15.07.2025

During a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte at the White House on July 14, US President Donald Trump announced that Ukraine would receive assistance in the form of the transfer of 17 Patriot air defense systems. This statement became the occasion for a heated discussion in expert circles, not so much in connection with the resumption of aid to Ukraine, but rather with what Trump actually meant.

More details about this can be found in the material of the joint project OBOZ.UA and the group “Information Resistance” .

So what will Ukraine get?

First, let’s understand the terminology. In Western military classification, the concept of “system” does not mean a unit, but a group of corresponding equipment that provides a particular function. In other words, the division or battery we are familiar with in the West is called a system. At the same time, a Patriot SAM battery can have 4, 6, 8 or even 10 launchers.

Ukraine received systems (batteries) from its partners, mostly in the amount of 4 launchers. And if we assume that Donald Trump in his speech meant not 17 systems, but 17 launchers, then it turns out that 4 systems (batteries) will be transferred to Ukraine.

Then there is the question of cost. One system is estimated at current prices at $1 billion. At the same time, it is known that the new US aid package is worth $10 billion, so 17 systems cannot be included in it. But four systems worth a little more than $4 billion fit perfectly into the framework of this package.

However, let’s consider both options for assistance that may come to Ukraine: realistic – 4 systems and fantastic – 17 systems. And how will this help our country?

Protection of Ukrainian cities by Patriot air defense systems

I’ll start, perhaps, with a realistic option – four systems.

Today, Patriot air defense systems cover Kyiv, Kyiv region, and some other areas. However, it would be extremely presumptuous to say that an impenetrable air defense dome has been created over Kyiv, primarily meaning protection against ballistic and aeroballistic missiles. Therefore, it would be logical to strengthen the capital’s air defense with at least one system.

The other three Patriot systems are an opportunity to cover three large cities from ballistic and aeroballistic strikes – for example, Dnipro, Zaporizhia and Odessa. On the other hand, it is possible to distribute them in a different format – to cover 1-2 large cities and an important area in the rear of Ukraine. Or, having covered a large city and an important rear area, to recreate wandering hunters for Russian tactical aviation.

The most interesting thing is that we are discussing systems and launchers, but, as I indicated above, a battery can include a different number of launchers, and the determining factor is, for example, the number of radars and fire control points (FCPs). In some cases, a battery can consist of two or just one launcher – if there are enough auxiliary means for this.

That is, to a certain extent, four Patriot batteries can be transformed into eight batteries of a reduced type, and under certain conditions even into several roving hunters for Russian tactical aircraft.

In fact, such a number of full-fledged batteries will not be able to fully satisfy the needs for the protection of even all cities with a population of millions in Ukraine, but with a certain transformation, the capabilities of four batteries can be significantly expanded.

Now let’s consider a fantastic option – 17 Patriot systems.

This number of batteries is 68 launchers in the standard configuration, which will allow Ukraine not only to close all cities with a population of over a million, but also to create an air defense axis that will cover Ukraine with a barrier from the entry of ballistic and aeroballistic missiles from south to north, for which 6-8 systems are required.

In addition, such a number of systems, taking into account the above-described option of equipping with two or even one launcher, will significantly expand the capabilities of hunting Russian tactical aircraft, which may lead to the complete cessation of its use by the enemy in the theater of operations.

That is, the fantastic option is the most favorable for Ukraine and would radically change the situation – both in the airspace of the rear of the country and on the battlefield. Moreover, taking into account the capabilities of the Patriot air defense system, it would have an impact, in particular, on the airspace of Russia.

But a fantastic option is still fantastic.

Conclusions

The aid to Ukraine provided by Donald Trump (albeit with the money of partners and through partners) is the beginning of a movement from the deadlock in bilateral relations, in which position we have been for the last six months. Patriot air defense systems are important to Ukraine not only as a means of protection against missile terror from the Russian Federation, but also as an opportunity to exert influence on the theater of military operations.

But we should maintain a certain amount of realism and not succumb to excessive fantasies. I am more than sure that Ukraine will receive exactly four Patriot air defense systems, and besides, it will not happen so quickly – that is, it will take some time.

But the question is not only in the quantitative proportion of launchers and radar/PUV, but also in whether Ukraine will receive permission from the United States, for example, to use the Patriot air defense system against military aircraft of the Russian Federation in the airspace of Russia itself.

This is probably as important a question as how many batteries we end up getting.

https://war.obozrevatel.com/ukr/fantastika-vs-realnist-skilki-zrk-patriot-otrimae-ukraina-i-yak-tse-poznachitsya-na-rosijskomu-terori.htm