’s economy by cutting oil and gas prices.

“The president understands leverage very well, and we have enormous economic leverage over Russia,” he explained.

(c)UNIAN 2024