Olga Koval21:34, 22.06.26
A document prepared by the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus (UTC) identifies eight key signs of the country’s militarization.
Representatives of the Belarusian democratic opposition presented Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrei Sybiga with a detailed report demonstrating self-proclaimed President Alexander Lukashenko’s systematic preparation for direct participation in the war against Ukraine.
A document prepared by the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus (UTC) identified eight key signs of the country’s militarization and the conversion of its infrastructure to a military base. In particular, Deputy Chairman of the UTC Pavel Latushko emphasized that the regime has taken significant legislative, economic, and strategic measures indicating preparations for the possible deployment of the Belarusian army to combat operations.
Among the report’s key pieces of evidence is the legalization of so-called “preventive strikes” in the new Military Doctrine, adopted after Belarus renounced its neutral and non-nuclear status. Oppositionists note that the document authorizes the use of force in the event of an immediate threat near the borders and the deployment of troops beyond the borders.
At the same time, a large-scale deployment of forces is underway: the number of contract soldiers has increased by 50% since 2022, a Southern Operational Command is being established in the Ukrainian sector, SMS summonses have been introduced, and the conscription of prisoners has been authorized. Furthermore, defense budget spending has increased fivefold over four years, and the country’s military-industrial complex has been fully integrated with Russia’s.
Defense industry analysts also point to the peak of integration with the Russian army, which is reflected in the constant presence of Russian units, the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons and Oreshnik missile systems, and the involvement of Wagner PMC instructors in training Belarusian military personnel.
Construction of defensive lines continues along the borders with Ukraine and NATO countries, and transport infrastructure is being modernized to accommodate Russian heavy equipment. Signs of preparation are also being detected in the civilian sector, where the Ministry of Health has approved strict guidelines for triaging the wounded, thousands of bomb shelters have been inspected in Minsk, and mandatory reserves of petroleum products have been doubled.
New government regulations also allow for the forced formation of military convoys from civilian enterprise vehicles during continuous military exercises, which are used to covertly refine mobilization lists.
In the face of these threats, the Ukrainian side is taking symmetrical security measures. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy previously reported unusual activity on the border and Russia’s attempts to draw Minsk into a direct confrontation, particularly over plans for missile and drone strikes and possible operations in the Chernihiv-Kyiv region.
In response to the movement of Russian nuclear weapons to Belarus during joint May exercises, the Security Service of Ukraine intensified counter-sabotage checks in the northern regions.
Threats from Belarus
It should be noted that, due to concerns about Russia’s gradual involvement of Alexander Lukashenko’s regime in the fighting, Ukraine is taking steps to strengthen its defensive positions on the border with Belarus . According to The Guardian, there are currently no immediate signs of preparations for a second offensive from the Belarusian direction, but Kyiv’s leadership suspects that Moscow could use the neighboring country as a springboard for increasing pressure on Ukraine and European countries.
As a reminder, military expert and former SBU officer Ivan Stupak believes that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s ultimatum to dismantle relay stations in Belarus has left self-proclaimed leader Alexander Lukashenko facing a difficult choice between total dependence on Russia and a potential response from Ukraine.
According to the expert, Lukashenko has found himself in such a difficult situation for the first time , as the Belarusian economy, according to various estimates, is almost 70% controlled by the Russian Federation. The Kremlin is capable of blocking the operation of key facilities at any time, from oil refineries to numerous Russian-financed enterprises. Specifically, approximately 200–250 enterprises in the Belarusian military-industrial complex are fully supplied with Russian orders and funding, guaranteeing jobs in the country.
(c)UNIAN 2026