August 23, 2023
BRIAN WHITMORE’S TAKE:
To preserve the regime, Putin needs to preserve fear
At the risk of stating the obvious, it is highly unlikely that the airline crash that appears to have killed Prigozhin was an accident. If Prigozhin were not forced to pay a heavy price for his rebellion in June, Putin’s regime would have been severely weakened. This is because the Putin regime essentially operates according to the logic of a crime syndicate. Putin is the godfather. Prigozhin was a capo who apparently didn’t know his place. And in the immortal words of Omar Little of The Wire, “You come at the king, you best not miss.” Putin is famously vindictive and from the moment Prigozhin aborted his march on Moscow, he was a dead man walking.
Historically, political change comes to Russia when three factors are present: a divided elite (check), a dissatisfied public (check), and an absence of fear. If Prigozhin had been left unpunished, fear would have been removed from the equation and the regime would have been in peril.
A couple of other details are also worth noting. On the same day Prigozhin apparently died, his close ally Surovikin was relieved of his duties as chief of the Russian Air Force. And as news of the plane crash spread, Putin was busy presenting the Hero of Russia award to soldiers live on television. Russian journalists were quick to note that in June 2022, Putin gave the same award to Prigozhin. So the optics of Prigozhin’s elimination appear to have also been carefully choreographed.
—Brian Whitmore is a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, assistant professor of practice at the University of Texas-Arlington, and founder and host of The Power Vertical Podcast.
For the full article, click here:
ROBIN HORSFALL’S TAKE:
The Prig is dead.
Reports are just coming in that a private jet carrying seven passengers and three crew, including Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner Mercenary forces, crashed over Russia today.
This should come as no surprise to anyone. Those who follow my posts will recall that I predicted that he had a short time to live after his failed race towards Moscow.
The attack dog got too dangerous and the other dog of war Sergei Surovikin, is ‘taking a rest’.
Every week Russia returns to its Stalinist roots and methods. One is 100% with the glorious leader, or one is dead.
Slava Ukraini!
Who Dares Shares
Robin Horsfall