The Kremlin believes that returning Ukraine and the rest of the “historical Russian lands” is possible only as part of a global redistribution of the world, and also sees internal destabilization in Ukraine as the key to Russia’s victory, Head of the Foreign Intelligence Service Oleksandr Lytvynenko has said.

“Putin is convinced that returning Ukraine and the rest of the ‘historical Russian lands’ and restoring the empire is possible only within the global redistribution of the world. Such redistribution can last 10-15 years, accompanied by conflicts of varying scale and intensity, possibly with the use of nuclear weapons. Moreover, the war against Ukraine is perceived by the Kremlin as an important, but not the only front for Russia, which is actually waging a world war with the United States and the West as a whole,” Lytvynenko said in a column for Interfax-Ukraine.

In his opinion, four tasks that the Kremlin is currently solving arise from this indicated approach. The first task is to ensure internal stability, mobilize the population and economy, and increase the production of weapons and military equipment.

Lytvynenko said the Kremlin so far ensures economic stability and controllability of socio-political processes. In 2026, Russian military production should support large-scale, high-intensity combat operations, and in 2028, Russia should regain the military capabilities it had in 2022. This is exactly why the 2024-2026 Russian budget was formed.

According to the Foreign Intelligence Service’s head, the Kremlin’s second task is to form an alternative coalition of countries to the West, a “coalition of the majority,” and this “Global South+” format should promote models alternative to the West (political, economic, financial, humanitarian, values, etc.). Russia’s goal in building a coalition is “normalization of the West.”

He noted the role of, inter alia, increased nuclear blackmail to break the West’s will to confrontation, convincing Western elites that they would lose and should retreat peacefully. The key role here will be played by strengthening the military power of Russia, China and other countries of the majority coalition.

The third Kremlin task, according to Lytvynenko, is preparation for the upcoming aggression against other countries. The priority now is Moldova and the Baltic countries: Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia: the entire western part of the former USSR, and the Kremlin has already begun this work. The reason is a violation of the rights of Russian speakers (primarily Latvia, Estonia). Moscow is already crying out about the oppression of Russian speakers in the Baltics and the right of peoples to self-determination.

“After sending Russian spy diplomats, the Russians are actively infiltrating the countries of Europe, primarily Southern Europe, with their agents, creating businesses, NGOs, etc. There are signs that the infrastructure of subversive activities is being prepared for a great war (an approach tested during the Soviet era),” the Foreign Intelligence Service’s head said.

The Kremlin’s fourth task, in his opinion, is to inflame conflicts in the Middle East, Africa and the Balkans.

Lytvynenko is confident that Putin needs as much Ukrainian territory as he can get. He pointed out that the war has entered the stage of a war of attrition, and there is growing evidence that the Kremlin is ready to fight the war for as long as necessary.

According to him, at the instigation of the Russian FSB (which considers the current strategy to undermine Western military, economic and political assistance to be ineffective), the Kremlin plans to adjust the strategy. The key to Russia’s victory is internal destabilization in Ukraine.

Thus, it is expected to concentrate on three tasks: pressure along the entire front line with the capture of individual, politically and medially important points, in particular, Avdiivka; destruction of critical infrastructure in winter; undermining social unity by fueling ambitions and provoking the military (“only they can restore order”) and opposition political forces (“only they are worthy to lead Ukraine”).

“A critical mass of dissatisfaction with the policies of the current government must form in Ukraine. Russians do not care who comes to power after the current leadership. They are convinced that whoever it is will not be able to take control of the situation, and Ukraine will plunge into chaos. In the end, the West will not only suspend aid, but will also come to Russia with proposals for urgent negotiations and suspension of the war,” Lytvynenko said.

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