Stand With Ukraine

Tatiana Goncharko

Feb 2, 2025

The Russian military command is preparing for long-term operations lasting six to nine months, as Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin appears unwilling to end the war against Ukraine and is relying on a “creeping offensive,” according to a report by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Analysts note that since the winter of 2023-2024, Russian forces have been gradually pushing Ukrainian troops from the eastern bank of the Oskil River. However, the offensive on the Kupiansk-Borova-Lyman line was previously deprioritized in favor of other operations in Ukraine.

The report states that the encirclement of Kupyansk is likely to take several months and will require Russian troops to cover 25-30 kilometers, cross the Oskil River, seize multiple settlements, and repel Ukrainian counterattacks.

ISW suggests that Russian military leadership is not focused on speed but rather on sustaining the war until Ukraine suffers a military defeat. Russian forces have spent four months capturing Avdiivka, most of 2024 leveling the front in western Donetsk region, and three years advancing in Donetsk and Luhansk. This slow pace suggests that the Kremlin has no intention of stopping hostilities.

Putin has previously promoted a theory of gradual victory, claiming that Russian troops can continue advancing without a fixed timeline. He has repeatedly dismissed negotiations unless they meet his conditions.

The report explains that slow advance tactics require significant planning, resources, and manpower. They rely on encirclement and the gradual displacement of Ukrainian forces rather than rapid mechanized breakthroughs. However, these operations demand a large number of armored vehicles, artillery, and troops.

Despite this approach, Russian losses in 2024 have been substantial, particularly in tanks and armored vehicles, raising doubts about whether Moscow can sustain its offensive over time. The depletion of Soviet-era equipment reserves is also making it harder to supply the army.

Additionally, Russia’s monthly mobilization rate appears to be equal to or lower than its losses, with some regions failing to meet quotas as more citizens resist conscription.

The ISW concludes that Russia’s ability to maintain a slow offensive without major strategic breakthroughs depends on whether it can replenish manpower and equipment. Otherwise, it will face depletion of its own resources in the medium and long term.

……….

Here is ISW’s full report from yesterday:

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, FEBRUARY 2, 2025

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-2-2025