19.09.2025

The paradox of modern geopolitics is that the weakness of one player instantly opens up opportunities for another. The United States, under Donald Trump, tried to simultaneously end the war in Ukraine and pursue a tough tariff policy against Europe and China. But both directions have reached a dead end. Trump, who promised to quickly “force Zelensky and Putin to agree,” has not been able to demonstrate any results for more than eight months. His meeting with Vladimir Putin in Anchorage ended in failure: “there is no magic left in the special relationship.” And the tariff wars have only exacerbated the split between the United States and its European allies. What is the statement of French President Emmanuel Macron worth, who frankly stated: “We cannot allow Washington to dictate conditions to Europe.”

In this vacuum, China has become more active. Beijing, which avoids direct participation in the war, is promoting its own platform, “Friends of Peace,” offering an “alternative to American dictatorship.” For China, the war is not only a question of Ukraine, but also an element of the global struggle for influence. Beijing is trying to show that no major problem in the world (including the war in Ukraine) can be solved without its participation.

This week, China’s top diplomat Wang Yi visited Europe and held a series of talks with representatives of several EU countries. The visit had a dual purpose: promoting a “peace plan” for Ukraine and trying to form an anti-crisis trade coalition against Washington. The tour is aimed at improving China’s image in Europe, reducing tensions in relations due to trade disputes, and demonstrating that China seeks to be a “constructive partner” on the international stage. From Ukraine’s perspective, this tour can be used as part of a broader Chinese strategy: to show that the PRC is working on diplomatic channels in Europe, “seeking peace, not war,” although it is obvious that the PRC is using such contacts to promote its “peace initiatives.”

Thus, Beijing gains a double advantage. First, it consolidates the image of a peacemaker against the backdrop of Washington’s impotence. Second, in trade issues, Europe is increasingly balancing between conflict with the United States and the search for new opportunities in cooperation with the PRC. As the Financial Times noted, “China has learned to turn other people’s failures into its own diplomatic assets.” And it is this strategy that is shaping a new geopolitical map today, where Beijing is gradually emerging from the shadows, and Trump’s America is losing allies.

Wang Yi’s tour is a test of Europe’s ability to build its own line between Washington and Beijing. China is offering “peace” in the form of a political compromise, while at the same time pushing the EU towards an economic union against US tariff policy. European capitals, especially Berlin and Paris, are forced to strike a balance: not to completely reject the Chinese initiative, so as not to lose the channel of communication with Beijing, but also not to agree to conditions that are beneficial to Moscow. For the EU, this game has an additional dimension – economic. Access to Chinese markets, rare earths and logistics routes remains critically important, especially against the backdrop of tariff wars with Washington.

About how China is trying to lure Europe and promote its own vision of ending the war in Ukraine against the backdrop of Trump’s pressure and chaotic policy – in the material of OBOZ.UA.

Crazy pressure on “friends”

In August 2025, the European Union and the United States of America concluded a new trade agreement known as the “Agreement on Reciprocal, Fair and Balanced Trade”.

Thus, from August 1, 2025, the US has imposed a general tariff of 15% on most imported goods from the EU. The EU has also pledged to purchase $750 billion in energy resources from the US by 2028, including liquefied natural gas, oil and nuclear products. This will help reduce Europe’s dependence on alternative energy sources. Investments and technology: The EU has promised to invest $600 billion in strategic sectors in the US by 2028. In addition, the EU has pledged to purchase at least $40 billion in American chips for its data centers. In addition to all this, the union has agreed to significantly increase the purchase of military and defense equipment from the US. Most experts point out the disadvantageous nature of the agreement for the EU, and that the bloc will lose a lot if all the points of the document are fulfilled.

However, this did not seem enough to Trump. After exceeding several deadlines that he had set for Vladimir Putin demanding an end to hostilities in Ukraine, Donald Trump decided to increase pressure on Russia through the hands of the Europeans.

Having trolled the Europeans with the phrase: “Europe is my friends, but they buy oil from Russia. Therefore, we cannot expect that we will be the only ones to act with full force,” the US president “proposed a plan,” as he sees it, of course, that is needed to “end the war.”

Main offers:

The EU should ditch Russian oil: For most EU countries, this is not too difficult a task. In 2021, the bloc imported 45% of its natural gas and 27% of its crude oil from Russia. Last year, this share fell to 19% for gas and 3% for oil. In 2024, the EU spent €21.9 billion on Russian fossil fuels, which is about 10% of Russia’s total global export earnings.

Europe must buy more American gas: Analysts say that promise is virtually impossible to keep. Last year, the EU spent 375 billion euros on energy imports, and only 76 billion of that came from the United States. To meet that commitment, the bloc would have to triple its imports from the United States over the next three years and abandon other suppliers such as Norway, which supplies cheaper gas by pipeline.

The EU should impose tariffs on China: as the European media write – “forget about it”. From a political and economic point of view, imposing tariffs against Beijing would be a fatal blow to the EU economy. We know this from the experience of the US, which refused to take this measure.

To try to somehow appease Trump, the EU is preparing sanctions against Chinese companies linked to Russia’s military programs, but whether this will encourage Trump to act harshly against Moscow is an open question.

How Trump is “helping” China

The second term of Donald Trump’s presidency has been a time for China, caught between two fronts: an escalating trade war with the US and increasingly cold relations with the EU over dumping and imbalances. But potential help has come from Washington. Beijing has used the tariff conflict with Trump as leverage to try to bring Europe closer to it. China is demonstrating to the EU that both sides are suffering from US protectionism, including tariffs on cars, steel, aluminium and agricultural products. Beijing is proposing the creation of a “free trade axis” as an alternative to US policy.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry is promoting the message: “We are not a threat, the real threat is Trump’s policies.” The rhetoric of defending globalization and the multipolar world is used, as are appeals to European elites who are traditionally wary of unilateral American actions. China is more actively promising the EU access to cheap energy transition technologies (solar panels, batteries, EVs), positioning itself as an ally in the fight against climate change, while the US is allegedly inhibiting the “green transformation.” This is used as a counterweight to Trump’s tariff policy. Beijing is also promoting the concept of “EU strategic autonomy,” emphasizing that Brussels should determine economic policy itself, independently of Washington. References to Macron and his vision of “a Europe that is not a vassal of the US” are often present in the speeches of Chinese diplomats.

“Neutrality” with Chinese specifics

China’s official rhetoric on another important issue – the war in Ukraine – is based on several theses: the war is a “European crisis with global consequences”, China does not supply weapons to any of the parties, and even controls the export of dual-use goods, including drones. At the same time, China avoids direct criticism of Moscow, and even actively helps dictator Putin economically to continue the war in Ukraine. However, while maintaining contacts with Ukraine, the PRC is trying to promote the image of an “honest peacemaker”.

To bolster its image, Beijing has previously created a “peaceful settlement plan” with Brazil and a number of countries in the Global South, the “Friends of Peace” platform. China is calling on Europe to participate in this format, while promoting the idea of ​​a “balanced and sustainable security architecture” on the continent.

The China-Brazil peace plan includes six key points:

• Direct negotiations between Ukraine and Russia
• Holding an international peace conference with the participation of both sides
• De-escalation, avoidance of new fronts and provocations
• Humanitarian aid, protection of civilians, prisoner exchange
• Preventing nuclear, chemical and biological escalation, ensuring the safety of nuclear facilities
• Stability of global supply chains and collaboration

However, the plan has drawn criticism from Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called it “destructive” and “playing into the Kremlin’s hands” because it does not provide for the mandatory withdrawal of Russian troops and the restoration of territorial integrity. Ukraine was also not consulted in advance on the development of this document, which reduces credibility in the initiative.

Wang Yi’s diplomatic tour: a signal to Europe and a challenge to the US

This week, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is holding a series of meetings with representatives of Poland, Austria, Germany and France, once again promoting the Sino-Brazilian plan for resolving the war in Ukraine. Officially, it is presented as “the only possible path to peace”, formed on the basis of respect for the UN Charter and the territorial integrity of states. At the same time, Beijing is making it clear that the document can be “improved” with the participation of European partners, which allows China to position itself as an open mediator. Especially since the main mediator, US President Donald Trump, seems to simply not know what to do with the war in Ukraine. Foreign Minister Wang Yi stressed during a visit to Europe that China is “ready to help find a balance between the interests of Kyiv and Moscow.”

A separate block of negotiations concerns the economy. China seeks to implement clear political goals: to block the introduction of secondary sanctions against buyers of Russian oil, as well as to offer the EU to create a common front against the US tariff policy. The PRC officially called on the EU to jointly fight Trump’s tariff policy, proposing in return a reduction in the trade imbalance between Beijing and Brussels. And although Western capitals meet such words with suspicion, they are forced to reckon with the fact: when Trump destroys transatlantic unity with tariffs, China presents itself as a “pragmatic mediator.”

For Brussels, this is both an opportunity and a trap. Therefore, positions are divided: Germany is trying to balance so as not to lose the market, France is pushing for tougher anti-Chinese measures, Italy and part of Eastern Europe are focusing on Washington. As a result, China has not yet been able to completely pull the EU to its side, but it has successfully slowed down the radicalization of anti-Chinese policy, especially in the automotive industry and “green” technologies. One way or another, but Trump, by increasing trade pressure on the EU, has actually created an opportunity for China to position itself as an alternative partner: “America is strangling with tariffs, we are an open market and allies in green policy.” So far, the strategy is only partially working, because Europe still perceives China as a systemic competitor.

China plays on the contradictions of the Euro-Atlantic world

Wang Yi’s current visit is important for Chinese policy, as Beijing has its own interests. China traditionally distinguishes its policy towards the US and Europe. We see that Beijing has become more active against the background of the fact that certain steps of the American administration are not fully understood by its European partners. Therefore, China has a chance to demonstrate that it is a stable and reliable partner, that its position towards Europe is unchanged and always positive. If Europe wants to change the rules of trade with China, Beijing is ready to resolve the imbalance in foreign trade. At the same time, the Chinese side calls not to support the US policy of imposing tariffs against China. We know that Trump proposed extremely high tariffs (50–100%) and called on Europeans to join such a policy. This proposal came as a surprise to Europeans – this opinion was expressed in an exclusive comment to OBOZ.UA by the diplomat, Ambassador of Ukraine to Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2010-2017 Oleksandr Levchenko.

According to the diplomat, given the behavior of the current US presidential administration, China calls on Europe to conduct a separate dialogue, avoid blindly joining American initiatives and maintain its own position. It is important for Beijing to prevent Europe from completely switching to the side of the US. The Chinese Foreign Minister demonstrates that Beijing is a reliable partner, ready to negotiate on an equal footing, and not like with Trump, when Europe acts as a junior partner. China is actively taking advantage of the instability of Trump’s policy, recalling examples of US tariff policy towards Canada, Mexico and other countries. Beijing points out that such measures contradict the rules of the World Trade Organization and proposes to conduct separate negotiations with the US and Europe.

“Of course, Trump, for his part, is in a way right when he demands that Europe completely abandon Russian oil and apply sanctions to countries that buy Russian oil (China, India), then the war in Ukraine can end quickly. However, Europe hesitates and not only because of economic risks and dependence on Russian oil (Slovakia, Hungary). The factor of instability of US policy and Donald Trump personally, which undermines confidence in such steps, also means a lot,” says Oleksandr Levchenko.

Another global issue is the peace plan for Ukraine. The Chinese document includes six points: cessation of hostilities, treatment of prisoners of war, nuclear safety, non-admission of the use of chemical or biological weapons, protection of women and children. As Oleksandr Levchenko emphasizes, compared to the previous Chinese plan of 12 points, the main thesis on the territorial integrity of Ukraine, which is important for the Ukrainian side, is missing.

“Last year, Ukraine reacted coolly to the Chinese plan due to the different policy of the American administration and a different context regarding Russia. The situation has changed, because although Trump continues to interfere in the peace settlement processes, this only worsens the situation.

At the same time, the Chinese plan can be tried to be adjusted: for example, to include a clause on the territorial integrity of Ukraine. Especially since Wang Yi stated that the PRC is supposedly ready for Europe to participate in adjusting and supplementing this document. We need to propose and see their reaction, which will tell us everything about the real efforts of the PRC. This could be a step towards a real consideration and incorporation of the positions of the Ukrainian side with the participation of European partners and the PRC. Although, given the policy of the Chinese authorities in recent years, most of all, this could be just a political game. An attempt to once again demonstrate China as a neutral country that seeks exclusively peace. They say, yes, we received Putin in Beijing at the parade as an important guest, but look, now we are trying to stop the war in Ukraine,” Oleksandr Levchenko noted.

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