Bogdan Frolov07:49, 10.12.25

The United States is no longer a reliable support for Europe, so the EU is hastily strengthening its own security system, preparing for defense without America.

US President Donald Trump’s barrage of attacks on the European Union is forcing European leaders to confront the unthinkable: a future in which America is no longer their primary security guarantor, and Europe is forced to organize its own defense much faster and sooner than anyone expected.

In anticipation of a diminished US role, EU leaders are already “testing” a European-led security system, Politico reports . Many key decisions regarding Ukraine are being made within an informal “coalition of the willing,” led by the UK and France, and including Germany.

But at the same time, EU politicians are discussing deeper coordination within the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force – or promoting a stronger “European pillar” within NATO, an idea long supported by Paris and now gaining support in Berlin.

Responsibility for Europe’s defense lies with Europe itself

The key question now is not if, but when, Europe will assume primary responsibility for defense. The absence of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio from the recent NATO foreign ministers’ meeting—an event that has occurred only a few times in the alliance’s history—has caused alarm among European and former NATO officials.

These concerns were heightened when his deputy, Christopher Landau, accused EU countries of prioritising their own defence industries rather than continuing to buy from the US.

Efforts to create new formats of interaction independent of Washington received additional impetus last week with the publication of the Trump administration’s new National Security Strategy (NSS).

“The days when the United States, like Atlas, held the entire global order on its shoulders are over. Rich, developed countries must take primary responsibility for their regions,” the document states. In Europe, the strategy asserts, mass migration is “reshaping the continent and creating divisions.”

“If current trends continue, the continent will be unrecognizable in 20 years or less. Therefore, it is far from clear whether the economies and militaries of some European countries will be strong enough to remain reliable allies,” the document also states.

The NSS also describes how if the majority of NATO allies become non-European countries, “the question remains whether they will see their place in the world—and their alliance with the United States—in the same way as those who signed the NATO charter.”

Trump recently reiterated his point: “Europe, subjected to mass migration, is decaying and purposeless. The bloc’s leaders are weak and simply don’t know what to do.”

New European Order

Amid relentless attacks from the Trump administration, the European Union is quietly working on new security guarantees in case NATO’s guarantee proves unreliable.

“The question is whether we need additional security guarantees and institutional mechanisms to be prepared if Article 5 is suddenly not implemented. However, we must always rely on Article 5,” EU Defence Commissioner Andrius Kubilius noted in late November. 

The legal basis for such guarantees is Article 42.7 of the EU Mutual Defense Treaty, which emerged after the Kosovo War in the late 1990s, when French leader Jacques Chirac and British Prime Minister Tony Blair called on Europe to take defense into its own hands. Europe wants to detail the provisions of the article within the next year to ensure clear codes of conduct for countries in the event of an attack.

The end of an era

With European military and intelligence agencies warning that a Russian attack could occur as early as 2028, Europe’s traditional approach to defense—and dependence on the United States—is rapidly changing.

Until recently, Germany was a staunch supporter of the US-led NATO. But under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Berlin is negotiating with Paris on how French nuclear capabilities can strengthen European security.

At the same time, Merz is increasingly willing to diverge from Washington on issues of Ukraine and the European security architecture. He has called some provisions of the US National Security Strategy “unacceptable.”

Lack of opportunities

Europe’s challenge is to move from words to action. The stakes are enormous, not least because a significant strengthening of continental defense would require a reallocation of resources from social spending, which could lead to the collapse of governments.

There’s also an institutional problem: the United States remains NATO’s largest partner, meaning the alliance is not the place to plan for a future “without America.” “That would undermine the very purpose of NATO,” one diplomat said. And currently, there’s no contingency planning within the alliance for a NATO without the United States, the article states.

Some diplomats, speaking on condition of anonymity, interpret Washington’s signals not as preparation for leaving NATO, but as a powerful “kick” to Europe, as the US shifts its attention to the Arctic and the Indo-Pacific region. “The US and NATO allies take their Article 5 obligations very seriously. Article 5 is sacrosanct. But we have expectations,” said US Ambassador Whitaker. 

Namely, for Europeans to take on primary responsibility for the continent’s conventional defense, the media writes.

Can Europe replace the United States?

One of the most difficult challenges is to fill the opportunities that America now provides.

Currently, Europeans provide up to 60% of capabilities in some areas. But in critical areas—reconnaissance, strategic transport, long-range strikes—the lion’s share depends on the United States. It will be extremely difficult for Europe to close this gap, especially in the next year or two.

At the same time, some officials point out that even if the Trump administration wants to leave NATO, Congress could prevent it. The defense bill, which could soon be put to a vote, imposes limits on the reduction of American troops in Europe—a bipartisan “response” to the White House strategy.

Former US Ambassador to the EU Anthony Gardner said the new strategy is nothing less than: “A betrayal of 80 years of US bipartisan policy.”

US policy towards Europe

UNIAN previously reported that the US Congress opposes troop reductions in Europe and South Korea. The document notes that the US cannot reduce its troop levels in Europe to less than 76,000 troops without an assessment and congressional confirmation that such a move will not harm the security interests of the US or NATO.

We also reported that Trump’s new national security strategy will disappoint US allies but please China and Russia. The strategy prioritizes the Western Hemisphere, downplaying the rest of the world. This makes sense geographically, but not strategically. The strategy usefully emphasizes the importance of eliminating malign interests from the hemisphere, although it makes no mention of Russia or China.

(C)UNIAN 2025