Jonathan Beale
Defence Correspondent
Reporting from Dnipro
Dec 30, 2024
Ukraine is losing the battle on the ground. Many of its soldiers are tired and exhausted after three years of fighting. The question – can the country endure another year of war?
Their forces are still resisting Russian advances in the east. But they’re almost surrounded near the town of Kurakhove – scene to some of the most intense fighting in recent weeks.
The Black Pack, a mortar unit, is trying to prevent their encirclement around Kurakhove. The Russian are closing in on three sides.
We meet the team at a safe house, getting a rest from the fighting. They’re not your average soldiers. They include a vegan chef, a mechanic, a web developer and an artist. A group of friends with non-conformist views. Some call themselves anarchists. They all volunteered to fight.
Surt, their 31-year-old commander, joined the army soon after Russia’s full scale invasion. He tells me at the start he thought the war would last three years. Now, he says, he’s mentally preparing himself for another ten years of fighting.
They all know that Donald Trump wants to bring an end to the war. Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky and Russia’s president have indicated they’re prepared for talks too, but the idea of workable deal seems hard to imagine.
So far, it is just talk about talks.
Surt is not dismissive of Trump’s goal.
“He is quite an ambitious person and I think he will try to do it,” he says. But he worries about the outcome of any negotiations.
“We are realists, we understand there will be no justice for Ukraine – many will have to swallow the fact that their homes are destroyed by rockets and shells, that their loved ones were killed, and this will be hard.”
When I ask him whether he’d prefer to negotiate or to keep on fighting – Surt replies emphatically: “Keep fighting.”
It’s a view reflected by most of the unit. Serhiy, the vegan chef, believes negotiations would just temporarily freeze the war – “and the conflict will return in a year or two.”
He admits the current situation is “not good” for Ukraine. But he too is ready to carry on fighting. Being killed, he says, “is just an occupational hazard.”
Davyd, the artist, thinks Trump is worryingly unpredictable. “He could be either very good or very bad for Ukraine,” he says.
The unit spends a week on the front and the next resting. But even when they’re resting they continue to train, because, they say, it keeps them motivated.
In a freezing field they go through the drills for firing their mortars. The team have recently been joined by Denys, who voluntarily left the safety of his home in Germany.
“I asked myself the question – could I live in a world where Ukraine doesn’t exist?” he says. He reluctantly admits it now appears to be losing, but adds: “If you don’t try then you will most certainly lose. At least I’ll die trying to win instead of just lying down and taking it”.
But, unlike the others, Denys says he thinks Ukraine should at least consider a ceasefire. He thinks Ukraine’s casualties are higher than those officially admitted – more than 400,000 killed and injured. Mobilising more of the population, he believes, wouldn’t solve the problem.
“I just think a lot of the motivated soldiers are either lost or they’re pretty damn exhausted – and so for me it’s not that we want a ceasefire, but we can’t go on for many more years” he says.
Dnipro, Ukraine’s third largest city, reflects that sense of war weariness too. It’s regularly targeted by Russian missiles and drones. The air-raid sirens wail intermittently, day and night. When they’re silent, Ukrainians try to find some sense of normality in these abnormal times – including by going to the theatre.
At an afternoon performance of a humorous play, called The Kaidash Family, there are still reminders of the war – a minute’s silence to remember the fallen, followed by Ukraine’s national anthem.
But some in the audience admit they’re also hoping for a longer-lasting release. Ludmyla tells me “unfortunately there are fewer of us. We’re getting some help, but it’s not enough – that’s why we have to sit down and negotiate.”
Kseniia says: “There’s no easy answer. A lot of our soldiers have been killed. They fought for something – for our territories. But I want the war to end”.
Opinion polls too suggest there’s increasing support for negotiations.
Some of the strongest calls for a ceasefire come from those who’ve been forced to flee the fighting. In a shelter near the theatre, in former student accommodation, a group of four elderly women reminisce about the homes they’ve left behind.
Eighty-seven-year-old Valentyna says they arrived with nothing, but have been provided with shoes, clothes and food. She says they’ve been treated well. “It’s good to be a guest, but its better to be at home.”
Some of the strongest calls for a ceasefire come from those who’ve been forced to flee the fighting. In a shelter near the theatre, in former student accommodation, a group of four elderly women reminisce about the homes they’ve left behind.
Eighty-seven-year-old Valentyna says they arrived with nothing, but have been provided with shoes, clothes and food. She says they’ve been treated well. “It’s good to be a guest, but its better to be at home.”
A very sad article.
In the world that I live in, vegan chefs and artists are tree-hugging lefties who would shit themselves if they had to fight. But in Ukraine, they are made of much sterner stuff. Good luck to them and all the heroes as they resist the scum horde!
Putler is winning not just on the battlefield, but also feeble support from outside is increasing the sense of hopelessness in the minds of ordinary Ukrainians; so much so that polling suggests that the “land for peace” option is back in their minds. The rat nazi is banking on that faction increasing exponentially. He knows the incoming pro-ruZZia US administration is likely to propose something to Zel that is far more putler-friendly than Ukraine-friendly.
But even that may not be enough and may even be too late: the putinaZis are advancing and the defenders still don’t have the firepower to push them back, due to the failure of all Ukraine’s so-called friends to deliver materiel in sufficient quantities and sufficient power.
“the incoming pro-ruZZia US administration”
I just saw an interesting observation:
“Are people still confused by Trump’s threats against Canada, Greenland and Panama? He’s doing it to normalize the idea of territory expansion for his friend and colleague Vladimir Putin. If he can get his cult followers to cheer on the idea of a “proud nation expanding their territory,” he has brainwashed half of America into being more tolerant of Putin’s expansion plans. Hope that clears things up.”
That’s how russia sees it as well. From The Independent:
Kremlin supporters tout Trump takeover threats as aiding Putin’s expansionist goals
By talking of making Canada the 51st state, “Trump is basically saying, ‘Russians, you can take the Baltics,’” said TV host
President-elect Donald Trump has boasted on social media about taking over Greenland, making Canada the 51st state, and wresting control of the Panama Canal.
His expansionist rhetoric has worried allies but elated enemies, with Russians viewing the statements as evidence that Trump isn’t opposed to foreign wars of conquest, as is the Kremlin, despite what he has otherwise stated.
To Russian President Vladimir Putin’s top propagandists, Trump’s statements have revealed that he would blithely invade a country unable to fight back, according to Julia Davis, an observer of Russian media and columnist at The Daily Beast.
The president-elect would expect a victory parade, like after Russia’s 2014 seizure of Crimea from Ukraine, which Trump called “genius” and “savvy.” Putin tried and failed to take the whole of Ukraine in 2022, with Kremlin insiders believing that Trump only disapproved of the war because it grew in length and cost.
The top Kremlin supporters in Russia believe that Trump can be convinced to back Russia’s expansionist goals if Putin gets a chance to influence him. They’re strongly opposed to the notion of negotiating with Trump’s Ukraine envoy, retired Lieutenant-General Keith Kellogg. The ultimate scenario for them would be to make the Russian invasion of Ukraine appear legitimate, and the recognition of their territorial requirements.
They view Trump’s statements about Greenland, Canada, and Panama as validating Russia’s current and future acquisitions.
Host Dmitry Kiselyov of Vesti Nedeli, or The Weekly News, used part of his Sunday broadcast to outline American expansionism under Trump.
“Trump isn’t joking. He is determined to expand American territorial possessions. Personally, I am convinced that he will succeed,” said Kiselyov, according to a translation by Davis.
“Trump will grab strategically important parts of the world for America … What is funny is to see whether anyone in the Old World will try to sanction the United States in response to its territorial expansion. This is when we will find out how principled the lovers of sanctions truly are,” he added.
“Think about it. If Trump gets away with all of this, inspired by his success, he might look at the rest of the globe, focus on vulnerable spots, and keep going. Where will he stop? Doesn’t it mean that others can do the same?” Kiselyov asked.
Pundits on The Evening With Vladimir Solovyov spent most of last Thursday’s broadcast celebrating how the world will change under Trump.
“Trump politely announced that the U.S. will be expanding its borders,” Soloyov pointed out, though many in the U.S. would take issue with “politely.”
Andrey Lugovoy is a member of the State Duma and was involved in the lethal poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko.
He noted on the program: “It feels like we spent the last four years in Biden’s madhouse and now we’re gradually transitioning to Trump’s circus,” though he added that it’s unclear if Trump is “joking” when he speaks about Canada, Greenland, and Panama.
“These are awesome statements! No, he is not joking … of course he isn’t joking!” Solovyov responded. “Do you think I’m kidding when I say that Finland, Warsaw, the Baltics, Moldova, and Tallinn should come back home? Do you think I’m joking? No! They should all rejoin the Russian Empire. Followed by Alaska, by the way. Give it back.”
The “way he is rationalizing it is tremendous. We should follow his example and quietly take everything back,” he added.
Lugovoy indicated how Trump’s takeover threats should embolden Russia’s violent aggression in the Ukraine. “My friends, Trump’s insane statements show that there should not be any ceasefire. Why would we need a ceasefire when we’re confidently moving forward?” Lugovoy asked.
Solyov added: “By taking Canada, Trump is basically saying, ‘Russians, you can take the Baltics.”
He underscored: “I believe that what Trump is doing benefits us greatly. Trump is totally destroying any illusions that anyone might have still had about the summit of democracies, about respecting the opinions of NATO allies.”
Professor Dmitry Evstafiev argued that “with his approach of geographical enlargement” Trump has “buried the entire collective West. There is no collective West, and it will never be united again.”
Military expert Mikhail Khodaryonok said in the wake of Trump’s statements about Canada, Greenland, and Panama, “we can now consider special military operations as the norm for resolving arguments between countries.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/kremlin-russia-donald-trump-vladimir-putin-b2672238.html
I will post it.
“When I ask him whether he’d prefer to negotiate or to keep on fighting – Surt replies emphatically: “Keep fighting.”’
Almost everyone I know does not want to stop fighting. As long as it’s possible, they will keep on fighting. Much depends on those who do not have to fight, yet are the most afraid … the West.