Hans Petter Midttun
Nonresident fellow hos Centre of Defence Strategies
Aug 6, 2024
My latest interview: War in Ukraine as we know it could be over within a year, Midttun tells EZ
According to Norwegian security expert Hans Petter Midttun the conflict in its current form may potentially end within the next year.
EuroZprávy.cz turned to Norwegian security expert Hans Peter Midttun to outline how the war will continue. “War as we know it today could end within the next year,” he conceded.
He added that although Russia has “almost unlimited” human resources, it is “rapidly running out of main battle tanks, armoured personnel carriers.” According to Midttun, it is “capable of replacing its “huge losses” only by introducing old Soviet weapons to the battlefield.”
“The production of the defence industry has reached its peak, and the Russian industry (non-defence) is suffering from a shortage of 4.8 million workers,” the expert noted, noting that Russia is not even able to replace the high-tech equipment lost on the battlefield. “Even damaged equipment is piling up and waiting to be repaired,” he added.
According to Midttun, the Russian military will have to “dramatically” change its strategy by next year to ensure that its ground forces “remain an effective deterrent”.
“This is also helped by technological progress in the Ukrainian armed forces,” he added. “We are witnessing several trends that are increasingly in favour of Ukraine, including within the drone war, increasing defence support from the West, an increasingly powerful air force and gradually decreasing restrictions on the use of Western-made weapons”. “But that doesn’t necessarily mean the war will end,” he stressed.
Instead of ending, the war may return to “low-intensity conflict, as in 2014-2021”. Above all, Russia will strive to prevent Ukraine from becoming a member of NATO. “It is already a protracted war that has lasted more than ten years. Russia may try to return to a low-intensity conflict if Ukraine allows it. The latter is not at all certain, because Ukraine has clearly stated that it will not give up the territory,” the expert explained.
He also thinks that Europe’s will and ability to support Ukraine is not limited in time, “because Europe long ago recognised that supporting Ukraine is equal to supporting European security and stability.” “After all, this is not a ‘Russian-Ukrainian war’, but a broader Russia-instigated confrontation in which the enemy is the West – not Ukraine,” Midttun added.
The expert warned that failure to support Ukraine will have “devastating consequences” for European security. “The consequences are far-reaching and dramatic. In ten years, European security will gradually strengthen, thereby reducing Russia’s ability to achieve its strategic goals and objectives,” he noted.
Cartoon: KAL
Original article appears on Eurozpravy in Czechia:
Putler and his fellow psychopaths will have gamed out every possible outcome and come to the conclusion that they will continue for another decade if need be. They won’t deviate from their stated objective; the total surrender and subjugation of Ukraine. If it costs ten million orcs, they are prepared for that. There will be more degenerates from shithole countries providing an unlimited source of cannon fodder.
Equipment shortages will gradually improve for them; they have the CRINKS axis of evil behind them plus BRICS.
Only total crushing defeat can stop the horror.
Ukraine needs massive fortification and a credible nuclear deterrent.
If putler’s Trump card is still in play at the end of the year, he will be pushing for a land for peace deal that could be terminal for Ukraine if accepted.