ROBIN HORSFALL

Oct 6

Recent Ukrainian advances in Luhansk and Kherson are forcing Russian generals to withdraw and look for new lines of defence.
It is essential that Ukraine maintain contact with the enemy and allow no space in the battle for Russia to stabilise their retreat.

Ukraine has ensured that this war is a war of mobility. They are outflanking, probing and isolating large areas under Russian control.

The fox is among the chickens and the chickens don’t know which way to fly. Wars are won with logistics, clever Generals, superior weapons and brave soldiers. Ukraine has all four. They have prepared the logistical support to maintain their advances. UA Generals have deceived and out manoeuvred the enemy, forcing them to abandon expensive materiel while Ukrainian soldiers have proved themselves to be determined and courageous warriors. The next weeks are going to be exhausting for UA soldiers but absolutely disastrous for Russians.

The weather is wet, but weather affects both sides equally. The next stop line for retreating Russian armies in Kherson is the Inhulets River but that will not save them. They have no resupply. The bridges are down. Troops without ammunition and food will surrender.

In Luhansk the same applies. Lysychansk and Syeverodonetsk are under threat as their main supply routes are cut. Russia’s last line of defence might be the international border.

Wars have been fought in winter before, resting while the enemy is in disarray is a mistake, a mistake Ukraine will not make. They are taking the war to the invader and winning.

When this stage of the war is over they will look south to Donbas and Crimea to recover all their stolen lands.

Slava Ukraini!

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Robin Horsfall