Putin gambled that the West would lose its nerve, and Ukraine would always be held on a short leash by its friends. That leash has snapped
The US president told Zelensky he had no cards. It turns out Putin is the one holding nothing Credit: Anna Moneymaker
Sir Bill Browder
Published 29 June 2026
Trump never meant to help Ukraine win. But he may have done it anyway.
By stripping away America’s grip over Kyiv, the president handed Ukraine the freedom to take the war to Russia.
During the presidential campaign, Donald Trump promised again and again that he would end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours. Of course he didn’t. We are now more than 1,580 days into this war and it still rages. But here is the irony. Trump’s own actions, none of them meant to help Ukraine, may have brought the end of this war closer than anything that came before.
Go back to Joe Biden. He promised that America would stand with Ukraine “for as long as it takes”, and he sent more than $66bn in military aid. That was welcome. But it came with a crippling condition. In return for American weapons, Washington demanded that Ukraine do nothing to “escalate”. The Biden administration had swallowed Putin’s nuclear sabre-rattling whole, and it forced an impossible position on Kyiv.
In practice it meant Ukraine could only strike Russian forces once they had crossed into Ukraine. Think about how absurd that was. Russia could mass its troops on the border in complete safety. Ukraine had to wait until those troops invaded before it was allowed to fire back. So the war dragged on. Russia took staggering losses, and still time was on its side.
Then Trump arrived. One of his first moves was to choke off American money and weapons. He demanded that Ukraine pay America back for Biden’s aid through a one-sided minerals deal. And he humiliated Volodymyr Zelensky in front of the world in that Oval Office meeting, telling him, “You don’t have any cards.”
It was demoralising for Ukraine and for everyone who wants Russia to lose. But it opened a door. Once Washington no longer bankrolled Ukraine, Washington could no longer give Ukraine orders. The leash was off. The United States could no longer demand that Ukraine spare targets inside Russia. That single change has altered the course of the war.
Once Washington no longer bankrolled Ukraine, it could no longer give Ukraine orders Credit: ISABEL INFANTES
For months now, Ukraine has used its own drones and missiles to take apart Russia’s oil refining and export industry. We wake up to images of refineries on fire across Russia. When Putin opened his flagship economic forum in St Petersburg in June, the so-called “Russian Davos”, it began with a Ukrainian strike on the city’s oil terminal and black smoke hanging over the skyline. A warship burned in the harbour. His guests arrived to the sight of his war coming home.
The damage is real. At times these strikes have knocked out close to a quarter of Russia’s refining capacity. In late May, Russian refining fell to its lowest level in two decades. Dozens of regions have brought in fuel rationing. There are queues at petrol stations, and in Crimea the pumps have stopped serving ordinary drivers. An oil and gas superpower can no longer supply its own people with petrol. That is remarkable. While Trump and Europe dither over oil sanctions, Zelensky has imposed his own, one burning refinery at a time.
Ukraine is hitting weapons plants and military targets too, and it is strangling the supply lines into occupied Crimea in ways we could not have imagined a year ago. Trump told Zelensky he had no cards. It turns out Putin is the one holding nothing.
This is no moment to sit back and applaud. It is the moment to press harder. The West should help Ukraine finish the job.
That means more weapons. It means more air defence, so that Russia’s inevitable retaliation against Ukrainian cities is far less deadly. It means we finally confiscate Russia’s roughly $300bn in frozen central bank reserves, most of it sitting in Europe, and hand it to Ukraine to fund the fight. More than four years on, that money is still only frozen, not seized. And it means secondary sanctions on the refineries in India, China and Turkey that keep buying Russian oil, so that Putin’s war machine is starved of cash and grinds to a halt.
I have spent more than a decade as one of Putin’s most determined opponents. I know how he reads weakness, and I know how he reads strength. He gambled that the West would lose its nerve, and that Ukraine would always be held on a short leash by its own friends. For once, that leash has snapped.
Our job now is to make sure it stays off.
Sir William Browder KCMG is an American-born British financier who formerly headed the largest foreign investment fund in Russia. In 2005 he was declared a threat to Russian national security and deported to the UK
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/06/29/despite-best-efforts-trump-may-have-won-war-for-kyiv/
US Ukraine policy before and since the start of the putler era has been disastrous. The murderous bastard has had the luck of the devil.
We had the Clinton con-job with Budapest, which even he has apologized for; although nowhere near enough and without any attempt by his successors to correct the evil it caused.
Bush 2 was mesmerized by the rat nazi : “I have looked into his eyes ….”
I wonder what his reply was when putler said : “Ukraine is not a real country George.”
The statement is on the record, the reply isn’t. I’m willing to bet that there was no pushback.
Then we had a Obama; from a crypto-communist background and a borderline tankie.
Less than useless.
Then we had Krasnov, who behaved exactly as a Kremlin asset would be expected to behave.
Then Biden, who formulated a risk-averse “with you as long as it takes” strategy.
It was Boris who stated “Putin must fail” and sent the NLAWS that won the battle of Kyiv. But unfortunately he didn’t promote a NFZ and was dragged into Biden’s strategy.
The return of Krasnov was a shocking gloves off moment.
To quote The Telegraph’s magisterial Charles Moore :
“The scene in the Oval Office in February last year, in which the president and vice-president of the United States publicly bullied President Zelensky was the most degrading moment in Western diplomacy since 1945. The withdrawal of American aid has unnecessarily lost many lives and prolonged the conflict.”
Krasnov’s hatred of Zel, hatred of Ukraine and sick fascination with the child-murdering nazi putler is Ukraine’s worst nightmare.
The man is a depraved geriatric monster.
I will post some readers’ responses to Sir Bill’s article.
“This is no moment to sit back and applaud. It is the moment to press harder. The West should help Ukraine finish the job.”
Amen.
We had three miserable presidents in a row; one of them got to play president twice, ultimately turning our once great nation into a stinking banana republic.
Despite his military aid and sanctions on mafia land, we must never forget Biden’s deep-seated cowardice. It was not a well-thought out strategy. It was pure weakness reacting to punches in the face.
Comment from :
Ken Platt
Trump told Zelensky he had no cards, Zelensky didn’t tell Trump he had a couple of aces up his sleeve and boy is he using them, Trump when he became the President for the second time wanted to change the name of the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of the America, I would suggest Trump should consider changing the name of the United States of America, to the United States of Ass H……s because that is what is running this once great Country today.
Jennifer Lord
Trump has prolonged this war by offering hope to Putin, even a red carpet visit and a strategy document that identified Russia as a PARTNER.
Trevor Smallwood
Reply to Jennifer Lord
That red carpet visit will take some getting over.
The only positive is that it wasn’t Washington DC.
Michael Johnson
Good article, Putin is starting to look like a cornered rat, but a corned rat with nuclear weapons, so everyone needs to be careful.
Hairy Plotter
“In a war that should have been over in one week but wasn’t” tRump states angrily. Certainly he thought he could end this war in 24 hrs, By publicly, Intentionally demeaning President Zelensky at oval office,”You Don’t Have Any Cards”!. Demanding Starlink be turned off as ‘motivation’ to sign Hideous Minerals “deal”, etc,etc.
Outstanding Article, Thank You Author.
Jon Carmi
Wonderful analysis. However sadly the West continues to be led by cowards, and our own Starmer is foremost amongst them.
Having said that, I’m lost for admiration how the Ukrainians have built up a world-class drone manufacturing sector from nothing and that is now determining the course of the war. We of course should be doing far more to help in terms of money, materials and other types of weapons and ammunition.
Richard Starks
And who will be selling goods to Russia when it’s all over? Donald if he is still President.
Patrick Schrabauer
Biden effectively kept Ukraine on a leash when it could have been imposing long range sanctions with Western weapons years ago, potentially saving thousands of lives.
Trump was worse, of course. A surrender posture, a begging bowl for any immoral offer from Putin, the same instinct that would gladly pay Iran to behave.
But that betrayal also changed the equation. It freed Ukraine just as Kyiv had built its own drone and missile arsena, and now Ukraine is going deep, bringing the war home to Russia until Russia finds its way home too. Back behind Ukraine’s and Russia’s “inviolable” 1991 borders.
Restore them today, Putin. If you do not pressure into Europe, the West will not pressure Russia, just as you recently claimed on stage.
Slava Ukraini. Coherent, brave, brilliant work, Ukraine.
Charlie Wimbledon
Keep turning the screw!
No let up until Russia is humiliated in defeat.
Deputy Dawg
The only part I disagree with is that Trump and JD Vance only humiliated themselves and showed the world exactly what they were. It garnered support for Ukraine and embarrassed America on the global stage. Slava Ukraine.
Jon Carmi
Reply to Deputy Dawg – view message
Trump and Vance are incapable of being embarrassed. When you’re as ignorant as them, you simply don’t realise the extent to which you’re behaving like schmocks.
Barry Betteridge
Brings back memory of Trump’s bullying when Zelensky visited the White house and was received in the Oval office. Loud Trump -his cronies -while American media representatives plus TV cameras recording for prosperity crowded round the armchairs. Imagine that you are almost begging for military support-be it dollars or equipment, cap in hand already indebted to America for aid to defend Ukraine. Gratefulness and attire was highlighted and this man appeared a lone desperate figure. Answer the headmaster back and lose donations or just lose face. To his utmost credit he kept his head and now since has led his country into a credible position and Trump-shown his true colours-the dollar is trumps-metaphorically speaking. How long will Putin and Trump continue their crazy policies-surely the World has had enough.
“That red carpet visit will take some getting over.”
I will never get over that. I would add this to the many other charges against him if he should ever see the inside of a courtroom. Trump is a fetid, slimy traitor.