EXCLUSIVE: A win in Ukraine for Russia could be the first step towards a full European war which would easily escalate into World War III, an expert has said.
By JON KING
Sat, Oct 21, 2023
Vladimir Putin winning in Ukraine would be the first step to a full European war, an expert says (Image: Getty)
A win for Vladimir Putin in Ukraine could trigger World War 3 – so Britain needs to triple its £4.6billion support for the war-torn country instead of cutting it, an expert has said.
Analysts say the Russian president is playing a waiting game, believing Western support for Ukraine will eventually wane and Moscow will triumph over its neighbour.
Some have suggested the cost to the public purse of Britain’s military aid to the Ukrainians is putting a strain on the country’s finances, which also took a battering during the Covid pandemic.
Net debt stood at £2.599trillion at the end of September, equalling around 97.8 percent of UK GDP and 2.1 percentage points higher than the same time last year, according to the ONS.
But John R. Bryson, professor of enterprise and economic geography at the University of Birmingham, told Express.co.uk a win for Russia would trigger major costs for Britons.
He said: “The UK should triple its level of fiscal commitment to Ukraine. There should be no question in reducing the UK’s commitment to help the UK balance national accounts.
“There is a real danger Russia could win its war with Ukraine and any such win would result in major additional costs to the UK. A win in Ukraine for Russia could be the first step towards a full European war and such a war could easily escalate into World War 3.”
Professor Bryson added the new conflict in the Middle East between Israel and Hamas has distracted attention from the Ukrainian conflcit as will the next UK general election.
But he said: “One would hope all UK politicians would see the sense of continuing to support Ukraine and to increase this support.
“It is important to remember Ukraine is only in this situation because European countries failed to respond appropriately to Putin’s annexation of Crimea and failed to support Ukraine in the period just before this war commenced.
“There were times when interventions would have deterred Putin and Russia and these times were ignored. Deciding to reduce the UK’s commitment to Ukraine would be a decision that is really about handing Ukraine to Putin.”
Dr Thilo Huning, a lecturer at the University of York’s Department of Economics, told Express.co.uk World Bank estimates and those of other leading institutions underpin the macroeconomic stress the Russian invasion has put on the world economy, including Britain.
Ukrainian soldiers train with British and Australian counterparts on Salisbury Plain (Image: Getty)
He added: “British shareholders as well as consumers have paid a massive price due to their increase in energy bills, which has also translated into higher prices for energy-intensive goods, including food.
“UK taxpayers’ contribution to shorten the duration of the war is in the interest of the British.”
Dr Huning said in the current situation, balancing the books is not the top priority, adding the Treasury is “well able” to help get the British people through this crisis, as it has with others.
He continued: “Instead of focussing on cuts, the Government needs a clear strategy to pursue economic growth.”
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has already announced military support to Ukraine for 2023 will match the £2.3bn spent last year.
A Ministry of Defence spokesperson said: “The UK and partners will continue to ensure we equip Ukraine as best we can to expel Russia and defend its sovereign territory, and that the capabilities we provide meet the tactical demands of the conflict as it evolves.
“We are liaising with the Ukrainian government and continue to respond to their requests to supply more weapons to help Ukraine defend itself.
“Our support for Ukraine is unwavering, and the Prime Minister and Defence Secretary (Grant Shapps) have been clear that we’ll continue to back Ukraine to ensure they win this war and reclaim their sovereignty.”
Britain has supplied Ukraine with capabilities, including long-range artillery, air defence and armoured vehicles.
Since 2014, the UK has also been training Ukrainian forces, with about 50,000 personnel trained on British soil to date.
Polling undertaken by YouGov one year after Russia invaded Ukraine shows eight in 10 Britons (81 percent) want Kyiv to win the war, with half (52 percent) saying the West was not doing enough to stop the Russians from winning.
Forty-three percent of those polled said Britain should maintain the same level of support it was giving to the beleaguered country.
A little over a quarter (28 percent) wanted to increase the level of support, while 11 percent wanted to reduce support, according to YouGov’s poll.
Professor Bryson said: “Those who would argue the UK’s commitment to Ukraine should be reduced should consider the scale of costs the UK would experience that would come from Russia winning its war and then deciding to target other countries.”
“The UK’s Government’s current fiscal commitment to Ukraine is considerably less than the cost escalation experienced by HS2. Perhaps this is a poor comparison given the HS2 outcome, however, even tripling the level of support would have no real impact on the UK’s fiscal situation.”
……
The HS2 referred in the article is the construction of a high speed rail network, which is costing around £10 bn/yr.
The UK spends $68.5 bn on its armed forces: 2.2% of its GDP. Liz Truss when PM was planning to raise it to 4% before being unfortunately ousted. Current UK DefSec Grant Shapps has similar ambitions.
Only five countries spend more. They are, in order, the US, China, Russia, India and the KSA.
If a democratic nation spends 2% or more of its GDP on its armed forces, it should put 10% of that spend into Ukraine’s defence: $6.8 bn for the UK, not the current $4.6 bn.
In the case of the US, which puts 3.5% of its GDP into defence, it should put 10% of 2%, not 3.5%, to be fair. That would put it around the $100 bn/yr mark.
Countries that don’t meet the 2% of GDP that Nato requires, should give more than 10% of their defence expenditure to Ukraine. In the case of France and Germany, whose blocking of Ukraine’s Nato membership is partly to blame for the putler horror should pay more, as part of reparations. Germany still hasn’t paid Ukraine even one penny for murdering 8.5m Ukrainians in WW2.
Risks for Ukraine:
A Trump administration would be existential.
The UK is unfortunately in grave danger of a crypto-Marxist Labour regime next year. Starmer, like Blair, is on the right of his party. But also like Blair, he is a slippery lawyer who can’t be trusted. He also has a skanky putler bloc in his party which could increase in a new intake of Labour MP’s.
Why is support for Ukraine amongst the British people so much higher than in America? The answer is that agents of Russia, such as Tucker Carlson, have done only too good a job. The UK on the far right has Peter Hitchens, Nigel Farage and on the far left; Jeremy Corbyn and George Galloway, but they are still pretty much on the fringe. The UK also has an Alex Jones analogue; the truly vile David Icke.
“Why is support for Ukraine amongst the British people so much higher than in America?”
The squeaky-voiced fascist Carlson has been gone from regular public airwaves for many months now.
It’s because Britain is much closer to the shithole than the US, and any fallout of a mafia victory will be felt in a harsher way in the UK, and Europe in general, than in the US, although we would also suffer greatly.
The American people have always been a little introverted on the international stage than the US government. Most Americans might not even find the UK on a map without the country names on it. Also, Biden has done a piss poor job to enlighten the American people about the importance of a Ukrainian victory and our strategy to reach such a goal. He and many other pro-Ukrainian aid people have allowed the stupid pro-mafia loudmouths to get on their soap boxes too much, so that they can lather the population with their fascist shit.
“The American people have always been a little introverted on the international stage than the US government. Most Americans might not even find the UK on a map without the country names on it.”
I was watching a guy interviewing the Gen Z on the street, by just asking simple questions. If these are typical Americans, god help the US.
Questions answered wrongly.
Which country is the Panama canal located?
What language do they speak in Brazil?
How many minutes in a quarter of an hour?
…and finally, one for future economists. What is 7×6?
Unbelievably, every person asked the last question, got it wrong.
Just WTF are they teaching kids in school today?
The new way of teaching kids … let them play with their cellphones in class.
Or lessons on how to recognise all the new genders.
That’s more important than teaching useless things like math, English, geography, history, economics, and so on.
AOC : “Under capitalism, man oppresses man. Under socialism, it’s the other way around.”
Brilliant!
Defeating Global Warming Is Pretty Much Like When The Allies Defeated Nazi Germany, Or Something:
“So, when we talk about existential threats,” Ocasio Cortez said during an October campaign rally, “the last time we had a really major existential threat in this country was around World War II. So, we’ve been here before, and we have a blueprint of what we did before.”
Ha! If Climate Change Isn’t Addressed, People Are Gonna Like, Die And Stuff!
Maybe the solution is to support Hamas like Greta the lefty. Kill everyone, then no need to worry about climate change.
If you are a couple of wealthy communist fuckwits who want to promote your brand of idiocy to gullible fools worldwide, what do you do? You hire your gnome-like, Asperger’s suffering child to act as a mouthpiece for your bullshit.
Greta was silent on Ukraine, but then at last came out on their side. Unfortunately she’s now ruined that good work by coming out as a Hamas shill, which by default puts her back in the putler camp.
Now she’s a 20 year old adult, I don’t feel any need to go easy on her, because she’s just another defacto politician.