Michael McFaul 

June 3, 2024

@michaelmcfaul

Professor of Political Science, Director of Freeman Spogli Institute & Hoover Senior Fellow all at Stanford University. U.S. Ambassador to Russia, 2012-2014.

Followed by Brian Whitmore and others.

Two hours for the sake of peace in Ukraine and our national interests.

When I worked at the National Security Council for the first three years of the Obama administration, I learned that presidential time is the most precious commodity in the world. Every day at the White House there was fierce competition for every minute of President Obama’s time. We had to submit detailed “packages” to justify a short meeting or a phone call for the president with another head of state. During my first two years at the White House, I was part of the team negotiating the New START treaty with Russia. Because of dysfunction at lower levels in the Russian government, Presidents Obama and Medvedev became lead negotiators, which required presidential time – phone calls or side meetings at multilateral gatherings. And every minute that Obama spent negotiating limits on ICBMs or telemetry, he was not lobbying Congress to pass Obamacare. Fights over where the president should go and what he should do on international trips were especially intense. In 2009, I won a big internal battle by convincing President Obama and his senior advisors to travel to Moscow in July 2009. But during that summit, the White House scheduling team sparked a mini-diplomatic scandal by declining Obama’s invitation to attend a formal dinner at the Kremlin so that he could instead have dinner with his family at the Ritz Carlton that night. How presidents allocate their time shows their priorities. On that trip, Obama signaled his commitment to work-life balance to both his staff and the world.

Briefing President Obama in 2009.

So, I understand the difficult decisions that President Biden’s team makes every day in deciding how to allocate his time, especially in an election year. By traveling to Europe next week, first to attend the D-Day commemoration ceremony in France and then the G7 summit in Italy (June 13-15, 2024), President Biden is clearly signaling that our allies are both his and the United States’ priority. The following month, Biden will host the NATO Summit in Washington, to mark the 75th anniversary of the strongest and most enduring alliance in the world. That too is an excellent use of the president’s time. But he should squeeze in one more event during his trip to Europe next week and stop by the Summit on Peace in Ukraine in Switzerland(June 15-16, 2024) right after the G7 in Italy.

Just two hours of presidential time at the Summit on Peace and Ukraine could achieve several U.S. national security priorities in a very short amount of time. Plus, it is a quick stop on his way home.

First, by attending this summit, Biden could associate the United States with the goal of the peace summit which “is to inspire a future peace process and to develop practical elements as well as steps towards such a process. Biden could also signal support for President Zelenskyy’s peace plan. (I wrote about it here.) Biden critics, including some American voters, wrongly claim that he is not interested in negotiating an end to the war in Ukraine, seeking only to prolong the conflict to weaken Russia. The Summit on Peace in Ukraine is the perfect platform for Biden to first endorse Zelenskyy’s ideas but also propose his own initiatives to try to end Putin’s barbaric invasion of Ukraine. 

Of course, Putin will reject these ideas. He thinks he is winning on the battlefield and therefore is in no hurry to end his invasion. He also is waiting for Donald Trump to be reelected in November, believing with good reason that President Trump would help him achieve more favorable conditions in future peace negotiations. But, by outlining his ideas for peace now, Biden would put Putin on the defensive. Putin has never published a peace plan.

Second, a Biden appearance at this peace summit in Switzerland would help American public diplomacy in Africa, Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East. Tragically, too many governments and societies in the “Global South” still do not frame Putin’s invasion of Ukraine as a war of imperialism and recolonization. As the UN abstention votes show and public opinion polls reveal, there are still too many people who wrongly blame Biden for one, triggering this war by allegedly expanding NATO and two, prolonging the war by supplying weapons to Ukraine. Even in countries like Georgia, which used to have close relations with the United States, some government officials are calling Biden and the Americans warmongers. By participating in this peace summit, Biden would signal to the rest of the world that his administration is committed to ending this war as soon as possible. Over 100 countries will have representatives, and therefore media, at this summit. It is the perfect place for Biden to give a speech on peace. At the meeting, Biden could even appoint a special envoy for peace negotiations like the Chinese have already done.

Presidents Biden Zelenskyy met at the sidelines of 2023 NATO Summit, July 12, 2023. Source: Office of the President of the United States via Wiki Commons.

Third, by attending this peace summit, which is extremely important to Zelenskyy, Biden could help reduce friction between the United States and Ukraine before the NATO summit in July. It’s clear, Ukraine will not be receiving an invitation to join NATO during the Washington summit. That outcome will be deeply disappointing to Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian society, and other NATO allies. If Biden did Zelenskyy a favor in June by attending the Switzerland summit, then Zelenskyy could return the favor to Biden and not make a big fuss about the lack of Ukraine’s invitation to join NATO in Washington in July. Neither the alliance nor Biden’s reelection campaign needs public disunity and discord at this historic summit.

(To be clear, I personally support the issuing of a formal invitation to Ukraine to join NATO at this summit, followed by a long accession process that most likely would not end until the war is over. Before the NATO summit in Vilnius last year, I wrote about this idea here. To the best of my understanding, however, this is not the current position of the Biden administration.)

Two hours of presidential time is extremely valuable. And anytime the president moves, especially across borders, hundreds of people, cars, airplanes, and decisions are involved. At the same time, Biden is flying on Air Force One, and the Swiss would provide him with a police escort from the airport to the summit venue, further reducing the time Biden would have to spend in Switzerland on his way home. It is two hours worth expending in the pursuit of multiple American interests at the same time.