16.09.2023
The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue their counter-offensive in the Bakhmut direction. The settlement of Andreevka was liberated; Ukrainian soldiers also achieved success in the Kleshchievka area, which worsens the position of the occupation forces in the Bakhmut area.
Also, the defenders are crossing the Dnieper in the Kherson region, and the occupiers probably do not have enough forces in this direction to hold back the Ukrainians if they launch a serious offensive. This is discussed in a new analysis from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Citing statements from the Ukrainian General Staff and other officials, ISW analysts stated that on September 14, Ukrainian soldiers liberated Andreevka, 10 km from Bakhmut, and the next day, September 15, achieved “unspecified partial success” in the Kleshchievka area (7 km to southwest of Bakhmut).
At the same time, the 3rd separate assault brigade, whose soldiers drove the invaders out of Andreevka, announced the complete defeat of the units of the 72nd separate motorized rifle brigade of the Russian Armed Forces located there after the encirclement of the settlement.
“Units of the 72nd Brigade previously suffered heavy losses during localized Ukrainian counterattacks in the Bakhmut area in May 2023 and were likely completely degraded,” the ISW article noted.
Fighting in the Bakhmut direction continues. At the same time, as stated in the 3rd Brigade, the liberation of Andreevka opens up opportunities for a breakthrough on the southern flank of Bakhmut.
At the same time, among Russian “military correspondents” the events around Andreevka caused “confusion and vacillation.” Many Russian sources, as stated in ISW, either completely denied the liberation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces of this settlement, or consoled themselves and their audiences with the fact that due to the complete destruction of Andreevka, control over the settlement is a tactically insignificant achievement for Ukraine, and Russia, they say, controls the heights to the east from this village.
However, some Russian “military correspondents” could not hide their alarm over the news from Andreevka.
“Some Russian bloggers acknowledged that the tactical situation of Russian troops south of Bakhmut was deteriorating and expressed concern that Ukrainian forces could pose a threat to the Russian group in Bakhmut,” ISW writes.
There is no unity among Russian “military officers” regarding the situation in Kleshchievka. While most of them claim that the settlement is controlled by Russian troops, one of the “military correspondents” said that Ukrainian forces have driven the invaders out of Kleshchievka and are trying to gain a foothold in the settlement.
Another military blogger also claimed that Ukrainian soldiers attempted to enter Bakhmut itself from the southwest – unsuccessfully, he said.
“Russian troops counterattacked in the Bakhmut area, but did not achieve any confirmed successes on September 15. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian troops continue unsuccessful attempts to break through Ukrainian defenses in the Bogdanovka area (7 km northwest of Bakhmut) and are trying to recover lost positions near Yagidny (2 km north of Bakhmut).
Also, the General Staff of Ukraine reported that Ukrainian troops continue offensive operations in the west of the Zaporozhye region and inflict significant losses on Russian manpower and equipment in the Verbovo area (18 km southeast of Orekhov).
The Kherson region worries Russians no less than the Bakhmut direction. Some Russian “military correspondents” complained that the Ukrainian military crossed the Dnieper on September 14 and 15. They are also concerned about the increased activity of the Ukrainian Defense Forces on the islands in the Dnieper delta in the Antonovsky Bridge area: Ukrainian soldiers, the “military correspondents” from the Russian Federation are indignant, are preparing positions for a future offensive in the occupied part of the Kherson region.
And ISW analysts state: Russians in the Kherson region really have grounds for concern. The occupiers on the left bank experienced a shortage of manpower and a “starvation of shells.”
“Russian forces likely do not have the manpower needed to defend against a significant Ukrainian attack on this sector of the front, given that the Russian command has transferred several units from the Kherson region to the Zaporizhzhia region. One Russian military blogger admitted that Russian forces are not enough ability to conduct their own significant river crossing operations in the area, in particular due to the lack of shells for artillery training,” the analysts noted.
Let us recall that earlier ISW analysts stated that the occupiers had big problems. They are eloquently evidenced by the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ strike on the Triumph air defense system near Yevpatoriya . This is not the first time that the Russian air defense system has been destroyed in Crimea, confirming that systematic tactical failures in air defense are occurring on the peninsula.
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“Also, the defenders are crossing the Dnieper in the Kherson region, and the occupiers probably do not have enough forces in this direction to hold back the Ukrainians if they launch a serious offensive. This is discussed in a new analysis from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).”
We haven’t heard much of anything from the bridgehead by the Antonovsky bridge. Is the AFU quietly increasing troop strength there? It would be very nice to roaches getting wasted in this area, too.