Kateryna Chornovol00:58, 11.01.26

Trump has repeatedly referred to the neighboring state as the “51st state.”

Canada fears it could become US President Donald Trump’s next “target” following the high-profile operation in Venezuela and recent threats against Greenland, Bloomberg reports .

Some experts aren’t ruling out the possibility of “military coercion” by the United States. However, global security expert Thomas Homer-Dixon emphasized that any attempt at pressure from Washington would be “extremely costly.”

Former Canadian government security and border adviser Wesley Work calls Trump’s actions regarding Venezuela and Greenland “the latest wake-up calls for Canada that underscore the reality that the United States is no longer the country it once was.”

“I think a lot of officials in Ottawa just find it hard to believe that we’re in this situation, no matter what the evidence is,” he said.

Most analysts doubt the US military will launch a military invasion of Canada. However, Trump may resort to damaging the Canadian economy “to satisfy the whims of the president.” It is noted that Trump’s actions in Venezuela have demonstrated his willingness to take adventurous steps to dominate the Western Hemisphere.

The publication emphasizes that the Canadian Armed Forces are unprepared for a more hostile world. Their active and primary reserve forces number less than 100,000 personnel.

It is known that the Canadian government plans to increase the size of the army and invest in weapons, but these measures will only have an effect over time.

There are also economic risks. About 70% of all Canadian exports go to the United States. And the threat of rescinding USMCA (the United States-Mexico-Canada Free Trade Agreement) benefits or the imposition of new tariffs by the Trump administration could hit the country extremely hard. To reduce its dependence on the United States, Canada is trying to diversify its trade, including targeting Asia. 

But Carleton University associate professor Philippe Lagasse believes that the more concessions Canada makes to maintain access to the American market, the greater the risk of a gradual loss of real sovereignty, even if it remains formally intact.

(C)UNIAN 2025