Mar 14, 2025
On August 24th, 2024, Ukrainian forces became the first nation to occupy Russian territory since WW2. The attack was a raid in force into Kursk oblast. The attack was proposed as a distraction to divert Russian forces away from Donbas where attritional tactics of Russian infantry was wearing down Ukrainian defences.
The attack came as a complete surprise to Russian commanders. The raid developed into the occupation of a significant slice of Russian territory and the UAF had sufficient time to send in more troops and prepare defences. Even then the move was considered temporary. However, holding the ground fixed as many as 30,000 Russian troops in situ for six months so the mission was a success. Russian advances elsewhere were halted and, in a few cases, reversed. Although the small gains in Kursk had no great strategic value it had great political importance. It was a humiliation to Putin who was determined to recover it.
Ukraine was able to maintain the Kursk occupation because of high quality US intelligence which could provide real time information about Russian troop movements and artillery actions. This vital intelligence pinned the Russians down. The eyes in the skies could see every move and halt it almost instantly. For Russia to advance they needed to blind Ukraine.
In February 2025 there was an increase of Russian forces up to an estimate of 50,000 in Kursk with orders to recover the Russian lands. A counter offensive was planned.
Russia built up forces in Kursk.
Russia needed Ukraine to go blind.
On 28th February 2025. Trump manufactured a public disagreement with President Zelensky.
Between 3rd and 5th March, using the disagreement as justification, Trump cut off supplies and intelligence to Ukraine.
On 6th March Russian forces attacked and recovered large parts of Kursk forcing Ukraine to make a tactical withdrawal.
The smoking gun.
On 27th February 2025, before Trump’s announcement, a Russian General in Kursk revealed to one of his colonels his offensive was waiting for Ukrainian surveillance to go down. The colonel revealed this to his wife, his wife told her best friend who told my source in Eastern Europe.
The weakness in this information is the timeline, but if it is to be believed, Russia knew Trump would shut down intelligence cover before Trump’s edict on 3rd March.
Is the timeline correct?
Can the order be corroborated?
Did Trump collaborate with Russia for the recovery of Kursk oblast?
Was this a deliberate action designed to increase pressure on Zelensky to agree to US ceasefire proposals?
The source is genuine, but the people in the communication chain risk losing their lives if their names became known.
This is not enough to convict, but it is enough to make us watch carefully and ask more questions. It is vital Ukraine and Europe know who they can trust.
Slava Ukraini!
Who Dares Shares
Robin Horsfall / Substack
Concerning the “encirclement”, Euromaidan, War In Ukraine, has just posted :
“President Trump tweeted out russian propaganda today worth addressing.
The fiction that Ukrainian troops are “encircled” and at the mercy of Putin is completely divorced from reality, and appears to be put out with the goal of making Putin appear benevolent. Following russian propaganda the last few days, they’ve described a ‘massacre’ and ‘tens of thousands of POWs’ captured in Kursk due to ‘encirclement’. Now that no evidence of this has materialized, and Ukrainian forces have pulled back in a generally organized fashion while continuing to fight, Russia is trying to reframe the situation as a “goodwill gesture”
George Barros of the Institute for the Study of War was one of many refuting Trump’s intel: “Available evidence from the battlefield does not indicate any Russian encirclements of Ukrainian forces at scale, and certainly not by the thousands.”
As seen on the provided map, the forward lines of control are currently fairly parallel.
Russians, however, have been facing encirclement in Toretsk and the Pokrovsk area, but I’ll write about that later ;)”
– Mat