Russia’s fortress must fall.

ROBIN HORSFALL

OCT 22

When Russia annexed Ukrainian Crimea in 2014, Putin populated it with 100,000 ethnic Russians, completed the Kerch Bridge in 2018, linking Russia to Crimea, and placed it all under the protection of the Black Sea Fleet and the Russian army. Until Putin attempted to take the rest of Ukraine in 2022 this annexation seemed secure. Today. Fortress Crimea is under siege and is about to fall.

Ukraine has avoided costly, tactical assaults by land or sea and concentrated its early efforts on depleting Russian air defences. Ukrainian drone and missile technology systematically destroyed Russia’s layered air defences, removing radar, missile launchers, and command centres. At the same time marine drones sank one third of the Russian Black Sea Fleet; forced them to flee Sevastopol and withdraw to Novorossiysk on the Russian mainland. Many of the ships sunk were landing craft capable of providing stores and military ordinance by sea.

This year large gaps began to appear in Crimean air defences; Ukraine achieved air superiority and began to attack Crimea’s energy infrastructure. First a fuel and ammunition train on the Melitopol/Crimea railway which approaches through Zaporizhzhia was destroyed. The destroyed train could not be removed from the line because the approached were subject to drone reconnaissance and artillery attacks. Any recovery plant was hit as soon as it moved. The line was one of five routes for Crimean resupply. The second was a road which again entered Crimea from the north. All it took to close this road was a HIMAR strike on a single bridge. The third route by sea was already closed, it was impossible for ships to dock in Sevastopol, Kerch Bridge was sufficiently damaged to only allow vehicles of less than five tons to cross. Finally, the Crimea/Russia ferry route was closed after the ferries were sunk. Air travel is impossible and cannot, even in the best circumstances, supply sufficient resources to supply an army.

After reducing Russia’s air defences and logistical supply routes, Ukraine began to hit the energy infrastructure. Crimea has no refining facilities and must import all its energy requirements most of which rely on gasolene or diesel.

This month the Gvardeyskoye fuel depot and distribution centre for the whole of Crimea was destroyed by drones. Gvardeyskoye situated in the centre of the peninsula is the main distribution hub for domestic, business, and military requirements. Then Feodosia Oil terminal the only seaborne route of energy supply to Crimea was struck and put out of action.

The effects were immediate. Although Crimea had struggled through the past three years the effects of Ukrainian strikes were directed only at military targets. The civilian population which is predominantly imported ethnic Russians were prepared to tolerate a situation they regarded as ‘difficult.’ Now it is more than difficult and getting worse by the day.

There is no fuel; petrol and diesel have been rationed, the military have requisitioned all diesel, and a black market is taking over supply. Civilians are rationed to buying 30 litres of petrol a day if they wait in a one-kilometre queue. Electricity blackouts have begun to occur daily. Many civilians realising winter is coming, and they might not be able to heat their homes are using their ration of fuel to get back to Russia.

It is believed Kerch Bridge has not been completely closed for two reasons. It continues to fix remaining Russian air defences in situ to protect the bridge, and it provides a convenient escape route for the civilian and military should they choose to use it. Without fuel for a retreat the Russian armed forces they could be abandoned in Crimea.

The next Ukrainian targets will be thermal power plants that supply domestic electricity. This would end people’s ability to survive through the winter. The effects on the whole population will be devastating. If Russia cannot supply relief, Crimea will be forced to appeal for humanitarian aid from the international community. Having observed Putin’s attitude towards the value of human life. He would rather create a humanitarian disaster and blame Ukraine, than allow the population to receive relief.

The people already feel abandoned. Putin has increased FSB and security operations against all signs of civilian resistance. It is only a matter of time until the occupying forces feel the same. If they cannot withdraw. They could adopt a scorched earth policy and raise Crimea to the ground before retiring.

The Russian military cannot defend Crimea without fuel and food. The troops will abandon their posts to obtain food. There are unsubstantiated reports of fuel being requisitioned for generals and bureaucrats with families and girlfriends to get back to Russia.

This strategy from Ukraine is producing a desired victory with no loss of life to Ukraine and minimal loss to Crimean civilians. Ukraine has almost eliminated Russia’s ability to maintain war in Crimea.

In Russia, the same policy and process continues on a larger scale. Ukrainian drones have been continuously attacking oil refineries, military-industrial facilities, railways, and other critical infrastructure.

On October 19, drones struck a gas processing plant in the Orenburg region. A large fire broke out at the facility, and the intake of gas from the Karachaganak field was halted. On Monday, October 20, another fire broke out at the same plant. On October 18, drones attacked the Ulyanovsk oblast, disabling the 500 Kilovolt, Veshkayma electricity substation. Drones attacked the Rostov region on Tuesday, October 21. Residents reported many powerful explosions.

Every step towards winter is another step towards Ukrainian victory. Energy is and always has been the key to this victory. When Russian forces can no longer function in Crimea, Ukraine must develop a new strategy to reoccupy and rebuild its homeland.

Slava Ukraini!

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Robin Horsfall