18:10, 06/06/2023

12 min.43

The undermining of the dam at the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station by explosives came as a shock both to Ukrainians and to the entire civilized world. UNIAN analyzed how the biggest man-made disaster of recent decades will affect Ukraine’s ecology and future.

On the night of June 6, the Russian occupiers blew up one of the largest hydrotechnical structures in Europe – the dam of the Kakhovka hydroelectric plant in the Kherson region. This led to a large-scale uncontrolled spill of water from the Kakhovsky Reservoir.

The undermining of the dam threatens Ukraine with an ecological disaster and a shortage of drinking water in part of the southern regions, including the temporarily occupied Crimea, since it is from the Kakhovsky Reservoir that the Kakhovsky Canal, the North Crimean Canal and the Dnipro-Kryvyi Rih Canal begin.

“Russia destroyed the Kakhovskaya dam, causing probably the biggest man-made disaster in Europe in recent decades and putting thousands of civilians at risk. This is a terrible war crime,” emphasized the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Dmytro Kuleba.

80 settlements, including Kherson, were in the flood zone. Tens of thousands of people have become hostages of the “big water”, which is rapidly washing away everything in its path. Local residents are being evacuated from flooded areas of the Kherson region.

According to the state company “Ukrhydroenergo”, as a result of detonation of the engine room from the inside, the Kakhovskaya HPP was completely destroyed. The station cannot be restored.

“According to the preliminary forecast, the reservoir is expected to operate within the next 4 days (that is, during this time, the water from the reservoir will be completely drained – UNIAN). As of 9:00 a.m. on June 6, the water level in the Kakhovsky reservoir is dropping rapidly, and the evacuation of the population from potential flooding areas has begun.” – reported in the company.

This poses an additional threat to the temporarily occupied Zaporizhzhya NPP, which cools nuclear reactors in a pool that is filled from the Kakhovsky Reservoir.

“The destruction of the Kakhovskaya HPP is a terrorist act on the part of Russia, which bears full responsibility for it. The destruction of the HPP threatens with an ecological catastrophe for the South of our country. The world must react. Immediately. But not just with words, but with actions. Russia must immediately withdraw from the ZNPP in order to to avoid a further catastrophe,” said Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal.

The extent of flooding

Back in October of last year, the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, warned that Russian terrorists had mined the dam and units of the Kakhovka hydroelectric plant. Therefore, even then, experts predicted the possible consequences of such a terrorist act.

According to the calculations of the specialists of the NSC “World Data Center for Geoinformatics and Sustainable Development” KPI named after Igor Sikorskyi, the most likely scenario predicted the maximum flooding of certain areas within three to five days, depending on the weather. Dry and warm weather will contribute to a slower flow of water, while rains will accelerate flooding.

Scientists believe that the coast of the right bank of the Dnieper will suffer 8 times less than the left part of the bank, which currently remains under the control of the Russian invaders. The total area that can potentially be covered by water (together with the channel and mouth of the Dnieper) reaches as much as 1,126 square kilometers!

“99 settlements may be completely or partially in the affected zone, of which 40 settlements will experience significant flooding (if the share of the territory of the settlement is under water is more than 45 percent),” – according to the KPI.

Currently, the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine has published a list of territories from which evacuation is carried out after the dam is blown up. This is the city of Kherson, the urban-type settlements of Antonivka, Komyshany, Zymyvnyk, as well as the villages of Mykolaivka, Olhivka, Lviv, Tyaginka, Ponyativka, Ivanivka, Tokarivka, Prydniprovske, Sadove, Priozerne.

“More than 17,000 people are subject to evacuation in the territory under the control of Ukraine, the Ukrainian authorities have already started evacuation. In addition, about 25,000 of our people should be evacuated in the territory not controlled by Ukraine, about whom the so-called occupying “authorities” do not think at all,” the deputy said Prosecutor General of Ukraine Viktoriy Lytvynov.

According to her, the flooded settlements are currently completely uninhabitable.

Environmental problems

According to the OSINT researchers of the InformNapalm project, the environmental and economic consequences of the destruction of the hydroelectric power plant can be compared to the use of tactical nuclear weapons of 5-10 kilotons, because there was a large-scale destruction of socially important objects and contamination of territories.

According to the head of the state-owned company “Ukrhydroenergo” Ihor Syrota, a large-scale oil leak from the turbines of the power plant into the Dnipro River occurred due to the explosion of the hydroelectric power station.

“There will be an environmental disaster because the oil that was in the turbines got into the river. The volume could be from 150 to 450 tons, and we don’t know if the transformers were depressurized or not. We will understand later what happened to the ecology in the lower part of Kherson region,” he said.

Vitaliy Selyk, head of the Kyiv Urban Planning Council, believes that a one-time decrease in water in a huge reservoir will lead to unpredictable ecological consequences: the death of a large number of fish and animals, waterlogging of drained lands and changes in the climate regime of the region.

“On the other hand, the sandy bottom will open, and we will get a new desert with all the climatic consequences: somehow, a decrease in precipitation, dust storms, a rise in temperature in the region. And accordingly, a greater risk of drought in the fields of the center and south of Ukraine,” he noted. .

In addition, the devastation of the Kakhovsky Reservoir could mean a shortage of drinking water in several southern regions of the country.

“We think that the most problematic situation with water will be in the Kherson region”, – assumed the head of “Ukrhydroenergo” Ihor Syrota.

According to him, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal at the meeting instructed to make additional wells in the Kherson and Mykolaiv regions in order to get more fresh water.

Oleksandr Vilkul, head of the Kryvyi Rih Defense Council, said that the city already has a very difficult situation with water supply. And residents began to storm the shops, buying drinking water.

“Ukrhydroenergo” noted that in order to solve this issue, the company will “transfer” water from the Dnipro Cascade to Kryvyi Rih.

By releasing water from the Kakhovsky Reservoir, the occupiers dewatered not only part of mainland Ukraine, but also the occupied Crimea, thereby shooting themselves in the foot. This is not to mention the fact that uncontrolled water waves will wash away the defensive lines of the invaders, along with the invaders themselves. However, when Russia took care of the fate of its citizens… “We don’t abandon our own people”, eh?

Consequences for the power system and nuclear danger

Since almost from the first days of the full-scale war, the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station was occupied by the enemy, the technological connection with it was lost, so since October, the hydroelectric power station did not produce electricity for the Ukrainian power grid.

According to Ukrenergo, the detonation of the station by the Russian occupying forces and the resulting destruction have not affected the stable operation of the power system.

However, the state-owned company “Ukrhydroenergo”, which manages all hydropower plants in the country, will soon have to analyze how the uncontrolled leakage of water from the reservoir will affect the state of the entire Dnipro cascade. In a negative scenario, other Ukrainian hydroelectric power plants may have to reduce production, and therefore there will be less electricity in the country during the summer heat. Considering that the threat of fan power outages was acutely facing the Ukrainians even before this disaster, now there can be no doubt about their introduction.

As for the aggravation of the risk of a nuclear disaster at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, temporarily occupied by the Rashists, experts reassure that it is too early to panic.

“We do not assess this situation as critical due to the fact that the ZNPP is cooled by its own pond, which is separated from the Kakhovka reservoir. Thus, the pond and basin bowls on which the station’s safety system operates keep the water level that was before the explosion of the Kakhovka HPP “, – Petro Kotin, the head of NAEK “Energoatom”, said.

Oleksandr Kharchenko, director of the Energy Research Center, told UNIAN that there will be enough water in the cooling pools for 4-5 weeks.

“We are waiting for the water to drop. At 11-12 o’clock the water level will peak, by tomorrow morning-noon its level will drop, and it will become clear at what level it will settle. Then it will be possible to think about how to restore the supply of water to the cooling pools, and what to establish water supply in Nikopol, Kryvyi Rih and many other cities,” Kharchenko added.

Experts of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) at the Zaporizhzhya NPP are monitoring the situation of a possible radiation hazard. The head of the agency promised to personally visit the occupied nuclear plant in a week.

The reaction of the world

Demolition of the dam in Nova Kakhovka is equivalent to the use of weapons of mass destruction and is a war crime of indiscriminate action, according to the Geneva Convention, which Russia systematically violates in the war against Ukraine. And that’s why this step embarrassed Ukraine’s European partners.

“Shocked by the unprecedented shelling of the Novaya Kakhovka dam. The destruction of civilian infrastructure unequivocally qualifies as a war crime, and we will hold Russia and its proxies accountable,” said the Head of the European Council, Charles Michel.

According to Michel, he will raise this issue at the EU summit in June and offer to increase aid to flooded areas.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg noted that the destruction of the Kakhovskaya dam endangers the lives of thousands of civilians and causes serious damage to the environment.

“This is an outrageous act that once again demonstrates the brutality of war,” he added.

The leaders of the Baltic countries, in turn, issued a joint statement that Russia should be stopped and criminals should be brought to justice.

“The destruction of the big dam is a war crime that directly threatens thousands of people. Russia must answer for it. And Ukraine must win this war to stay safe!” – said the President of Lithuania Gitanas Nauseda.

I would very much like the entire European community to finally realize that Russia is a terrorist state, and move from the traditional “deep concern” to really decisive actions. To this end, Ukraine convenes an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council and calls on the G7 countries and the EU to urgently consider the imposition of sanctions on the Russian missile industry and nuclear industry.

It is obvious that the blowing up of the Kakhovskaya HPP is a sign of the hysterical panic of the Kremlin criminals, who, having disgraced the whole world on the battlefield, are resorting to another act of terror. The Rashists are desperately trying to take away from Ukrainians a warm feeling of hope for a future counteroffensive, but they will not succeed. According to the commander of the United Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Lieutenant General Serhii Naev, the Ukrainian military command anticipated possible provocations by terrorists, including the detonation of the dam. And so Russian evil will be expelled from the Ukrainian land, no matter what!

For Ukraine, the undermining of a huge hydrological structure is another challenge that will certainly make us stronger, and the support of international partners even more determined.

Anna Bredykhina

(C)UNIAN 2023