https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-help-donald-trump-iran-war-ukraine-finland-alexander-stubb/

Alexander Stubb, a golf buddy of the U.S. president, says it’s a “really good idea” to try to bargain with Trump, who wants Europe to help him open the Strait of Hormuz. 

MARCH 17, 2026 7:56 PM CET

BY TIM ROSS

LONDON — Donald Trump loves to make deals, and one of his closest confidants in Europe believes a pact might be within reach that could help solve both the Gulf oil crisis and the war in Ukraine in one go. 

Finland’s President Alexander Stubb says he can see real potential in offering Trump what he wants: European military support to secure the Strait of Hormuz, the crucial oil shipping route that Iran has effectively blockaded in response to American and Israeli bombing. 

Europe’s condition for providing such assistance? That the U.S. president delivers all the help Ukraine needs to reach an acceptable peace deal with Russia.

The idea of bargaining with Trump was put to Stubb during a question-and-answer session at London’s Chatham House think tank on Tuesday. The Finnish leader seemed surprised — and impressed. “I think it’s a really good idea,” he said, adding after a pause: “No, I think it’s actually a really good idea.” Stubb said he’d consider it further and discuss options with his team. 

Finland itself doesn’t have any assets to contribute to securing the Strait of Hormuz, and it’s still far from clear what role European forces could play there.

But the question of how to bolster Ukraine — and get Trump on board — is an urgent one for Europe. 

Officials — including Stubb — fear the longer Trump’s war against Iran continues, the more it could constrain Ukraine’s fight against invading Russian forces. Soaring global energy prices — and Washington’s decision to loosen sanctions on Russia’s oil industry — will significantly boost Vladimir Putin’s income from Russian fossil fuel sales.

At the same time, American forces are using hundreds of interceptor missiles to shoot down Iranian rockets and drones, leaving fewer available for Ukraine. Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities rely on air defenses for protection against an ongoing barrage of ballistic missiles from Russia. 

And Trump has again recently pressured Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to agree a deal with Putin, without clarifying what — if any — security guarantees America would provide to keep the peace.

Stubb told his audience he feared that peace talks in Ukraine are fast approaching a moment of truth, which could force Kyiv to accept a a bad settlement that involves ceding territory to Putin. The negotiations could even collapse, leaving Europe on the hook — without American help — obliging European powers to step in to help Ukraine with more intelligence, weapons and other support, he said. 

Stubb said he takes a realistic view of how much he is able to influence Trump, after the two bonded over a seven-hour golf and lunch meeting last year. Finland has just bought 64 F-35 fighter jets from the U.S. and hosts thousands of American troops training in Arctic conditions.

“I have no illusions about who can convince President Trump on anything,” Stubb said. “If I get one idea out of 10 in on Ukraine, I think it’s good.”

The implications of the war in Iran are “negative” for Ukraine, mainly because the price of oil favors Russia’s war machinery, Stubb said. “The Russian economy was actually doing extremely badly a couple of weeks back, now it’s bouncing back.” It’s also taking air defense systems away from where they are needed in Ukraine. 

Finally, it has shifted the focus from the peace talks on Ukraine. “I hope the peace negotiations on Ukraine don’t collapse like the negotiations between Iran and the U.S. did,” Stubb said. “But time will tell.”