Today there are important updates from the Black Sea.

https://youtu.be/o3–IAw2O04

Here, after Russian forces stepped up their activities and provocations over the sea and airspace of NATO countries, Turkey was the first country to act, shooting down Russian reconnaissance drones without warning. Now that more incidents have followed, the Russians risk incurring Turkish wrath, which could abruptly cut off all their trade without a single attack.

Russia’s struggle to maintain influence in the Black Sea is increasingly spiraling out of control, while Ukrainian naval drones have gradually eroded Russian maritime control. Consequently, the Russian military has expanded its use of reconnaissance and attack drones in the broader Black Sea region to regain situational awareness and protect its remaining assets, including tankers of the Shadow Fleet.

In a disturbing sign of escalation, a mysterious drone, equipped with a parachute and a suspected explosive device, was recently discovered by hunters in a Romanian forest. With a wingspan of approximately two meters, Romanian authorities concluded the device was being used to observe NATO facilities or monitor military aid shipments to Ukraine. The drone was found intact, and police immediately cordoned off the area, underscoring Russia’s increasingly brazen and aggressive actions within NATO territory.

Turkey felt this pressure even more directly, as three separate Russian drones violated Turkish airspace within a few days, bringing the country closer to decisive action. The first incident occurred when a Russian drone entered Turkish airspace from the Black Sea.

Turkish air defenses responded quickly, and F-16 fighter jets intercepted the target, which was eventually shot down with an AIM-9X Sidewinder missile. Debris scattered across the rough terrain, but the message was clear: Turkey will not tolerate unauthorized military aircraft in its airspace.

The second incident was even more alarming when a Russian Orlan-10 reconnaissance drone crashed near the city of Izmit, just 50 kilometers from Istanbul. Given the distance and flight path, analysts believe the drone was launched from Russian-controlled Crimea and was tasked with monitoring the Black Sea to detect Ukrainian naval drones. The proximity of one of Turkey’s most important urban and industrial regions raised immediate concerns about the depth of Russian surveillance missions into Turkish territory.

The third case involved debris from a Russian Merlin reconnaissance drone found in western Turkey. The Merlin can remain airborne for up to ten hours, fly at altitudes of up to five kilometers, and is equipped with advanced optoelectronic sensors. Here too, the presence indicated ongoing intelligence activity and not an isolated technical malfunction.

Collectively, these three incidents crossed several Turkish red lines, as they all occurred near strategically sensitive locations, including defense industries, refineries, and naval and air bases. This pattern points to deliberate reconnaissance rather than navigational errors, as Russia attempts to observe Ukrainian naval drone activity and shipping movements in and around the straits. It also reflects a broader shift in regional security, where low-cost unmanned systems can have strategic effects far beyond their limited scope. For Turkey, the problem now extends beyond interception to early detection, attribution, and deterrence.

This escalation increases the likelihood of much harsher Turkish responses, and if Ankara considers repeated Russian drone intrusions a security threat, it could even restrict Russian civilian shipping through the Bosporus in retaliation. The consequences would be severe, as such a move would devastate Russian trade in the Black Sea and call into question the 1936 Montreux Convention, which guarantees free passage for merchant ships. Nevertheless, Novorossiysk, which handles approximately 20 percent of Russia’s oil exports, would face crippling bottlenecks. Grain exports, which are heavily dependent on southern ports, would also collapse, further increasing economic and political pressure on Moscow. Alternative routes via the Baltic Sea or the Pacific Ocean lack sufficient capacity to compensate, making any disruption in the Bosporus strategically disastrous for Russia.

Overall, Turkey is signaling that it considers Russian drone activity over the Black Sea and Turkish territory a serious and growing threat. The immediate downing of the first drone demonstrated a willingness to act, while subsequent undetected intrusions underscored the urgency of stricter airspace control.

Unlike other NATO members, Turkey is unwilling to passively accept repeated violations. If Russian drone operations continue, Ankara appears prepared not only to close its Black Sea airspace but also to escalate further and close the Bosporus, making it clear that espionage against NATO members in the region will have real and costly consequences.