The peninsula is becoming a death trap for the Kremlin’s forces
3.06.2024 – Translated from Ukrainian via Google and OFP
Receiving US ATACMS ballistic missiles with a range of 300 km means that Ukraine can now lethally hit any target in Russian-occupied Crimea. Russians on the peninsula have nowhere to hide.
This is stated in an article by The Economist. It is noted that for now, due to US restrictions on strikes with American weapons on the territory of the Russian Federation, Ukraine has to fight “with its hands tied,” but an effective campaign in Crimea clearly shows what it could achieve.
As NATO senior logistics adviser Ben Hodges noted, the Ukrainians are systematically making Crimea “unsuitable for Russian troops there.” Defenders have already demonstrated the ability of Storm Shadow and Scalp cruise missiles supplied from Britain and France, as well as their own sophisticated home-built naval drones, to hit Russian warships.
Ukraine is now using a lethal combination of weapons systems and increasingly sophisticated drones to systematically weaken Russian air defenses in Crimea, hit air bases from which Russian interceptors fly, and strike critical logistics and economic facilities. British strategist Lawrence Friedman believes that the focus on disabling Russia’s air defense network could also be part of preparations for the early arrival of the first batches of F-16 fighters from Europe.
General Hodges believes that Russian troops have “nowhere to hide.”
“Thanks to satellite and aerial intelligence provided by NATO allies, their own intimate knowledge of the territory and agents, nothing can move in Crimea without the Ukrainians knowing about it,” he notes.
“With the advent of ATACMS and the improvement of Ukraine’s own unmanned aerial vehicles, every square meter of the peninsula is in range, including time-sensitive targets such as aircraft and equipment convoys moving by road or rail,” the general added.
Hodges is convinced that “the Ukrainians will demolish the Kerch Bridge when they are ready,” but a potentially more difficult task will be the destruction of the new railway line running along the Sea of Azov from Rostov through the southern Ukrainian cities of Mariupol and Berdyansk to Crimea.
Ben Barry of the International Institute for Strategic Studies believes that the first test of the strategic success of the Ukrainian campaign in Crimea may come this summer, when Russian holidaymakers usually head across the Kerch Bridge to the resorts of the peninsula. If they decide not to go, it will be a bad sign for Putin, since Crimea relies heavily on the tourism industry and bookings fell by almost half last year.
“Crimea has gone from being a prestigious project to being a drain on Russian resources,” Barry said.
As OBOZ.UA reported:
– Israeli military observer David Sharp said that with the permission of the United States to hit them with weapons on the territory of the Russian Federation, very great opportunities open up. For example, in the use of American HIMARS, precision projectiles and artillery. This US decision is a significant breakthrough and will push other allies of Ukraine to do the same.
– On the night of May 30, explosions were heard in temporarily occupied Crimea, as a result of which two Russian boats were hit. The target of the attack was vessels of the KS-701 “Tuna” type.
We have only verified information in our Telegram channel OBOZ.UA and Viber. Don’t be fooled by fakes!
Clearly and precisely, that Kerch Bridge has got to go. The sooner this happens, the better for Crimea and Ukraine.
“…but a potentially more difficult task will be the destruction of the new railway line running along the Sea of Azov from Rostov through the southern Ukrainian cities of Mariupol and Berdyansk to Crimea.”
I’m not sure why this should be so. This railway must also rely on bridges, two, to be precise, and destroying one or both will suffice to stop traffic dead in its tracks for weeks. And, those bridges are not built as robust as the Kerch Bridge.
I’m guessing that the reason that occupied Krym is not being pounded to fuck on a daily basis is the need to eke out high value/short supply items like Storm Shadows. If ATACMS are or will be there in game-changing quantities; ie many thousands, then we will see an improvement in Ukrainian fortunes.
The Ukrainians don’t need to pound the crap out of Crimea. They only need to destroy that damned bridge … and a little more.