The defeat of Russia will make possible “a new birth of freedom,” the philosopher is convinced.
Fukuyama gave threats regarding the consequences of the war against Ukraine for the Russian Federation / photo twitter.com/FukuyamaFrancis
American philosopher and political economist Francis Fukuyama predicted the consequences for the Russian Federation after the invasion of Ukraine.
Fukuyama’s 12-point predictions were published by the online magazine American Purpose.
1. The complete defeat of Russia in Ukraine is getting closer. Russia has been let down by planning based on the false assumption that Ukrainians favor Russia and that the Ukrainian army will fall immediately after the invasion. Russian soldiers carried uniforms for the parade in Kyiv instead of additional ammunition and supplies. Now Putin has sent the main part of his forces to this operation – he does not have large reserves that could be used in battle. Russian troops are bogged down under various Ukrainian cities and are suffering from a lack of resources and constant Ukrainian attacks.
2. Their failure could have been sudden and catastrophic rather than gradual in a war of attrition. An army in the fields will reach a breaking point where it can neither get resources nor retreat, and morale will melt. At least this is already happening in the north; in the south, the Russians are doing better, but it will be difficult for them to hold their ground if the factions in the north are defeated.
3. Until then, a diplomatic solution to the conflict is impossible. There is no imaginary compromise that will suit both Russia and Ukraine with the current level of losses.
4. The UN Security Council has once again proved its worthlessness. The only benefit is the General Assembly vote, which helps to identify bad world players and evaders.
5. Both decisions of the Biden administration – not to close the skies over Ukraine and not to transfer Polish MIGs to it – were correct. They kept a cool head in a very emotional moment. It is better that the Ukrainians defeat the Russians on their own, depriving Moscow of the opportunity to justify that they were attacked by NATO, and also avoiding obvious opportunities for escalation. Polish MIGs would not help the Ukrainians much. Much more important is the continuous supply of Javelins, Stingers, TB2, drugs, communications equipment for communications and intelligence sharing. I think Ukrainian forces are already using NATO intelligence outside of Ukraine.
6. Ukraine pays a very high price, it’s true. But most of all, rockets and artillery do the most harm, from which neither the closed sky nor MIGs will help. The only thing that will stop the bloodshed is the defeat of the Russian army in the field.
7. Putin will not survive the defeat of his army. He is supported because he is considered a strong man; what can he offer when he demonstrates incompetence and is stripped of his power of coercion?
8. The invasion took a huge toll on populists around the world who before the attack expressed sympathy for Putin – Matteo Salvini, Jair Bolsonaro, Eric Zemmour, Marine Le Pen, Viktor Orban and, of course, Donald Trump.
9. This war is to a certain extent a good lesson for China. Like Russia, China has been building up ostensibly high-tech military forces over the past decade, but these forces have no real combat experience. Chinese aviation is likely to repeat the sad example of the Russian Air Force, which also has no experience in complex air operations. We can hope that the Chinese leadership will not live in the same illusions as the Russians when they think about a possible attack on Taiwan.
10. We hope that Taiwan will independently understand that it is necessary to prepare for battle, just as the Ukrainians did, and restore conscription. We don’t give up without a fight.
11. Turkish drones “Bayraktar” will be a hit.
12. Russia’s defeat will enable “a new birth of freedom” and turn off our whining about the decline of global democracy. The spirit of 1989 will live on, thanks to a handful of brave Ukrainians.
(C)UNIAN 2022
I vehemently disagree with points 5 and 6. Refusing a NFZ and preventing the Migs to be sent to Ukraine is very far away from “keeping a cool head”. It’s downright idiotic. It goes against the most basic common military sense.
With a NFZ in effect, the Ukrainian air force would gain air superiority. When was air superiority ever a bad thing? Ukraine air force could concentrate its firepower attacking artillery and MRLs. It cannot do this with mafia planes in the skies waiting for them. Furthermore, it could attack mafia supply lines, which are already precarious. The combination of a NFZ and extra Migs could be a game changer and most certainly would save many lives. This is something the senile old fool in the Yellow House doesn’t comprehend and might never do so. He is much too old to learn new tricks.
I agree with most of it too. It seems strange though that he didn’t mention Belarus. This new “union state” allows Putin to stage missiles ten feet from Lithuania and Poland. Did anyone ask them how they feel about Putin taking Belarus?
I don’t think many veterans want to give Ukraine to the russonazis because Ukrainians are the only ones willing to stand up to the monkeys.
Were we to establish a no fly zone, that would have to include the Ukrainians as well as Putin’s goons. We would also need to warn Putin that if he sent any missiles into Ukraine that we track them back to the launch site and crush anything and anyone responsible for the launch, as well as search for any launchers they have and destroy, them whether they were used or not.
Give the Ukrainians that, they will be able to take down Russia’s invasion with a far greater chance if winning outright.