Edition No220 | 09-08-2025 – This story is rapidly evolving, so may require daily coverage until it plays out. What we are seeing is the culmination of months of theatre, where expectations were toyed with, the notion of peace was teased, abused, manipulated and distorted. Now we see all these things coming together, but no real prospect of peace. No process done in good faith that could lead to negotiated peace as an outcome. Putin does not deal with any country in good faith unless they show extraordinary strength – and of a particular authoritarian bullying kind. In any case, Russia only places faith in an agreement while it benefits from the scenario. As soon as it is not beneficial, all treaties are contingent, broken and rejected, the terms flouted. So it will be here, but Putin is not dealing with people (like Trump) whom he sees as strong or a threat.
As James Sherr incisively comment today, “To paraphrase a Russian expression, against whom are you waging peace?” He also notes that every ultimatum from Trump is a prelude to a step change in reverse. He dangles all sorts of possibilities with allies and in the face of adversaries, only to drop them at a moment’s notice when the reverse gear step change is required. Secondly, Witkoff is not an emissary of peace – he is the herald and harbinger of treachery. Trump did not send him to Moscow to negotiate peace, in face to negotiate anything, but to acquiesce to a betrayal. And this is what is now unfolding. Betrayal of Ukraine, betrayal of allies, betrayal of the principles of law, justice and fairness. Betrayal even of the strength and authority of the US, which Trump is comprehensively trashing.