Yuri Kobzar21:23, 10.10.25

After three years of constant attacks on the Ukrainian energy sector, Russia has still not succeeded in plunging Ukraine into darkness.

In September, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy hinted that Ukraine would respond in kind to Russian strikes on the Ukrainian energy sector . However, in practice, a symmetrical response could be a bad idea, according to the military analysis portal Defense Express .

First, analysts suggest considering the technical feasibility of causing a blackout somewhere in Russia. They note that the current power outages in several Ukrainian regions are not so much a consequence of today’s missile strike, but rather of the systematic shelling of the Ukrainian energy sector that Russia has been carrying out since October 2022.

“It’s entirely possible to imagine how many hundreds of cruise and ballistic missiles, as well as thousands of long-range drones, the Russians spent on this over three years. Although it’s unlikely they’ll be able to calculate it precisely,” experts note.

From this, analysts deduce the second aspect of the problem: how many resources will Ukraine have to spend to organize a blackout in Russia?

“We must always remember that war is a confrontation of resources, and usually the winner is the one who either has more of them or manages the lesser ones better,” the publication says.Read also:

Experts note that Russia has sufficient missiles to systematically target Ukrainian energy infrastructure, including gas production, as well as defense facilities. Ukraine, meanwhile, with significantly fewer resources, has focused on targeting Russian oil refineries, as they can be effectively disabled by inexpensive drones with small warheads. However, the impact of strikes on oil refineries will only be significant if the attacks are sustained, as the Russians are attempting to repair the plants.

“And now a dilemma arises: divide the existing and obviously limited resource of long-range weapons and redirect some of it to another category of targets. Or continue to strike where the enemy hurts – to exploit success. This is precisely why decisions on the distribution of long-range weapons must be made with a cool head. And, as the saying goes, revenge is best eaten cold,” writes Defense Express.

Analysts note that this dilemma would be easier to resolve if Ukraine acquired additional long-range weapons, such as American Tomahawks or a large number of its own missiles.

Will there be a blackout in Moscow?

As UNIAN reported, in September, President Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine would no longer sit silently in the dark after Russian strikes on its energy sector. Specifically, he directly warned that a blackout in Kyiv could trigger a blackout in Moscow .

After that, the Russians carried out several massive attacks on Ukraine, which resulted in two blackouts in Belgorod .

Today, when asked directly by journalists whether there would be a blackout in Moscow, Zelenskyy avoided a direct answer , saying only that the enemy must be answered.

(c)UNIAN 2025