Kateryna Hirnyk 12:02, 26.07.25 UNIAN
China does not need either Russia’s unconditional victory or its defeat
China does not need Russia’s defeat in the war in Ukraine, but it does not need Vladimir Putin’s unconditional victory either, writes The Hill columnist Alexander J. Motyl. In his opinion, the most profitable thing for China would be an endless, exhausting war that would weaken Russia as much as possible.
According to the expert, contrary to the claims of Chinese diplomats that the United States currently poses the biggest problem for China, in fact the main threat is Russia.
“Yes, China certainly wants to get rid of the US, and so any distraction is a good distraction. But America is not in the neighborhood and is not engaged in a debilitating war. Despite the loud statements of the Trump administration, it has not yet resorted to biting… On the contrary, Russia represents a much more immediate security problem for China, and perhaps even a threat,” he notes.
The expert notes that there are three options for ending the war in Ukraine, but only one of them is beneficial to China.
If Russia wins in Ukraine , Putin will be overconfident and could attack a NATO country or try to annex northern Kazakhstan, which would not benefit China.
He also notes that after the victory, Russia may begin to “flex its muscles” and question its “boundless” friendship with China. And while this friendship will not disappear immediately, it will certainly create a more complicated relationship that will test China’s patience.
If Russia loses in Ukraine , a whole range of extremely destabilizing scenarios could arise, also disadvantageous for China.
“A completely defeated Russia could slide into internal violence, thereby destabilizing Eurasia. Vladimir Putin could be overthrown in a coup, and his regime could collapse. Infighting among the elites is inevitable, and civil war could break out. Non-ethnic Russians could take advantage of the chaos to declare independence, and the Russian Federation could meet its inglorious end. Yes, China could annex large areas of the Russian Far East, but these achievements would be overshadowed by security threats,” he notes.
At the same time, the most advantageous scenario for China is one in which Russia wins but is significantly weakened. A protracted, exhausting war distracts the United States and “unsettles” the West, thereby strengthening China’s influence, he believes.
“As a result, a weak Russia, embroiled in a losing war, will continue to exist as a vassal of Beijing. Such a Russia is ideally suited to China,” emphasizes The Hill columnist.
China and the war in Ukraine
Earlier, EU leaders called on Chinese President Xi Jinping to pressure Russia to end the war against Ukraine.
Meanwhile, Reuters reported that China is secretly supplying Russia with UAV engines disguised as refrigeration equipment. And the Telegraph reported that a Russian drone made entirely of Chinese parts was discovered in Ukraine for the first time .
