IGAR TYSHKEVICH22:32, 06/20/24

The Ukrainian media had footage of how the Russian government delegation was “asked” from the negotiation hall in the DPRK . Indeed, for senior officials of the Russian Federation it was a humiliation. But it is not their emotions that are important, but the final document, the text of which is not available. But the directions of the negotiations can be judged precisely by the composition of the government delegation.

So, the following were seated at the negotiating table:

• Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov.

• Deputy Minister of Defense for Military-Technical Support of the RF Armed Forces Alexey Krivushko.

• First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov, who oversees, among other things, the development of the military industry.

• Head of Roscosmos Yuri Borisov.

• Minister of Natural Resources of the Russian Federation Alexander Kozlov.

• Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, who oversees the fuel and energy complex.

• Minister of Transport of the Russian Federation Roman Starovoyt.

• Minister of Health of the Russian Federation Mikhail Murashko.

• Head of Russian Railways Belozerov.

And what is noteworthy is that the Russian Presidential Assistant for Foreign Policy Yuri Ushakov and Foreign Ministry Head Sergei Lavrov were also involved at the same time.

Based on the composition of the delegation, it is not difficult to guess the main vector of discussions. This is military-technical cooperation.

And here the DPRK has something to offer:

– Medium-range ballistic missiles. Naturally, there are not “tens of thousands” of them, as sources from South Korea write, but Kim Jong-un can sell a certain number from his reserves. And make new ones if the Russian Federation pays.

– Ammunition. The DPRK has produced (and can produce) a colossal number of shells for Soviet-style artillery systems. By the way, these products were actively exported in the 80s. Fewer conflicts, and later trade restrictions, reduced sales opportunities in foreign markets. And in the DPRK itself, impressive reserves have arisen, which are expensive to store and even more expensive to dispose of. Selling to Russia is a good option to save money.

– Possibility of using Korean enterprises to produce components for Russian armored vehicles. As well as the modernization of samples that are in storage in Russia. In the end, the North Korean modernization of the T-72 Pokphunho is not much inferior in its characteristics to the Russian T-90.

The above explains the presence of Belousov, Krivushko, Manturov and Borisov in the delegation.

But the question arises: what were the Minister of Natural Resources of the Russian Federation and Deputy Prime Minister Novak doing there? And here it is worth carefully assessing the mineral reserves in the DPRK. There are reserves of zinc, tungsten, nickel, and magnesite that have been explored since the period of cooperation with the USSR. The Pukchang aluminum smelter, launched in 1984, is worth mentioning separately. All this, in conditions of war, is necessary for the Russian Federation.

But North Korea needs oil. Previously, raw materials for the two refineries built came from the Russian Federation and China. Under sanctions, both of its suppliers reduced sales volumes significantly in the late 90s. But Putin has already spoken about the “injustice” of sanctions pressure. This means that oil will flow. Especially against the backdrop of the difficulties of selling in other directions.

Naturally, such a sharp expansion of cooperation requires working logistics. Therefore, the delegation included the Minister of Transport of the Russian Federation and the head of Russian Railways.

The mentioned points will most likely be in the contract. But one more feature worth mentioning is the title of the document. The “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” agreement, by its name, is more typical of Chinese, but not Russian, diplomacy.

And here the presence of both Lavrov and Ushakov in the delegation, as well as the next point of the visit – Vietnam, attracts attention.

The latter is interesting, because against the backdrop of Washington’s conflict with the “Chinese communists,” their “Vietnamese communism” looks more attractive to the American elites. That is, the two states today are largely competitors in several areas at once. In addition, Vietnam may become an important jurisdiction for organizing additional flows of “parallel imports” into the Russian Federation.

Therefore, to draw a line under this logical sequence, we can assume that after Putin’s visit to China ended in nothing, the Russian authorities decided to show their ability to “conduct affairs independently” in a zone that Beijing perceives as a zone of its unconditional dominance. And at the same time, solve for yourself the issues of supplying goods and technologies that were expected, but never received from Chinese partners.

Igar Tyshkevich, political analyst at the Ukrainian Institute for the Future

(C)UNIAN 2024