Analysts at Russia’s Sberbank allegedly estimated the probability of Russia winning the war against Ukraine at only 7%. They consider the most likely scenario to be a freeze on the war with a partial easing of sanctions.

As Censor.NET reports , this was reported by “Ukrainian News” with reference to the hacker group Black Mirror, which stated that it had received a document from the correspondence of the chairman of the board of Sberbank, German Gref.

This is an analytical document “Scenarios for Achieving Peace in the Russia-Ukraine Conflict”, dated April 2026. It considers eight possible scenarios for the development of the war.

Victory for the Russian Federation – 7%, continuation of the war for several more years – 15%

Sberbank analysts allegedly gave the highest probability – 32% – to the so-called “Trump deal.” This scenario involves freezing the war and partially lifting sanctions on Russia.

Another 22% falls under the “Korean freeze” scenario, in which the intensity of hostilities is reduced without a formal peace agreement.

The document estimated the probability that the war would last another two to three years at 15%.

At the same time, analysts estimated the chance of Russia’s military victory over Ukraine at only 7%. They assigned an even lower probability – 2% – to ending the war on Ukrainian or European terms.

Russian army losses estimated at 20-25 thousand soldiers per month

The document also allegedly contains an estimate of the losses of the Russian occupation forces. According to the data provided, they amount to 20–25 thousand servicemen per month.

Separately, the authors of the analysis considered scenarios that could dramatically change the course of the war.

They estimated the probability of an event involving a nuclear strike or an accident at a nuclear facility at 5%. They gave the same probability – 5% – to a change of government in Russia.

However, the published figures come from a document that Black Mirror claims was obtained through hacking. There is no independent verification of the authenticity of the information provided. Джерело: https://censor.net/ua/n4020323

(C)CENSOR.NET 2026