Aug 16, 2024

For ten days, the Ukrainian army has been advancing rapidly in the Kursk region, seizing more than 440 square miles of Russian territory and some 82 settlements. Up to 200,000 Russians have fled the affected areas, and Kyiv has formed its first military commandant’s office in the captured territories. Led by a general, it will enforce order and provide humanitarian aid to those who remain in their homes. Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin seems to be fixated on capturing the Donbas region rather than properly defending Russian land.

The war in Ukraine has shown how tough it is to reclaim lost territories. The longer you wait, the deeper the enemy digs in. While Ukrainian troops push further into Russia, Putin’s most battle-hardened troops are busy capturing the Donetsk region. In the past week, they’ve taken four Ukrainian settlements and are now just six miles from Pokrovsk, a city with a pre-war population of 60,000, and three miles from Myrnohrad, where 20,000 residents remain. Local authorities have urged residents to evacuate the areas, warning that the situation will worsen. Ukrainian troops, they said, are falling back to ‘fortified, more advantageous positions’. Kyiv pulled elite units from this direction to make the Kursk offensive happen – and Putin is taking advantage of the weakened defences.

In the Kursk region, Moscow relies on disorganised conscripts and Chechen special service units led by Ramzan Kadyrov. Many have surrendered without resistance: just yesterday, 102 Russian and Chechen soldiers were captured. Distressed Russian mothers published a petition calling on Putin to remove conscripts from the area, saying their sons have no battle experience and no weapons.

The Kremlin is reportedly moving ‘several thousand’ troops from the stagnant front in Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhya region to Kursk, with additional soldiers coming from Kaliningrad on the Baltic sea. But these reinforcements may not be enough. Ukrainian soldiers continue to breach the border from multiple points, stretching Russian resources. The Kursk region alone shares a 152-mile border with Ukraine. Russia’s Belgorod region is also under attack.

Putin might consider mass conscription and risk the political stability of his regime. Bloomberg sources suggest that if this form of mobilisation occurs, it will be framed as a ‘rotation’ to give soldiers on the front lines a break from the fighting. Even if the enlistment started today, Russia would spend weeks training new recruits, during which Ukrainian forces will fortify their gains.

The Kremlin believes the invasion of Kursk will be short-lived. Aleksey Dyumin, who was a key general in the seizure of Crimea in 2014, has been entrusted with reclaiming the region. There is no doubt that Russia has the military power to do so – but only by draining resources from critical fronts and easing the pressure on Ukrainian brigades fighting there. Now Putin must choose: should he commit to defending Russia’s recognised borders or fight to gain more Ukrainian territories? This past week has shown he cannot do both.

Quote of the week

‘We see how Russia really moves in the times of [Vladimir] Putin: 24 years ago, there was the Kursk disaster – the symbolic beginning of his rule; and now we can see what the end for him is. And it is also Kursk. The disaster of his war.’

– Volodymyr Zelensky refers to the sinking of Russia’s Kursk nuclear submarine in 2000, three months after Putin first took office.

Portrait of the week in Ukraine

• Ukrainian troops have reportedly destroyed a bridge across the Seim River in the Kursk region. The Russian supply line has been cut off, allowing Ukraine to isolate the Glushkovo district.
• Ukrainian forces have taken control of 82 Russian settlements in the Kursk region, according to the Ukrainian army chief.
• Germany has issued an arrest warrant for a Ukrainian diver in connection to the Nord Stream pipeline bombings in 2022.
• Some 102 Russian and Chechen soldiers were captured as prisoners of war in the Kursk region yesterday.
• Residents have been asked to evacuate from Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad in the Donetsk region as Russian forces approach the cities.
• Ukrainian drones hit four Russian air bases on Wednesday night, the largest such attack in the war.
• British Challenger 2 tanks have reportedly been used during Ukraine’s cross-border incursion into Russia, but London will not allow the use of British Storm Shadow long-range missiles in Russia’s Kursk region.
• Ukraine’s deputy energy minister has been arrested on corruption charges for taking a half-million-dollar bribe.
• A 16-hour curfew has been imposed in 201 settlements in the Kharkiv region to keep residents safe from hostilities.
• The Kyiv School of Economics has launched a master’s degree to train drone development engineers.
• Kyiv and Moscow plan to keep gas flowing into Europe, despite Ukrainian troops capturing the main gas station in the Russian town of Sudzha.
• Two top enlistment officials in Kyiv have been detained over a suspected corruption scheme that allowed men to evade draft laws.
• A Ukrainian man has been found dead in Germany in a suspected murder. He is the eighth reported Ukrainian victim in Germany this year.