BREAKING NEWS: “We could run out of money.” The Russian Ministry of Finance warned of the threat of a precipitous decline in oil and gas revenues.

Russian budget oil and gas revenues in 2026 could be “much lower” than planned, warned Deputy Finance Minister Vladimir Kolychev.

According to him, the reason is Russian oil prices, which “remain low.” In December, according to the Ministry of Economic Development, the average price of a barrel of Urals fell to a five-year low of $39. And January brought no relief to oil producers, who are forced to offer discounts of up to 50% to sell crude to India and China. According to Bloomberg , Urals prices fell to $35-37 per barrel, while the budget stipulated $59.

According to Reuters calculations , the Ministry of Finance will collect 420 billion rubles in oil and gas taxes in January—46% less than in the same month a year earlier. According to Kolychev, quoted by Interfax , the authorities intend to “compensate” for the lost raw material rent by drawing on the National Welfare Fund.

As a result, “the NWF’s money may run out this year,” MMI analysts write . As of January 1, the fund had 4.1 trillion rubles of liquid assets—that is, available, unspent funds. Since the start of the war, gold reserves in the NWF have fallen by 71%, from 554 to 160 tons. Of the foreign currency reserves, only approximately $30 billion in Chinese yuan remains—the lowest since the NWF’s creation in 2008.

To cover the lost revenue, the Ministry of Finance will have to withdraw approximately 3 trillion rubles from the NWF, with another 700 billion rubles going toward investment expenses, according to MMI estimates. This will leave the fund with only 400 billion rubles—an amount sufficient to cover approximately 3-4 days of federal budget expenditures.

VTB analysts are slightly more optimistic: they estimate that 2.5 trillion rubles will have to be withdrawn from the NWF to cover the budget deficit if oil prices and the ruble exchange rate remain at current levels. Economist Dmitry Polevoy estimates the lost revenue at 1.1-1.4 trillion rubles. According to his calculations, the National Welfare Fund could last another 1.5-2 years.

By the end of 2025, the budget had a deficit of 5.7 trillion rubles—five times greater than the Finance Ministry’s initial plan. This year, the authorities planned to reduce the treasury deficit to 3.8 trillion rubles by increasing VAT, taxes on small businesses, the technology tax on equipment and electronics, and fines for individuals and businesses totaling 300 billion rubles. However, Gazprombank analysts believe

these plans are unlikely to be feasible. They estimate the budget deficit at 5-5.5 trillion rubles “due to higher growth in government spending and subdued export revenues.”