24.09.2025
The situation near the city of Kupyansk is critical: many small enemy sabotage and reconnaissance groups (DRGs) have been recorded, which are disguised as civilians and are trying to gain a foothold in residential buildings, seeping in like cockroaches. Their first task is observation and reconnaissance: to establish the presence, number and location of Ukrainian units, to find vulnerable areas of our defense. The second task is to carry out attacks, ambushes and explosions in order to injure or kill military personnel, to create chaos and disorganization. Changes in the enemy’s tactics are associated with the active use of drones: he chooses small groups that are harder to notice from the air. DRGs create shelters in abandoned buildings or rely on the support of local “waiters”.
The enemy will try to continue the slow, gradual infiltration into the city, despite constant losses, as well as the physical destruction of the settlement, as has happened before.
To contain the threat, the Defense Forces need additional human resources and additional weapons, as well as improved decision-making – delegating the right to make operational decisions to a lower level of command. Without this, the risk of gradually weakening the defense and losing control of the city increases significantly.
This opinion was expressed in an exclusive interview with OBOZ.UA by former employee of the Security Service of Ukraine Ivan Stupak .
– The situation near Kupyansk is already difficult. Enemy DRGs are being recorded in the city , 2-3 people each. They dress in civilian clothes and try to gain a foothold in residential buildings. In your opinion, what are such DRGs capable of? We remember that the enemy has already tried to reach this city using an underground tunnel, a pipe. How can events develop now? What actions of the enemy pose a very great danger?
– Most likely, the infiltration will be gradual, unhurried, with losses. Fighting has been going on in the northern part of the city for a long time, Russian troops are present there. Therefore, it will obviously not change. The question is about capturing the city. More precisely, capturing everything that used to be called a city, as is usually the case with the Russians. After all, before capturing it, they will destroy it completely.
I don’t want to fantasize here about when it will happen, in a month, in two, because we have already seen the capabilities of the Russians with Pokrovsk – they trampled around the city for a year. As for Kupyansk, it could happen here either quickly or very, very long, but in no less destructive way.
– These small DRGs, 2-3 people, what are they capable of? Why is this tactic chosen?
– Before, when the Russians advanced, they acted like in a military textbook: columns, tanks, a bunch of people on tanks. Then they jump to the ground and start capturing everything there is. But when drones appeared, the situation changed. 2-3 drones simply bring the entire column to its knees.
Therefore, during the assault on Bakhmut, the “Wagner” fighters invented small groups, 10-12 groups of 2-3 people, who literally spread out like cockroaches across the territory and move wherever they need to. The calculation is as follows: a Ukrainian drone may not notice 2-3 people – somewhere in the corn, in the planting. They walk 2, 3, 5, 10 kilometers and tell their people: we have established ourselves in such and such a house, there are three of us here, let the others pull up. The others receive the command to move in this direction.
Yes, out of these 10-15 groups, maybe 2-3 groups will reach, but there are very, very many of them. The calculation is for accumulation, and then from the point where they accumulated, a new leap forward. It is also necessary to understand that there are not many Ukrainian military there. There are literally a few people, observers. So, the enemy’s calculation is this: they simply go into our rear and seize that territory. That’s how they think.
– But they are posing as civilians. How are they carrying weapons then? Do they come in unarmed?
– They disguise themselves as civilians. When they are already in the city itself, when they go, for example, to storm in the direction of our positions, they are really armed, on motorcycles, with all the bells and whistles, as is usually the case. But when they, for example, enter the city of Pokrovsk, there are two options. Either someone is waiting for them there, some kind of “waiters” who help them – here are fried potatoes for you, here is a place to sleep, here are clothes for you – they rest there, gain strength. Then they leave the house where the auntie is helping them, dress in civilian clothes, wander around the city, observe everything that is happening, plant explosives, conduct reconnaissance and periodically return to this auntie.
Or they simply infiltrate the city. They have no one to lean on, but they find abandoned houses, settle there, take whatever clothes they have there, and make a kind of hiding place in the basements. At night or during the day, they come out and wander around the city – supposedly going to the “New Post” or somewhere else and watching everything that is happening.
– So their main task at the first stage is surveillance and reconnaissance?
– Yes, observation. To see how many Ukrainian soldiers there are. Of course, task number two is to kill as many soldiers as possible in this city. We had examples in the city of Pokrovsk, when the Russians ambushed our soldiers. They simply fired two or three volleys from the window of an almost destroyed building in the direction of a Ukrainian car that was driving. The calculation is that someone will be hit, someone will be wounded, and in the best case scenario for them, they will be killed.
In the worst case scenario for them, it’s just disorganization. Imagine, for example, when they say that in the southern district of the city of Pokrovsk, Russian soldiers are already shooting. No one knows how many of them are there, although there are actually only two of them. But it seems that they are already present, and this is a media component. They say that the Russian soldiers are already on the southern outskirts of the city. We understand that when the enemy is defeated morally, he is already half defeated.
– You said that there are few Defense Forces units in Kupyansk. Why? What are the Defense Forces capable of in this situation?
– First, we don’t have enough people compared to the Russians. Second, this really isn’t World War I or even World War II. Trenches, trenches – you can’t be there at all. All the military are hiding in dugouts. They make several corridors in the landings so that drones don’t fly in. Because back in 2023, you could easily be 1.5-2 kilometers from the Russian position. Yes, you had to crouch down so that the sniper wouldn’t fly in. But as of now, even five kilometers are not decisive at all. Drones are everywhere. As soon as the drone sees the target, it starts attacking.
Therefore, the only story is to go underground. The Russians have no options, they have to attack, so they move on the ground. And our military is hiding.
– What needs to happen, in particular in the Defense Forces of Ukraine, to secure the city of Kupyansk from capture?
– Frankly, there is no answer. I understand that your readers need to hear, but everything is so complex here. We need people, we need weapons – a lot of weapons, we need certain changes in the army, for example, to give lower-level commanders the opportunity to make decisions independently. I think you have come across materials many times about our military saying: the “scoop” is coming back again. When decision-making is only centralized, and this slows everything down, terribly slows it down. There is a lot, a lot of everything here. Therefore, to say that there is some “elixir” that will cure everything… There really is none.
Unfortunately, there are simply too many Russians physically, arithmetically. And they are faced with the task of taking the city. Because for many commanders of the Russian army, the New Year is coming soon, literally in a few months, and before the New Year you can receive awards from the Kremlin. They understand perfectly well: the more you give positive things now, until December, the better. You don’t forget that this is a whole procedure. You send people, they storm something, take something, you report, report, but until these reports go through all the instances, until those up there look and are “horrified” by your successes, they say, wow, he deserves a hero’s star! – it takes time.
They understand that they have to do a lot by December, write beautiful reports, submit them to the higher command, and wait for a reward. There are many commanders who expect to be transferred to Moscow, as far from the front as possible, where they have an adjutant and a car, where they can go to restaurants and have a good salary, but not sit in the trenches, for the captured cities, destroyed and annihilated their own military forces.
– So, given what you said, your prediction is that we will lose Kupyansk?
– I’m not saying that we will lose it now, but the situation is constantly deteriorating. From this city, from this location, from Kupyansk, the Ukrainian command has previously withdrawn servicemen to strengthen other areas, in particular in Sumy region. We understand that if we constantly withdraw forces, sooner or later the group will weaken, it will become weaker, simply due to the fact that there are fewer people. This is how, unfortunately, the Russians gain the advantage.
“I’m not saying that we will lose it now, but the situation is constantly deteriorating. From this city, from this location, from Kupyansk, the Ukrainian command has previously withdrawn servicemen to strengthen other areas, in particular in Sumy region. We understand that if we constantly withdraw forces, sooner or later the group will weaken, it will become weaker, simply due to the fact that there are fewer people. This is how, unfortunately, the Russians gain the advantage.”
The West is pumping plenty of hot air, like by saying this is not only Ukraine’s war. And, how it plans to make a fantasy real by wanting to shoot down enemy aerial threats, which it won’t do because the collective leaders lack spines. All the while, Western troops could be in the country to guard the Belarusian border, freeing up thousands of AFU troops.
But, hot air is what Ukraine gets, instead.
That was absolutely terrible to read.
“Unfortunately, there are simply too many Russians physically, arithmetically.”
I have been saying that the defenders are at least 10 divisions short; at the bare minimum.
Why aren’t Ukraine’s “allies” providing them?
Either in the form of their own ground troops, mercs, or contract soldiers. Situation is critical. Help them please someone FFS.