Partial mobilization will probably not affect the battlefield in the next few months.

Russian President Vladimir Putin himself gives orders to generals who are on the battlefield in Ukraine, hinting at an inefficient command structure inside Russia. 

This was reported in a CNN commentary by two sources informed with data from American and Western intelligence.

There are also serious differences between Russian military leaders who are trying to agree on how to focus their efforts to strengthen the defensive lines. 

Despite Russia’s statements about the transfer of reserves to the northeast, Moscow nevertheless chose the south, where the Ukrainian offensive also continues. 

The military leadership of the Russian Federation has already been reshuffled in response to the failure near Kharkov, but, according to the sources of the publication, the command structure has become even more disorderly than it was before. 

Even if Russia manages to follow the forces, it will be limited in its ability to seriously oppose the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

According to Michael Kofman, an expert at the CNA think tank, Russia, given its constant problems with supply lines, communications and morale, is not able to quickly transfer new reserves to the battlefield as part of the mobilization announced by Putin.

“Partial mobilization probably won’t affect the battlefield in the next few months, but it could increase Russia’s ability to endure this war, although it won’t change its outcome,” he said.

Russian failures in planning, communications, and logistics worsened further after the retreat from Kharkov Oblast. 

Mobilization in Russia 

On September 21, Putin  announced a partial mobilization in Russia  – primarily specialists with combat experience numbering  up to 300,000 people .

Moreover, the media draw attention to the fact that the decree of the Russian president, unpublished for the public, may allow the leadership of the Russian Federation  to mobilize up to 1 million people . 

At the same time, Western experts doubt the ability of the Russian Armed Forces to accept, train and provide at least the initially declared number of recruits.

Analysts believe that the  mobilization in Russia  demonstrates the difficult position of the invaders on the battlefield, because it coincided with the military defeat of the RF Armed Forces near Kharkov, and will not interfere with the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the near future.

At the same time, the expert community is inclined to believe that men are the first to be mobilized in the occupied territories of Ukraine, as was the case on the eve of February 24 with ORDLO. 

(C)UNIAN 2022