Nazar Hlamazda – 04 November 2026
On Nov. 4, the Democrats smashed their political opponents, Republicans, in the midterm elections in the United States. Though Ukraine was on the margins of topics that Americans cared about, in Kyiv, the news from the US is received with cautious optimism.
Gwara Media talked to Ukrainian experts in US politics to figure out how the changes in the Senate and House of Representatives could affect Ukraine.
Blue Wave
According to the New York Times interactive map, Democrats secured a decisive victory, taking or keeping at least 44 seats in the Senate and 228 in the House of Representatives. Enough to have a majority in both chambers.
The race was marked by historic Democratic flips in traditional Republican states. In Texas, James Talarico became the first Democrat to win US Senate elections since 1988, ending the party’s 32-year losing streak in statewide elections.
Meanwhile, in Kansas, the “Blue Wave” washed away the incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Marshall, one of the fiercest critics of aid to Ukraine. Adam Hamilton, a pro-Ukrainian Democrat, defeated Marshall, becoming the first Democrat elected to the US Senate from Kansas since 1932.
The Washington Post reported that the main reason why Republicans lost was President Donald Trump itself. According to the latest polls, 39% of voters approved of him, and 61% didn’t, with 50 percent of voters saying that they strongly disapprove of the President’s policy.
The protracted war in the Middle East and, especially, subsequent high prices for oil and diesel affected Trump’s ratings. Trump kept urging voters to “pretend he is on the ballot” despite his unpopularity, while other Republicans tried to focus on the party’s traditional issues like migration and crime to mobilize the voters.
At the same time, Democrats focused on affordability, high prices caused by tariffs and the US’s war in Iran, and healthcare, hitting the bullseye. The economy was the dominant issue for voters, nevermind Trump repeated claims that now the US has the greatest economy in history.
The Washington Post also reported that the shift of Hispanic voters and young men to Democrats helped them to take victory.
What about Ukraine?
Will Democrats increase support for Ukraine?
Since Trump took office, Ukraine has been under constant pressure from the Republican administration. The US President almost completely cut military aid for Kyiv and regularly used intelligence sharing as a tool to pressure Ukraine to accept Putin’s peace terms. However, the victory of Democrats doesn’t guarantee a substantial increase in military and financial aid for Kyiv.
Denis Sihai, the expert in US policy for the ADASTRA, a Ukrainian analytical center, said that the Democratic Party now consists of a broad coalition with different views on foreign policy. Many future lawmakers haven’t articulated their position on increasing military aid for Ukraine, while their election campaigns were mostly focused on domestic issues.
Sihai points to Abdul El-Sayed, the newly elected senator from Michigan. Although he expressed his support for Ukraine, he remains skeptical about spending money on foreign military assistance. He also hasn’t outlined a detailed proposal for increasing aid for Kyiv.
“The task for Ukrainian diplomacy and lobbying efforts in the coming weeks and months is to ascertain the position of each individual elected official and seek ways to unite Ukraine’s allies in order to advance the pro-Ukrainian agenda on Capitol Hill,” Sihai said.
Irina Krasnoshtan, an international policy expert, also doesn’t expect a dramatic shift in US policy. She believes that Democrats may strengthen pro-Ukrainian political rhetoric, including the introduction of new assistance packages into budget proposals.
At the same time, a return to the level of assistance provided by former US President Joe Biden seems unlikely to Krasnoshtan — even if legislation passes both chambers, it still needs presidential approval. Donald Trump has the power to veto legislation, and overriding that veto would require a two-thirds majority in both chambers.
Krasnoshtan said that Democrats could also increase pressure on the Trump administration to supply additional PAC-3 air defense missiles for Patriot systems or demand the full implementation of sanctions against Russia, including those introduced by former Sen. Lindsey Graham.
Therefore, the main change is not that Trump will lose his powers, but that it will become much more difficult for him to implement his policies, said Marko Kopyl, also an expert in US policy at ADASTRA.
For Ukraine, it would be a mistake to place its best on Democrats exclusively — Kyiv will have to keep in contact with both parties, especially with moderate Republicans who keep supporting the deterrence of Russia, Kopyl added.
“The main argument for Kyiv has to be not just moral, but pragmatic: supporting Ukraine weakens one of the USA’s geopolitical opponents, strengthens Europe, and allows us to keep Russian aggression at bay without participation of Washington troops. Around these arguments, Kyiv can still keep bipartisan support.”
Will Democrats hold Trump accountable?
Despite the actual increase in aid, Krasnoshtern and Sihai believe that stronger congressional oversight of Trump’s administration could make a significant difference.
Trump will still retain considerable authority on foreign policy and military affairs, but the congressional committees can conduct hearings, summon officials, and investigate the legitimacy of the administration’s decisions.
Krasnohstan said that Democrats could examine interruptions in intelligence sharing with Ukraine, Starlink disruptions, and the so-called diesel agreement between Trump and Vladimir Putin. These investigations wouldn’t reverse Trump’s decisions, but they could increase the political and reputational ramifications of them for Republicans.
Will Democrats impact peace talks between Ukraine and Russia?
Krasnoshtan said that it’s hard to expect an immediate transformation of Washington’s position on negotiations. She believes that this victory could weaken Trump politically and change how international partners perceive his negotiation authority.
Sihai also talked about additional opportunities in sanctions against Russia. He said Democrats could make it easier for pro-Ukrainian Republicans to cooperate across party lines to increase economic pressure on Moscow.
The timing matters too, Sihai said. The new Congress will not convene until Jan. 3, 2027. Sihai warns that this period could be extremely sensitive if Trump attempts to advance his version of peace agreements between Russia and Ukraine before the new congressional majority takes office. At the same time, Krasnoshtan said that it could create opportunities for Kyiv and Europe to coordinate their positions with American lawmakers in the future.
…And Europe
When asked about whether Europe should continue to strengthen its strategic autonomy from the US after the elections, Krasnoshtan said, “They have no choice but to do it.”
She said that the shift in American attitudes toward European security started long before Trump. Like Republicans, Democrats expect European countries to be greatly involved in the security of their continent.
Krasnoshtan spoke of the Pentagon’s six-month review of the presence of the US military in Europe. It was launched in June 2026, as a marker for potential changes to the American military posture. Krasnoshtan said that Democratic control could help constrain some of Trump’s most controversial decisions but wouldn’t reverse broader tendency toward greater European responsibility.
Sihai added that Washington’s strategic reorientation toward Asia began under Barack Obama, rather than Trump. He said that the US increasingly views Asia and the Middle East as its principal security priorities, however, Trump announced that the US will stop financing Israel in 2026.
Sihai said that it is essential for Europe to find a way to approach the ability to act when American support is limited. He acknowledged that Trump’s demand to European countries to increase spending on Ukraine’s defense has contributed to this process.
“Of course, we would like this pressure to be accompanied by a positive example set by the United States itself, but given the current reality, it is difficult to talk about that.”
Hi, I’m Nazar. I’ve enjoyed seeing the Blue Wave happen personally — but, working from Kharkiv we always have to think on how this change may affect Ukraine’s relationships with the USA. I wrote this article during a partialblackout in the city as Russia keeps bombing this country’s infrastructure — and I hope you’ve found it insightful. If you want to support our journalism, please consider a one-time donation or becoming a long-term member of our community.
Read more
- Why Hungary blocked two EU accession negotiation clusters for Ukraine, Moldova without explanation — and what Kyiv can do
Excellent journalism from a new (to me) Ukrainian news outlet,
The Ukrainians will be under no illusions of an easy ride. The putin wing of the once GOP still rules the U.S.
The Dems will be under pressure to deal with many domestic issues. Who knows how they will prioritize?
Roman Sheremeta commented in the last hour :
“Ukraine was betrayed by both Democrats and Republicans.
Recently, Obama said that Trump “betrayed Ukraine.” He should definitely look in the mirror first.
I remember very well what happened in 2014, when Ukraine was attacked by russia and Crimea was annexed. What did Obama do? Nothing! Even worse, he heavily pressured Ukraine’s government not to resist the russian military invasion of Crimea. He also refused to send U.S. defensive weapons to Ukraine.
But he did provide blankets to Ukrainian troops instead. And yes, he imposed some laughable sanctions.
And guess who actually reversed that policy? Yes, Trump. Of course, he did it not out of the goodness of his heart, but rather because he was pressured to do so. Still, he gave Ukraine Javelins.
Obama’s response to russia’s aggression against Georgia was even more despicable. Soon after, he basically ceded Syria to Putin. And all of this under the so-called “reset policy” with russia. So Obama should be the last person to ever mention “betrayal.”
What about Biden? Well, please remember that the Biden administration (Burns, Sullivan, Blinken) actively pressured Ukraine not to attack oil refineries in russia. U.S. officials even accused Ukraine of potentially committing “war crimes” by striking russian oil infrastructure.
Why am I saying this now?
I don’t want Ukrainians to have any illusions about Democrats controlling Congress. I do think they will be better than Trump. It is very unlikely that they will side with Putin as Trump did. But given the history, my hopes are not high.”
Attached was a photo of a young Senator Obama visiting Ukraine in 2005 to make sure that Ukraine has destroyed its defensive weapons.
Richard Littlejohn in the DM is a long time fan of Krasnov and spends much of his time with family in Florida. He seems to have finally realised he has backed the wrong horse :
“Picking unnecessary fights with allies, sucking up to that dead-eyed tyrant Putin, renaming Lake Ontario ‘Lake America’, planning to build an Arc de Triomphe-style ‘Arc de Trump’ in Washington, sticking his own name on Palm Beach airport and the Kennedy Center. If he had a horse, he’d make it a consul, like the Roman emperor Caligula.”
“The fear now is that Trump will go into full Horse-Loose-In-A-Hospital mode, thrashing out randomly at real and imagined enemies – especially if the Democrats carry out their threat to impeach him and investigate his family. The Prez is already being advised to ‘lawyer up’. “
Mykhailo Rohoza :
Reports say the Kremlin has stripped Donald Trump of his annual bonus over his disastrous election results.
Darth Putin KGB :
I regard the “Blue Wave” as yet another illegal color revolution that aims to constrain the legitimate pro-Russian regime.
Mykhailo Rohoza :
“UKRAINIAN SCUM, WE’RE TIRED OF BEATING YOU!” — TWO YEARS OF RUSSIAN TORTURE IN TAGANROG.
When Mykhailo Chaplia, an Azov officer from Kharkiv, arrived at Russia’s Pretrial Detention Center No. 2 in Taganrog, he discovered an inscription scratched into his cell wall: “Glory to Ukraine, brothers. Whoever makes it home, tell the world what is happening in Taganrog.” He survived to tell that story. On their first night, hundreds of Ukrainian prisoners were forced through corridors while guards beat them with batons, sticks, and electric shock devices. Some were so badly injured they had to be dragged away on bedsheets. Mykhailo suffered cracked ribs and broken fingers. Prisoners were forced to walk bent forward, heads down, hands behind their backs. Speaking without permission meant another beating. Dogs attacked them, tearing their uniforms and skin. When prisoners requested replacement clothing, guards mocked them and beat them again.
Mykhailo spent 17 months in a tiny cell with a wooden floor, a bench, a table, and a toilet. There was no soap, toilet paper, or basic hygiene. Two prisoners shared a single cup for drinking and washing themselves. Before captivity, he weighed 105 kilograms (231 pounds). Afterward, just 58 kilograms (128 pounds). Their food consisted of watery sauerkraut and semolina porridge with raw herring. One day, guards threw a severely ill prisoner named Serhii into his cell. His legs were swollen and purple, his body covered in electric shock marks, and he could barely move. For a month, Mykhailo carried him, washed him, and begged for soap. His reward was another beating, while Serhii was transferred elsewhere.
The psychological torture was equally brutal. Prisoners were forced to invent crimes and confess to them. Mykhailo was accused of murdering civilians and even setting fire to the Trade Unions House in Odesa, despite never having been there. Some prisoners died by suicide. “The worst feeling is when you tell someone, ‘Brother, everything will be fine,’ and then discover that another one couldn’t take it anymore.” Mykhailo refused to surrender. Every day, despite starvation and injuries, he did planks, push-ups, and squats inside his cramped cell. He repeated one thought: “I will get out and continue living. They will remain in this shit.”
On September 13, 2024, Ukraine brought him home. His wife was waiting. For five days, his eyes remained painfully red because he had not seen sunlight for two years. “It’s an incredible pleasure when you feel the wind caressing your cheek. That is freedom.” His wife had also fulfilled his old dream while he was imprisoned: opening a coffee shop called “Chaplia Charlie,” with a mustached heron on its sign. Russia had tried to destroy him, but he returned to the life he had fought to preserve.
“I reached rock bottom and pushed myself back up. I did not disgrace the honor of an Azov soldier, an officer, or a Ukrainian. And I believe I came out of there victorious.”
Roman Sheremeta :
I remember this disgusting video of Vivek Ramaswamy pledging in 2023 that he would stop all support for Ukraine if he were elected president of the United States.
He constantly insulted the Ukrainian government, calling its leaders “warlords.” He said that “Ukraine versus Russia is not a battle between good versus evil.” And he said that “Ukraine will not be admitted to NATO – not now, not ever.”
Let me use Ramaswamy’s own language to send him a message: Dear “warlord” Vivek, you have lost miserably in every election you have run in, despite spending tens of millions of dollars. The reason is that people don’t like you. They know that when you enter an election, it automatically becomes “a battle between good and evil” – and you are not on the good side. I really hope that you will never be an elected official in the United States – “not now, not ever.”
“Kyiv will have to keep in contact with both parties, especially with moderate Republicans who keep supporting the deterrence of Russia, Kopyl added.”
And we should too, by supporting Ukraine, not our individual ideologies…