02 January 2023, 14:00

• Rudolf Bear

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Russian authorities in Crimea and Sevastopol say tourism to the peninsula has fallen by a third but has maintained momentum in 2022, yields have risen thanks to access to water in mainland Ukraine and the economy has grown , and property prices have fallen only temporarily. They urge everyone to be proud of their participation in a special military operation (this is how open armed aggression in Ukraine is called in Russia – KR ) and to unite around the idea of ​​confronting the West to protect the “civilization of the Russian world.” The Crimean authorities consider the captured parts of the territory of the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions to be the “Tauride province” by analogy with the tsarist empire.

Prices are rising, mobilization continues, as is the outflow of people seeking to go abroad. They don’t talk or write about the victims of the war, problems in observance of human rights, the standard of living, its statistical indicators – these are the requirements of military censorship and the level of “increased response” introduced by the President of Russia, which is not mentioned in the legislation.

Krym.Realii talked with Crimeans and experts about the most significant events that took place during the war year in Crimea and Sevastopol and collected predictive opinions on the prospects for the development of the situation on the peninsula next year.

Crimeans do not feel safe: fear and bitterness without prospects

“During this year, I was gradually filled with a sense of fear regarding myself and my family. It has become dangerous to live in Crimea: shortage of goods and services, explosions, tension everywhere. Most of all, I want calmness, peace and an end to hostilities, although I still don’t understand why it was necessary to send Russian troops to Ukraine. Everyone is well aware of the rocket bombings and the large number of wounded and killed there, but they are afraid to admit that they were direct participants in the war,” said Yulia , a 24-year-old housewife from Simferopol.

A white-haired, gray-haired farmer Ayder (68 years old) from the Bakhchisarai region complained about the “disappeared trust in everything and everyone in this life” . “By the will of the Almighty, this year was a good harvest. The middle son was forcibly taken to serve in the army, so far without a contract. The other two had previously left Crimea and outside of Russia. They are trying to exterminate the Crimean Tatars again… I pray for the lives of my children and grandchildren. But don’t break us! Millet! Watan! Kyrym! (People! Motherland Crimea! – in the Crimean Tatar language – KR ),” he added, moving to a whisper.

Ukraine will soon return CrimeaCrimean Nadezhda

A construction worker, Nadezhda (58), from Alushta, is one of the few who openly declared Crimea. The reality is that she is looking forward to the “moment of truth.” “Ukraine will soon return Crimea. Ten years ago it was hard, but I had relatives and friends. Today, under Russia, it is getting harder in Crimea, there are simply no friends and acquaintances, just as there are no prospects…”, she stressed.

(The names of the interlocutors located in the temporarily occupied territories of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol have been changed for security purposes).

Crimean political scientist Yevgenia Goryunova believes that the attacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on military facilities in Crimea and on the bridge crossing over the Kerch Strait, as well as “partial” mobilization, as the main events of the year, demonstrated that Crimea is already a front-line region.

Crimeans do not feel safe, they are sent to warEvgenia Goryunova

“The myth of “reliable protection of Crimea” was destroyed. Crimeans do not feel safe, they are sent to war. Businessmen and ordinary citizens are obliged to finance the mobilization of the mobilized. This does not cause joy among the majority of Crimeans. At the same time, they show themselves not to be patriots of Russia at all, they do not want to die for it or finance this war, ”the expert emphasized in the comments for Krym.Realii .

She believes that in the future, the success of the Ukrainian offensive in the south will activate panic moods in the peninsula, the “come in large numbers” will run away, selling real estate and business, and the Crimean economy will degrade at an accelerated pace.

“Who will go on vacation or do business under rocket attacks and by the trenches on the beaches? The Crimeans will become even more impoverished, but will live in constant fear, because the war will come close or even enter the peninsula,” said Yevgenia Goryunova.

The return of Crimea is possible through military-diplomatic means

Deputy Permanent Representative of the President of Ukraine in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea (2006-2007), Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine to Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina (2010-2017) Oleksandr Levchenko considers the autumn meeting of the parliamentary dimension of the Crimean Platform in Zagreb, Croatia, a landmark event in understanding by Ukraine and the international community of the ways of de-occupation of the Crimean peninsula.

In the understanding of every Ukrainian citizen, the prospect of the development of the situation with Crimea is the physical return of the Crimean peninsulaAlexander Levchenko

“The founding meeting of the Crimean Platform showed that the international community will constantly and carefully keep the issue of returning Crimea to Ukraine on the international agenda. This was one of the reasons for Putin’s attack on Ukraine in order to “solve the issue of Crimea’s ownership forever.” In the understanding of every Ukrainian citizen, the prospect of the development of the situation with Crimea is the physical return of the Crimean peninsula to its rightful owner, the Ukrainian state. This can happen either by military means – the expulsion of Russian troops from the peninsula through the Crimean bridge even without the physical entry of the combat units of the Ukrainian army, or through a political and diplomatic decision regarding the future of Crimea and Sevastopol, ”Alexander Levchenko emphasized in comments for Krym.Realii .

Representative of the Regional Rada of Crimean Ukrainians (KRUK, Kiev) and editor-in-chief of the newspaper “Krimska Svitlytsya” Andrey Shchekun is sure that the most important thing is that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have maximally strengthened the faith of the Ukrainian community in the reality of the liberation of Crimea and thereby created the possibility of a comprehensive, military-diplomatic , de-occupation of the peninsula.

It seems to me that the complete de-occupation of the Crimean peninsula will take place laterAndrey Shchekun

“At the international summit of the Crimean Platform, this change was not included in the final declaration, the version of which dated August 23 last year contains only the diplomatic path for the liberation of Crimea. Everyone is waiting – the liberation of Crimea could be welcome news in 2023. But the enemy still has a mobilization and military potential. More than one test of the strength of the Ukrainian political will is yet to come: how ready are we for the issue of de-occupation and re-integration of the temporarily occupied territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol? These are the only territories where military administrations have not yet been established. It seems to me that the complete de-occupation of the Crimean peninsula will take place later. But there is something that will please us all this time: the fear of collaborators and the aggressor, their flight from Ukrainian soil,” Andriy Shchekun told a correspondent.Crimea. Realities .

Ukraine is fighting, and there is a real chance for the return of CrimeaGayana Yuksel

“The most important event is the blowing up of the Kerch bridge. I hope that this illegal structure, as a symbol of Russian terrorism, will be destroyed in the near future. The second important event for Crimea is the work on the mainland, the development of a strategy for the return of Crimea. And the third is the emergence of a partisan movement in the occupied territories near Crimea. All this indicates that Ukraine is struggling, and there is a real chance for a return. Return to Ukraine and the construction of a new free Crimea with real protection of the rights of Ukrainian citizens and representatives of indigenous peoples – I want to believe in it!” – Gayana Yuksel , a member of the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar people , said in the comments for Krym.Realii .

Crimea – the destroyed logistics center of the Russian army

President of the Center for Global Studies “Strategy XXI” (Kyiv) Mikhail Gonchar named the fire defeat of strategic communications, forces and means of the Russian occupation forces on the territory of the peninsula and in the adjacent maritime zone as significant events of the outgoing year in the context of Crimea.

The task for 2023 is to cut the Crimea-Donbass corridor, “zero out” the use of the Kerch bridge, drive out or finish off the remnants of the Russian Black Sea FleetMikhail Gonchar

“Three key events are the destruction of the cruiser Moskva, the blowing up of the Kerch bridge and the breakthrough of the defense in the bay of Sevastopol by naval drones. The first one has a symbolic meaning from the point of view of the future defeat of Russia: “whoever comes to us with a sword will die from it.” The second is the complication of the enemy’s logistics, the third is especially important – this is a new word in naval affairs. The task for 2023 is to cut the Crimea-Donbass corridor, “nullify” the enemy’s use of the Kerch bridge, drive out or finish off the remnants of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in the bays of Sevastopol, gradually crush the isolated group of Russian occupation forces on the peninsula with high-precision strikes,” Mikhail Gonchar said.

An expert in the field of international law, Professor Boris Babin , among the significant events, named the collapse of the operations of the Russian fleet in the northern part of the Black Sea, the explosion on the Kerch bridge and the crisis in the tactics of using “cannon fodder” in connection with the destruction of the personnel potential of the Russian army units stationed on the peninsula.

We will observe an increase in the aggressor’s logistics crisis, which will affect all areas of the region’s economyBoris Babin

“The result of this was the criminal “mobilization”, which led to the mass migration of Crimeans from the region. In the near future, we will observe an increase in the aggressor’s logistics crisis, which will affect all areas of the region’s economy, sliding into a collapse situation. The Kremlin’s propaganda use of the “tourist potential” of the occupied Crimea will become impossible, and its militarization by Russian invaders will increase. The preparation of the occupiers for the de-occupation of the peninsula by Ukraine will begin, including covert attempts at criminal “evacuation” of valuable property and industrial complexes from the peninsula,” Boris Babin said.

Help from allies and understanding the complexity of the process

Candidate of Sciences, Crimean historian and KRUK representative Andrei Ivanets supported the opinion expressed about the exceptional significance of the destruction of the cruiser Moskva and the beginning of the “cotton series” (periodic explosions – KR ) in Crimea.

“Hlopki” constantly remind the residents of Crimea that the moment of de-occupation is approachingAndrey Ivanets

“No less important was the decommissioning in June by Ukrainian missiles of the drilling platforms of Chernomorneftegaz captured by the occupiers. It was them that the aggressor state used for military purposes and theft on a huge scale of Ukrainian hydrocarbons. The disabling of the platforms made it difficult to supply gas to the occupied Crimea, and also made it possible to soon liberate Zmeiny Island. “Hlopki” constantly reminds the residents of Crimea that the moment of de-occupation is approaching, and signals to the Russian colonists that it is time to get out of the occupied Crimea,” he specified.

Andrei Ivanets said that the information available for analysis “simply screams”: the chance to liberate Crimea in the foreseeable future has become the most real since the start of Russian aggression.

“If the art of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the determination of the Ukrainian authorities and people are backed up by the supply of a sufficient amount of modern weapons, then the south of the country can be liberated from the invaders as early as 2023. Until then, Russia will try to continue using the occupied Crimea as a base for aggression in Ukraine,” the expert added.

There will be a de-occupation of the Crimean peninsula: full or partial. Full-scale reintegration will beginYuri Smelyansky

According to an expert on the issues of temporarily occupied territories and the economy, co-founder of the Black Sea Strategic Research Institute (Kyiv) Yuriy Smelyansky , the UAF strikes against military facilities in Crimea demonstrate Ukraine’s readiness to de-occupy the Crimean peninsula as an integral part of the territory of Ukraine.

“There will be a de-occupation of the Crimean peninsula: full or partial. A full-scale reintegration and restoration of justice will begin – a complex, problematic and very lengthy process,” he predicted.

(C)CRIMEA REALITIES 2023